Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) continues its bullish momentum, trading around $2,860 after hitting an intraday high of $2,870. The key driver behind this surge is the escalating tension between the US and China, which has sparked concerns among investors about the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies.
Furthermore, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its easing stance have kept US Treasury bond yields low, weakening the US dollar. Thus, the weaker dollar makes gold more attractive for investors, further fueling its price rally.
Looking ahead, all eyes are on the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could determine gold’s next move. If the data is weaker than expected, it could strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts, further supporting gold prices. Conversely, stronger-than-expected job data might boost the dollar and put some pressure on gold.
US Job Market Weakness Fuels Gold's Rally Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation
Recent US data shows that jobless claims rose to 219K from 208K, signaling a weaker job market. This has increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates. Lower rates make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive to investors.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration is more focused on lowering 10-year Treasury yields than on the Fed’s rate decisions. As a result, bond yields have dropped to their lowest levels since December, further supporting gold prices.
However, Federal Reserve officials are divided. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is not too worried about inflation, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan believes the job market is still strong, making rate cuts less likely for now. Despite this, the US dollar has struggled to gain strength, helping gold hold onto its gains.
Now, all eyes are on the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. If job growth slows, gold could rise further. But a strong report might boost the dollar and push gold prices lower.
Gold Prices Surge as US-China Trade War Escalates
Apart from this, China recently imposed new tariffs on select US goods in response to President Trump’s 10% tax on Chinese imports. This move has intensified trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies, raising fears of a prolonged economic conflict.
As a result, investors are shifting towards safe-haven assets like gold to protect their wealth. The uncertainty surrounding global trade policies is causing market volatility, and many fear that prolonged tensions could hurt economic growth and business stability worldwide.
Moving forward, traders will closely monitor trade developments. If tensions escalate further, gold prices may continue to rise. However, any signs of a resolution could ease market fears and limit gold’s gains. For now, gold remains well-supported by global uncertainty and shifting investor sentiment.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,862.60, up 0.24%, as the market weighs economic uncertainty and potential Federal Reserve policy shifts. Gold remains supported by safe-haven demand amid ongoing trade tensions and expectations of rate cuts, but technical indicators suggest a pivotal level is in play.
Key Technical Levels and Trend Analysis
The pivot point at $2,870.28 serves as a critical threshold for price action. A sustained break below this level could open the door for further downside toward $2,840.79, followed by stronger support at $2,824.53 and $2,810.70. These levels could attract buyers if broader risk sentiment turns defensive.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $2,882.76, with the next hurdles at $2,900.69 and $2,914.05. A close above these resistance levels would reinforce bullish momentum, potentially setting the stage for a push toward new highs.
The 50-day EMA at $2,843.26 suggests that gold remains well-supported in its current trend. However, the price is teetering around the pivot, indicating potential for short-term consolidation. If gold fails to hold $2,870, selling pressure could accelerate, leading to a sharper pullback.
The near-term outlook remains bearish below $2,870, with a recommended sell entry below this level, targeting $2,850 as a take-profit zone. A stop-loss at $2,882 is advised to mitigate risk in case of an upside breakout.
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