AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 06, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair continued its downward movement, staying around the 0.6259 level and hitting an intra-day low of 0.6255. The main reason for this decline can be traced to a few key factors.
First, the Australian Dollar (AUD) came under pressure due to weaker-than-expected Trade Balance data released earlier in the week. This news highlighted that Australia's exports were lower than anticipated, which caused the AUD to lose some strength against the US Dollar (USD).
Second, the ongoing tensions between the US and China over trade issues also contributed to a "risk-off" sentiment in the market. Traders are worried about the potential impact of these trade disputes, which is making them more cautious and pushing the AUD lower.
Lastly, although the US Dollar Index (DXY) was relatively steady at around 107.50, the weaker-than-expected US Services PMI data might have put some downward pressure on the USD.
Despite this, the overall market sentiment remains cautious, which continues to favor the US Dollar, contributing to the Australian Dollar’s struggles.
AUD/USD Under Pressure Amid Weaker Trade Data and US-China Tensions
On the AUD front, the Australian Dollar (AUD) dropped against the US Dollar (USD) after weaker-than-expected Trade Balance data was released on Thursday. Australia's trade surplus for December fell to 5,085 million AUD, missing the expected 7,000 million AUD and lower than the previous month's surplus of 6,792 million AUD.
Although exports increased by 1.1%, they slowed from November’s 4.2% rise. Meanwhile, imports surged by 5.9%, up from 1.4% in the previous month. This weaker trade data contributed to the AUD's decline.
Moreover, the ongoing US-China trade tensions added to the downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. China responded to new US tariffs with its own set of tariffs, including a 15% levy on US coal and LNG imports and a 10% tariff on US crude oil, farm equipment, and certain automobiles.
These escalating trade disputes are causing uncertainty, especially for Australia, as China is a key trading partner. Traders are closely monitoring the situation, fearing that further tensions could hurt global trade and economic growth.
Despite the trade concerns, Australia’s private sector showed some growth in January, with the Judo Bank Composite PMI rising to 51.1 from 50.2, indicating modest expansion. The Services PMI also climbed to 51.2, marking its twelfth consecutive month of growth. While the overall growth was moderate, it provided some positive news for the Australian economy. However, the combination of trade data and global risks kept the AUD under pressure.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.62631, down 0.33%, reflecting sustained bearish sentiment amid broader market weakness. The pair remains under pressure below the pivot point at $0.62917, signaling a potential continuation of the downtrend unless buyers regain control.
Immediate resistance stands at $0.63262, followed by $0.63556 and $0.63858, which align with previous price rejections. A breakout above these levels could trigger renewed bullish momentum, potentially shifting sentiment. However, given the current price action, upward movement appears constrained.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $0.62417, with additional safety nets at $0.62061 and $0.61697. A decisive break below $0.62417 could intensify selling pressure, exposing the pair to further declines.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.62218 is in close proximity to support, making it a critical level for short-term traders. A bounce from this area may indicate temporary stabilization, but sustained trading below the pivot point at $0.62917 favors the bearish outlook.
From a strategic standpoint, a sell position below $0.62915 is preferred, with a take profit target at $0.62417 and a stop loss at $0.63255 to mitigate risk. Traders should monitor price action near the 50 EMA and support levels to assess potential reversal signs.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD remains bearish below $0.62917, with resistance at $0.63262 and $0.63556.
- Support at $0.62417 is key; a break below could accelerate selling toward $0.62061.
- Sell setup below $0.62915, targeting $0.62417, with stop loss at $0.63255 for risk control.
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.62631, down 0.33%, reflecting sustained bearish sentiment amid broader market weakness. The pair remains under pressure below the pivot point at $0.62917, signaling a potential continuation of the downtrend unless buyers regain control.
Immediate resistance stands at $0.63262, followed by $0.63556 and $0.63858, which align with previous price rejections. A breakout above these levels could trigger renewed bullish momentum, potentially shifting sentiment. However, given the current price action, upward movement appears constrained.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $0.62417, with additional safety nets at $0.62061 and $0.61697. A decisive break below $0.62417 could intensify selling pressure, exposing the pair to further declines.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.62218 is in close proximity to support, making it a critical level for short-term traders. A bounce from this area may indicate temporary stabilization, but sustained trading below the pivot point at $0.62917 favors the bearish outlook.
From a strategic standpoint, a sell position below $0.62915 is preferred, with a take profit target at $0.62417 and a stop loss at $0.63255 to mitigate risk. Traders should monitor price action near the 50 EMA and support levels to assess potential reversal signs.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.62915
Take Profit – 0.62417
Stop Loss – 0.63255
Risk to Reward – 1:1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$498/ -$340
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$49/ -$34
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 04, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to continue its upward trend and turned bearish around the 0.6213 level, hitting an intra-day low of 0.6170.
However, the decline was mainly due to rising US-China trade war tensions after China retaliated against new US tariffs. China announced a 15% tariff on US coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, along with a 10% tariff on crude oil, farm equipment, and some automobiles.
Moreover, China is imposing export controls on key minerals like tungsten and molybdenum to safeguard national security. As Australia relies heavily on trade with China, these tensions increased market uncertainty, putting pressure on the Australian dollar.
Furthermore, concerns over the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) possibly cutting interest rates in February added to the AUD/USD pair’s weakness. The RBA has kept its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% since November 2023, waiting for inflation to return to its 2%-3% target before easing policy.
Market expectations remain cautious, but Westpac still predicts a total of 100 basis points in rate cuts during 2025. If the RBA signals an earlier rate cut, the AUD could face further downside pressure.
AUD/USD Under Pressure from US-China Trade Tensions and RBA Rate Cut Expectations
On the AUD front, the losses in the AUD/USD pair came after market volatility increased due to concerns over the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, Australia’s major trading partner.
President Trump hinted at speaking with China soon, but warned that if a deal wasn’t reached, tariffs could become much higher. This uncertainty around trade is adding pressure to the Australian dollar, as investors watch how these tensions will unfold.
In addition, Trump recently announced a delay in steep tariffs on Mexico and Canada after the countries agreed to deploy 10,000 soldiers to help combat drug trafficking at the US border. This decision comes right after Trump imposed heavy tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China, causing further concerns over global trade.
Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturers are shifting production to other countries to avoid these tariffs, which could affect Australia’s trade relationship with China and weaken the AUD even more.
Moreover, the Australian dollar is also under pressure from expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might cut interest rates in February. The RBA has kept rates steady at 4.35% since November 2023, waiting for inflation to fall within the target range.
With economic signs such as a decline in retail sales and a lower-than-expected PMI in China, the likelihood of a rate cut has grown. Analysts now expect a 25 basis point cut in February, which could add further weakness to the Australian dollar.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Trade Tensions, Inflation Data, and Fed Caution
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been stabilizing around 108.70 after losing some gains from the previous session. A key development was the announcement that President Trump signed an executive order to create a government-owned investment fund.
This fund could potentially help the US profit from TikTok if an American buyer is found. Trump has pushed for the US to acquire a 50% stake in the company, and TikTok has until early April to secure a deal.
In addition, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee suggested that the Fed would need to be cautious with any rate cuts due to uncertainties, including inflation risks.
Meanwhile, data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the US Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in January, indicating better-than-expected economic activity.
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index also showed inflation pressures, with an annual rise of 2.6%, keeping the Fed cautious about adjusting monetary policy.
On the trade front, President Trump has threatened 100% tariffs on BRICS nations if they try to introduce a currency alternative to challenge the US dollar.
These developments, along with the Fed's cautious stance, have contributed to the strengthening of the US dollar, impacting the AUD/USD pair.
The Australian dollar is facing pressure as global trade tensions and US monetary policy uncertainties continue to shape market sentiment.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.61872, down 0.62%, reflecting persistent bearish sentiment as the pair struggles below the key pivot point at $0.62087.
The price action remains under pressure, with the pair facing immediate resistance at $0.62568. A breakout above this level could trigger a corrective rally toward $0.62922, with further gains potentially capped at $0.63235.
On the downside, immediate support is observed at $0.61674. A decisive break below this level may accelerate selling pressure, exposing the next support levels at $0.61324 and $0.60890.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.62432 reinforces the bearish outlook, acting as a dynamic resistance level. The sustained price action below this moving average indicates that sellers maintain control.
Technical indicators further confirm the downward bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in bearish territory, suggesting the pair is not yet oversold, leaving room for additional downside.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also signals bearish momentum with a widening gap between the MACD line and the signal line.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish Bias Below $0.62087: Sustained trading below this pivot point suggests further downside toward $0.61324.
- Critical Resistance at $0.62568: A break above this level could trigger a corrective rally toward $0.62922.
- 50-EMA at $0.62432: This dynamic resistance reinforces the prevailing bearish trend.
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.61872, down 0.62%, reflecting persistent bearish sentiment as the pair struggles below the key pivot point at $0.62087.
The price action remains under pressure, with the pair facing immediate resistance at $0.62568. A breakout above this level could trigger a corrective rally toward $0.62922, with further gains potentially capped at $0.63235.
On the downside, immediate support is observed at $0.61674. A decisive break below this level may accelerate selling pressure, exposing the next support levels at $0.61324 and $0.60890.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.62432 reinforces the bearish outlook, acting as a dynamic resistance level. The sustained price action below this moving average indicates that sellers maintain control.
Technical indicators further confirm the downward bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in bearish territory, suggesting the pair is not yet oversold, leaving room for additional downside.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also signals bearish momentum with a widening gap between the MACD line and the signal line.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.62083
Take Profit – 0.61324
Stop Loss – 0.62572
Risk to Reward – 1:1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$759/ -$489
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$75/ -$48
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Jan 30, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair continued its losing streak, staying under pressure around the 0.6215 level.
The Aussie dollar has been struggling for the past four days, mainly due to a strong US dollar and cautious market sentiment.
However, the Australian dollar found some support after the release of the Export Price Index. The Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that export prices rose by 3.6% in Q4 2024, bouncing back from a 4.3% drop in Q3. This marked the first increase in export prices since Q4 2023, giving the Aussie dollar a slight boost.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remained stable around 108.00, reflecting the dollar’s strength. The Federal Reserve, as expected, kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in its January meeting.
This came after three rate cuts since September 2024, totaling 1%. With the Fed signaling a cautious approach, the US dollar held firm, keeping pressure on the AUD/USD pair.
Australian Dollar Faces Pressure Amid Rate Cut Expectations and Mixed Economic Data
On the AUD front, the Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its losing streak against the US Dollar (USD) for the fourth straight day on Thursday, but the AUD/USD pair saw some recovery after the release of key data.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that export prices rose by 3.6% in Q4 2024, bouncing back from a 4.3% decline in the previous quarter.
This marked the first increase since Q4 2023, giving the Aussie dollar a brief boost. Additionally, Australia’s Import Price Index rose by 0.2% in Q4 2024, recovering from a 1.4% drop in Q3, with surging gold prices playing a big role due to investors seeking safe-haven assets.
Meanwhile, speculation about future interest rate cuts in Australia added to market pressure on the AUD. Major banks like ANZ, CBA, Westpac, and National Australia Bank (NAB) now expect a 25 basis point rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in February, earlier than previously expected.
This is driven by easing inflationary pressures toward the end of 2024. The RBA has kept the official cash rate at 4.35% since November 2023, but it is holding out for inflation to sustainably return to its target range of 2%-3% before making any cuts, which could influence the AUD/USD pair further.
USD Strengthens Amid Fed’s Cautious Stance and Awaited US GDP Data, Putting Pressure on AUD/USD
On the US front, the US Dollar (USD) strengthened, putting pressure on the AUD/USD pair. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in its January meeting, as expected.
However, the Fed did not signal any immediate rate cuts, which helped maintain the strength of the US dollar.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the central bank would need to see significant progress on inflation or weakness in the labor market before making any changes to its policy. This cautious stance from the Fed further supported the US dollar.
Traders are now awaiting the release of the US fourth-quarter GDP data, which is expected to show a slowdown in growth, with a forecast of 2.6% compared to the previous 3.1%. Inflation concerns also linger, as the Q4 GDP Price Index is expected to rise to 2.5%, up from 1.9%.
Meanwhile, political developments, including the possibility of new tariffs proposed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, could also influence the USD’s future strength, adding uncertainty to the market.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair continues to face downward pressure, trading at $0.62202, below the $0.62428 pivot level. A stronger U.S. dollar and risk-off sentiment have kept the Australian dollar under pressure, limiting any significant recovery attempts.
Technically, the 50-day EMA at $0.62668 is reinforcing resistance, aligning with the immediate resistance at $0.62632. A break above this level could lead to a retest of $0.62927, while further bullish momentum may push prices toward $0.63235.
However, given the prevailing bearish sentiment, upside potential remains limited unless there’s a fundamental shift in market conditions.
On the downside, immediate support stands at $0.62110, with a break below this level exposing AUD/USD to further losses toward $0.61865 and $0.61648. A sustained move below $0.62110 could accelerate selling pressure, with the pair possibly extending losses if risk aversion strengthens.
From a trading perspective, a sell position below $0.62425 aligns with a take profit target at $0.61980 and a stop loss at $0.62687, reflecting the ongoing bearish momentum. The market is currently struggling to gain traction, and without a break above the pivot level, the bearish bias remains intact.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD trades below $0.62428 pivot, reinforcing a bearish outlook.
- 50-day EMA at $0.62668 remains a key resistance level.
- Break below $0.62110 could accelerate losses toward $0.61865.
The AUD/USD pair continues to face downward pressure, trading at $0.62202, below the $0.62428 pivot level. A stronger U.S. dollar and risk-off sentiment have kept the Australian dollar under pressure, limiting any significant recovery attempts.
Technically, the 50-day EMA at $0.62668 is reinforcing resistance, aligning with the immediate resistance at $0.62632. A break above this level could lead to a retest of $0.62927, while further bullish momentum may push prices toward $0.63235.
However, given the prevailing bearish sentiment, upside potential remains limited unless there’s a fundamental shift in market conditions.
On the downside, immediate support stands at $0.62110, with a break below this level exposing AUD/USD to further losses toward $0.61865 and $0.61648. A sustained move below $0.62110 could accelerate selling pressure, with the pair possibly extending losses if risk aversion strengthens.
From a trading perspective, a sell position below $0.62425 aligns with a take profit target at $0.61980 and a stop loss at $0.62687, reflecting the ongoing bearish momentum. The market is currently struggling to gain traction, and without a break above the pivot level, the bearish bias remains intact.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.62425
Take Profit – 0.61980
Stop Loss – 0.62687
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$445/ -$262
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$44/ -$26
AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish Trend Below Pivot: AUD/USD remains weak below $0.62640, targeting $0.62213 and $0.61899 as key support levels.
- 50-EMA Resistance: The 50-EMA at $0.62848 reinforces bearish sentiment, making recovery challenging in the near term.
- Trade Setup: Sell below $0.62636, with a take profit target at $0.62217 and a stop loss at $0.62924 to manage risk effectively.
The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) is trading at $0.62517, down 0.63%, as selling pressure continues to dominate. The pair remains below the critical pivot point at $0.62640, suggesting a bearish outlook in the short term.
Immediate support lies at $0.62213, with further downside potential toward $0.61899 and $0.61648 if bearish momentum accelerates.
Resistance on the upside is capped at $0.62998, followed by $0.63302 and $0.63620. For bullish sentiment to regain traction, a decisive break above the pivot and the 50-EMA at $0.62848 is necessary.
However, the broader trend appears bearish, with the 50-EMA reinforcing downside pressure as it acts as a dynamic resistance.
The technical setup suggests continued weakness, particularly as the pair struggles to reclaim the pivot point at $0.62640. Traders are eyeing $0.62213 as a key level; a confirmed break below this support could invite further selling, targeting $0.61899.
Conversely, a bounce above the pivot could see the pair testing resistance levels, contingent on market sentiment and upcoming economic catalysts.
Traders should remain cautious, as the downward trajectory aligns with ongoing concerns over commodity-linked currencies amid fluctuating global risk sentiment.
A break below $0.62636 could confirm bearish continuation, while failure to sustain losses below key supports may lead to temporary relief.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.62636
Take Profit – 0.62217
Stop Loss – 0.62924
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$419/ -$288
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$41/ -$28
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Jan 28, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair has been flashing red and remains under pressure around the 0.6247 level, hitting an intra-day low of 0.6243.
However, the decline in the pair was mainly due to the tariff threats made by US President Donald Trump. As a result, the risk-sensitive AUD has been negatively impacted by increased market uncertainty, as traders react to growing concerns about potential tariffs.
Moreover, President Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, with the aim of boosting US manufacturing.
Additionally, he revealed intentions to place tariffs on computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper. These actions have fueled risk aversion in the markets, contributing to the AUD/USD pair’s downward pressure.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Trade Policy Uncertainty, Weighing on AUD/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar has been trading near 108.00 on the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks its value against six major currencies.
Traders are closely watching key economic data, including US Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, set to be released later on Tuesday.
These reports could affect market sentiment and the strength of the USD, which has been gaining due to uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s trade policies. The US Dollar’s strength is keeping the AUD/USD pair under pressure.
Former Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has proposed new tariffs on US imports, starting at 2.5%, with the possibility of these tariffs increasing to 20%.
Trump has also indicated that he wants tariffs "much bigger" than the 2.5% figure. This uncertainty about trade policies is causing risk aversion in the markets, which is benefiting the US Dollar and weighing on the Australian Dollar (AUD).
Despite Trump’s calls for immediate interest rate cuts, traders expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady at the 4.25%-4.50% range in its January meeting.
The uncertainty around trade policies, combined with mixed US economic data such as a drop in Services PMI and a rise in Manufacturing PMI, could keep inflationary pressures in check. This cautious sentiment is strengthening the USD, which continues to impact the AUD/USD pair negatively.
China's Economic Struggles Weigh on the Australian Dollar, Further Pressuring AUD/USD
On the other hand, the losses in the AUD/USD pair could be further worsened by the limited support from China’s fresh stimulus measures.
Despite efforts to boost its equity market, including a second round of long-term stock investment programs worth 52 billion Yuan ($7.25 billion), the Australian Dollar failed to benefit.
These measures were aimed at reviving the struggling Chinese economy, but they did not provide enough support to the AUD.
China’s economic troubles continue to weigh on the Australian Dollar. In 2024, China’s Industrial Profits dropped by 3.3% year-over-year, marking the third consecutive year of decline.
The continued contraction is mainly due to weak demand, deflationary pressures, and a long slump in the property sector. These ongoing challenges in China, a key trading partner for Australia, make it difficult for the AUD to gain strength.
As a result, the Australian Dollar remains under pressure, especially with the ongoing economic struggles in China and the lack of strong support from the stimulus measures.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) is trading at $0.62517, down 0.63%, as selling pressure continues to dominate. The pair remains below the critical pivot point at $0.62640, suggesting a bearish outlook in the short term.
Immediate support lies at $0.62213, with further downside potential toward $0.61899 and $0.61648 if bearish momentum accelerates.
Resistance on the upside is capped at $0.62998, followed by $0.63302 and $0.63620. For bullish sentiment to regain traction, a decisive break above the pivot and the 50-EMA at $0.62848 is necessary.
However, the broader trend appears bearish, with the 50-EMA reinforcing downside pressure as it acts as a dynamic resistance.
The technical setup suggests continued weakness, particularly as the pair struggles to reclaim the pivot point at $0.62640. Traders are eyeing $0.62213 as a key level; a confirmed break below this support could invite further selling, targeting $0.61899.
Conversely, a bounce above the pivot could see the pair testing resistance levels, contingent on market sentiment and upcoming economic catalysts.
Traders should remain cautious, as the downward trajectory aligns with ongoing concerns over commodity-linked currencies amid fluctuating global risk sentiment.
A break below $0.62636 could confirm bearish continuation, while failure to sustain losses below key supports may lead to temporary relief.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – Jan 23, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Despite new economic measures by Chinese authorities, the AUD/USD currency pair continues its downward trend, staying under pressure around the 0.6265 level, with an intra-day low of 0.6282.
However, the main reason behind this decline is the strength of the US dollar, which gained momentum after President Donald Trump issued a memorandum directing federal agencies to investigate and address the ongoing trade deficits.
Meanwhile, traders are increasingly expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates as early as next month, which has also contributed to the weakness of the AUD/USD pair.
AUD/USD Struggles as Strong US Dollar Gains Support from Economic Data and Fed Expectations
On the data front, the broad-based US dollar is holding steady above the 108.00 level, supported by President Donald Trump’s memorandum, which directs federal agencies to address ongoing trade deficits. This has strengthened the US dollar, putting pressure on the AUD/USD currency pair.
Traders are closely watching upcoming data, including Friday’s release of the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January. These indicators are expected to give further clues about the US economy’s direction.
The US dollar could continue to rise as traders expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in January.
Moreover, Trump’s policies could push inflation higher, possibly limiting the Fed to just one more rate cut. US retail sales rose 0.4% in December, weaker than expected, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.9% year-over-year.
Therefore, the strengthening US dollar, supported by President Trump's trade policies and economic data, is putting downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. Traders expect the Fed to keep interest rates steady, which further supports the US dollar, weakening the Australian currency.
AUD/USD Under Pressure Amid US-China Tensions and Weaker Australian Markets
On the AUD front, the Australian markets are feeling the pressure from global developments, particularly the growing tension between the US and China. The US President, Donald Trump, announced a 10% tariff on Chinese imports starting February 1, citing concerns over fentanyl shipments.
In response, Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang warned that trade wars have no winners, highlighting the potential risks for both countries. These developments are concerning for Australia, given its strong trade ties with China, making the Australian economy sensitive to changes in China's economic policies.
Meanwhile, Chinese authorities have taken steps to stabilize their stock markets, such as allowing pension funds to invest more in domestic equities and introducing a pilot scheme for insurers to purchase stocks in 2025.
The People's Bank of China has also indicated that they will take measures to support the market when needed.
Despite these efforts, the S&P/ASX 200 Index fell below 8,400, primarily due to a decline in mining stocks, as weaker commodity prices impacted the sector.
This drop in Australian stocks occurred even though Wall Street posted strong gains. Investors are cautious as they await the potential impacts of President Trump's policy changes, keeping pressure on the AUD/USD currency pair.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) is trading at $0.62713, experiencing a minor decline of 0.02% as it hovers around a critical pivot point at $0.62435. The currency pair has shown resilience above this level, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.62422 providing key short-term support.
A break above immediate resistance at $0.62943 could pave the way for further gains, targeting subsequent resistance levels at $0.63342 and $0.63763, where selling pressure may intensify.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $0.62147, with additional safety nets at $0.61865 and $0.61452. A decisive move below these levels could signal a shift in market sentiment, exposing the pair to further downside risk.
The prevailing market structure suggests cautious optimism, with the pair maintaining a slightly bullish bias above the pivot, supported by steady buying interest.
Technical indicators highlight a consolidation phase, with the 50-day EMA acting as dynamic support. However, sustained upward momentum is required to confirm a breakout beyond the current range.
Market participants are closely watching upcoming economic data releases and broader risk sentiment to gauge future price action.
Traders may consider entering long positions above $0.62570, targeting $0.63210, while placing a stop loss at $0.62142 to manage downside risks.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD remains above the pivot point of $0.62435, signaling short-term bullish potential.
- Resistance at $0.62943 is a crucial barrier; a break above could drive further gains.
- The 50-day EMA at $0.62422 offers strong support, underpinning current price stability.
The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) is trading at $0.62713, experiencing a minor decline of 0.02% as it hovers around a critical pivot point at $0.62435. The currency pair has shown resilience above this level, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.62422 providing key short-term support.
A break above immediate resistance at $0.62943 could pave the way for further gains, targeting subsequent resistance levels at $0.63342 and $0.63763, where selling pressure may intensify.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $0.62147, with additional safety nets at $0.61865 and $0.61452. A decisive move below these levels could signal a shift in market sentiment, exposing the pair to further downside risk.
The prevailing market structure suggests cautious optimism, with the pair maintaining a slightly bullish bias above the pivot, supported by steady buying interest.
Technical indicators highlight a consolidation phase, with the 50-day EMA acting as dynamic support. However, sustained upward momentum is required to confirm a breakout beyond the current range.
Market participants are closely watching upcoming economic data releases and broader risk sentiment to gauge future price action.
Traders may consider entering long positions above $0.62570, targeting $0.63210, while placing a stop loss at $0.62142 to manage downside risks.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.62570
Take Profit – 0.63210
Stop Loss – 0.62142
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$640/ -$428
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$64/ -$42