AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish Bias: AUD/USD remains bearish below the Pivot Point at $0.62854 and the 50 EMA at $0.63443.
- Support Levels: Immediate support at $0.62544, with significant floors at $0.62163 and $0.61848.
- Resistance Levels: Upside resistance at $0.63271, $0.63560, and $0.63921.
AUD/USD is trading at $0.62940, down 0.01%, showing some hesitation below the Pivot Point at $0.62854. The pair is struggling to gain momentum as it remains under the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.63443, suggesting a bearish bias in the short term.
Immediate resistance is seen at $0.63271, with stronger hurdles at $0.63560 and $0.63921. A break above $0.62854 could trigger buying interest, pushing the pair towards these resistance levels.
On the downside, support is located at $0.62544, followed by more substantial floors at $0.62163 and $0.61848. A break below $0.62544 would reinforce the bearish outlook, likely leading to a test of the next support at $0.62163.
Should prices continue to fall, the key support at $0.61848 could act as a crucial area for potential buyers to step in.
The technical setup favors a bearish trend as long as AUD/USD trades below the 50 EMA at $0.63443. The 4-hour chart shows a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, highlighting the downward momentum.
The Pivot Point at $0.62854 is a critical level to watch; a break above this could invalidate the bearish bias, leading to a potential recovery towards $0.63271. Conversely, a drop below $0.62544 would confirm the bearish trend, targeting $0.62163.
For traders, the strategy remains to Buy Above $0.62851 with a Take Profit at $0.63277 and a Stop Loss at $0.62540.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.62851
Take Profit – 0.63277
Stop Loss – 0.62540
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$426/ -$311
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$42/ -$31
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 27, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to stop its bearish trend and remained under pressure around the 0.6285 level.
However, the declines were weighed down by disappointing economic data and a stronger US Dollar (USD). This marks the fifth consecutive day of losses for the Australian currency, following a series of disappointing economic data releases from Australia.
Weaker Australian Economic Data and Inflation Figures Weigh on AUD
On the data front, the Australian Private Capital Expenditure (CapEx) data for Q4 2024 revealed a contraction of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, significantly below market expectations of a 0.8% increase. This unexpected decline follows a revised 1.6% growth in the previous quarter.
However, the weaker-than-anticipated business investment figures have raised concerns about the strength of the Australian economy, contributing to the bearish sentiment surrounding the AUD.
The decline in CapEx has added to worries about future economic growth, weighing on investor confidence and further pressuring the Australian dollar.
Moreover, Australia's monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January showed a 2.5% year-over-year increase, falling short of market expectations of a 2.6% rise, signaling weaker inflation momentum.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser also expressed cautious optimism, stating that inflation may improve but emphasizing the need for concrete results, especially given the tightness in the Australian labor market, which continues to pose challenges to controlling inflation.
Therefore, the weaker-than-expected economic data and inflation figures have increased bearish sentiment around the AUD, contributing to downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair, potentially leading to further declines.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Strong Economic Data and Geopolitical Risks
On the other side, the US Dollar remained bullish, buoyed by stronger-than-expected US economic data and geopolitical factors.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened, reaching near 106.50, as traders assessed the strength of the US economy and the prospects of continued Federal Reserve policy tightening.
Federal Reserve officials, including Raphael Bostic, have reiterated that interest rates should remain at current levels to continue exerting downward pressure on inflation.
Furthermore, US President Donald Trump’s statements regarding tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, coupled with tightening controls on chip exports to China, added fuel to concerns over a potential trade war.
These geopolitical risks boosted the demand for the US Dollar as a safe haven, further weighing on the AUD/USD currency pair.
PBOC Actions and US-China Trade Tensions Add to Pressure
Apart from this, the Australian Dollar also faced pressure from developments in China, Australia’s largest trading partner. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) took steps to support its banking sector by issuing special treasury bonds to strengthen the capital of state-owned banks.
Despite this action help stabilize China’s economy and potentially boost demand for Australian exports, the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China continue to heighten market uncertainty, which could still weigh on the AUD.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is trading at $0.62940, down 0.01%, showing some hesitation below the Pivot Point at $0.62854. The pair is struggling to gain momentum as it remains under the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.63443, suggesting a bearish bias in the short term.
Immediate resistance is seen at $0.63271, with stronger hurdles at $0.63560 and $0.63921. A break above $0.62854 could trigger buying interest, pushing the pair towards these resistance levels.
On the downside, support is located at $0.62544, followed by more substantial floors at $0.62163 and $0.61848. A break below $0.62544 would reinforce the bearish outlook, likely leading to a test of the next support at $0.62163.
Should prices continue to fall, the key support at $0.61848 could act as a crucial area for potential buyers to step in.
The technical setup favors a bearish trend as long as AUD/USD trades below the 50 EMA at $0.63443. The 4-hour chart shows a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, highlighting the downward momentum.
The Pivot Point at $0.62854 is a critical level to watch; a break above this could invalidate the bearish bias, leading to a potential recovery towards $0.63271. Conversely, a drop below $0.62544 would confirm the bearish trend, targeting $0.62163.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 25, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair struggled to maintain its upward momentum and reversed direction around the 0.6340 level, hitting an intra-day low of 0.6334 level.
However, the initial weakness in the US Dollar failed to sustain, as the dollar later recovered, contributing to the bearish move in the AUD/USD pair.
Investors are closely awaiting Australia's monthly inflation report, scheduled for release on Wednesday, which is expected to provide critical insights into the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) future monetary policy.
This comes after the RBA’s recent hawkish rate cut, making the report even more significant for market participants.
On the other hand, the AUD/USD pair faces further challenges due to rising risk sentiment, particularly after US President Donald Trump’s comments on Monday regarding the imposition of sweeping tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico.
However, losses in the AUD/USD pair could be limited as Australia’s key trading partner, China, released its 2025 annual policy statement on Sunday.
AUD/USD Under Pressure Amid Inflation Data, China’s Economic Moves, and US Tariff Risks
On the AUD front, the Australia’s monthly inflation report due on Wednesday is attracting investor attention. The report is expected to provide important insights into the future of monetary policy, especially after the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) recent hawkish rate cut.
The data could give clues on whether the RBA will continue with its tightening measures or adjust its approach based on inflation trends.
Meanwhile, China, a key trading partner of Australia, is making moves in its economy. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) injected CNY300 billion into the financial system via the one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), keeping the rate steady at 2%. In addition, they pumped CNY318.5 billion into the market through seven-day reverse repos at 1.50%.
On the other hand, the AUD/USD pair is facing some challenges due to rising risk sentiment. US President Donald Trump’s comments on Monday about moving forward with US tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico have added to the uncertainty.
The tariffs, set to kick in next week, could affect global markets. However, the AUD is getting some support from China’s efforts to boost its economy, with policies aimed at rural reform and revitalizing the property market.
USD Weakens Amid Fed Uncertainty, Mixed Economic Data, and US-China Tensions
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar is gaining strength, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) climbing near 106.50. At the same time, US Treasury bond yields are also rising, with the 2-year yield at 4.14% and the 10-year yield at 4.37%.
Investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s next move, especially after Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Monday that the central bank needs more clarity before deciding on interest rate cuts. This cautious stance is supporting the USD, putting pressure on the AUD/USD pair.
On the data front, the US Composite PMI, which reflects overall economic activity, dropped to 50.4 in February from 52.7 in the previous month. The Services PMI declined to 49.7, falling short of expectations, while the Manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 51.6, beating forecasts.
Meanwhile, US jobless claims rose last week, with Initial Jobless Claims climbing to 219,000, higher than the expected 215,000. This suggests that the US job market is showing some weakness, which could weigh on the USD.
Furthermore, the former President Donald Trump signed a memorandum on Friday instructing US officials to limit Chinese investments in key industries. This move aims to protect national security but could escalate tensions between the US and China. Given China’s strong trade ties with Australia, any economic disruptions could impact the Australian Dollar.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is trading at $0.63539, down 0.01%, reflecting cautious sentiment as the pair hovers near its pivot point of $0.63343.
This level is crucial as it acts as a tipping point between bullish and bearish momentum. Holding above the pivot keeps bullish hopes alive, with immediate resistance at $0.63716.
A breakout above this resistance could pave the way for gains towards $0.64057, followed by the next target at $0.64324 if bullish momentum sustains.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $0.63067, and a break below could trigger a decline towards $0.62703. If selling pressure intensifies, the next major support is at $0.62331, signaling potential for a deeper pullback.
The 50 EMA is currently at $0.63671, acting as dynamic resistance. The pair’s inability to close above this level indicates short-term bearishness amidst broader market uncertainty.
The technical outlook suggests a cautious buy above the pivot of $0.63343. An entry at this level, with a take profit at $0.63926 and a stop loss at $0.63058, offers a favorable risk-reward ratio.
However, traders should wait for confirmation in the form of volume spikes or candlestick patterns to validate the bullish bias.
Conversely, a break below $0.63343 would shift the sentiment to bearish, likely driving prices towards $0.63067 and potentially further to $0.62703.
The overall market sentiment remains mixed, influenced by global economic uncertainties and fluctuations in commodity prices.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bullish Above $0.63343: Holding above the pivot targets $0.63716 and $0.64057. A break above $0.64324 would confirm a bullish trend.
- Bearish Below $0.63343: A breakdown could see declines towards $0.63067 and $0.62703, signaling further downside risk.
- Technical Setup: 50 EMA at $0.63671 acts as dynamic resistance. Watch for volume spikes and candlestick confirmations for directional clues.
AUD/USD is trading at $0.63539, down 0.01%, reflecting cautious sentiment as the pair hovers near its pivot point of $0.63343.
This level is crucial as it acts as a tipping point between bullish and bearish momentum. Holding above the pivot keeps bullish hopes alive, with immediate resistance at $0.63716.
A breakout above this resistance could pave the way for gains towards $0.64057, followed by the next target at $0.64324 if bullish momentum sustains.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $0.63067, and a break below could trigger a decline towards $0.62703. If selling pressure intensifies, the next major support is at $0.62331, signaling potential for a deeper pullback.
The 50 EMA is currently at $0.63671, acting as dynamic resistance. The pair’s inability to close above this level indicates short-term bearishness amidst broader market uncertainty.
The technical outlook suggests a cautious buy above the pivot of $0.63343. An entry at this level, with a take profit at $0.63926 and a stop loss at $0.63058, offers a favorable risk-reward ratio.
However, traders should wait for confirmation in the form of volume spikes or candlestick patterns to validate the bullish bias.
Conversely, a break below $0.63343 would shift the sentiment to bearish, likely driving prices towards $0.63067 and potentially further to $0.62703.
The overall market sentiment remains mixed, influenced by global economic uncertainties and fluctuations in commodity prices.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.63343
Take Profit – 0.63926
Stop Loss – 0.63058
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$583/ -$285
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$58/ -$28
AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bullish Momentum: AUD/USD remains bullish above $0.63343, targeting $0.64057 and $0.64324.
- Dynamic Support: 50-day EMA at $0.63172 reinforces buying interest.
- Risk of Pullback: A break below $0.63343 could trigger short-term selling pressure.
AUD/USD is trading at $0.63623, down by 0.01%, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. The pair is currently holding above the key pivot point at $0.63343, indicating a potential rebound if support remains intact.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.63172 is acting as dynamic support, reinforcing a cautiously bullish outlook. Immediate resistance is located at $0.64057, with a breakout above this level paving the way towards $0.64324 and $0.64606.
A successful move above $0.64057 could trigger renewed buying interest, pushing prices higher in the short term.
On the downside, initial support lies at $0.63067, with further safety nets at $0.62703 and $0.62331. A break below $0.63343 would shift the momentum to bearish, potentially triggering selling pressure towards the lower support levels.
The current price action suggests consolidation within a tight range, with traders awaiting a decisive breakout for directional clarity.
From a technical perspective, the bullish case is supported by the ascending trendline and the 50-day EMA. However, a failure to maintain support above $0.63343 could expose the pair to a corrective pullback.
For now, AUD/USD remains cautiously bullish, but a close watch on key support and resistance levels is advisable.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.63347
Take Profit – 0.63930
Stop Loss – 0.63062
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$778/ -$285
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$58/ -$28
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 20, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair extended its bullish rally and remained well-bid around the 0.6376 level, hitting an intra-day high of 0.6380.
The bullish momentum was supported by strong Australian employment data, which showed a rise in jobs, boosting confidence in the economy.
Moreover, China’s decision to keep its interest rates steady provided further support, as Australia’s economy is closely tied to China due to trade relations. These factors helped the Aussie Dollar hold its gains against the US Dollar.
However, the upside for AUD/USD was limited as market sentiment turned cautious. Investors grew concerned over fresh tariff threats from former US President Donald Trump, raising fears of potential trade tensions.
Meanwhile, the latest FOMC minutes from January’s meeting signaled a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve, with officials hesitant about cutting interest rates too soon. This strengthened the US Dollar and kept AUD/USD from rising further.
At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered around 107.00, reflecting the USD’s resilience. US Treasury yields also remained elevated, with the 2-year note at 4.26% and the 10-year note at 4.52%, signaling strong demand for US assets.
These factors created a challenging environment for AUD/USD, keeping gains in check despite initial strength.
Stronger US Dollar and Trade Tensions Limit AUD/USD Gains
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar remained strong, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovering around 107.00.
This strength was supported by high US Treasury yields, with the 2-year note at 4.26% and the 10-year note at 4.52%.
The steady demand for US assets kept the USD firm, making it difficult for the AUD/USD pair to extend its gains.
On the data front, the latest Federal Reserve (FOMC) Meeting Minutes confirmed that interest rates would remain unchanged for now. Policymakers stressed the need to monitor inflation, job growth, and economic activity before making any rate cuts.
Several Fed officials, including Austan Goolsbee and Mary Daly, noted that while inflation has eased, it is still too high for immediate policy changes. This cautious stance strengthened the USD, limiting upward movement in AUD/USD.
Apart from this, former US President Donald Trump confirmed a 25% tariff on pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports starting in April, along with maintaining auto tariffs at the same rate.
This raised concerns about global trade tensions, weighing on market sentiment. As a result, the AUD struggled to gain momentum despite earlier support from positive domestic employment data and China’s stable interest rate decision.
AUD/USD Struggles Amid RBA Rate Cut and US Trade Concerns
On the AUD front, the release of domestic employment data helped the Australian Dollar hold its gains against the US Dollar. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1% in January from 4.0% in December, in line with expectations.
Meanwhile, employment increased by 44K jobs, higher than the forecast of 20K but lower than December’s revised 60K.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser stated that the labor market remains strong and that the central bank is closely monitoring inflation before making any major policy changes.
However, the AUD/USD pair faced pressure after the RBA unexpectedly cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 4.10%, marking its first rate cut in four years.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock acknowledged the economic impact of high interest rates but warned that inflation remains a concern.
While markets expect further rate cuts, the RBA has not confirmed any future decisions, creating uncertainty for the AUD.
Furthermore, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) kept its Loan Prime Rates unchanged, providing limited support for the Aussie Dollar.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is trading at $0.63623, down by 0.01%, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. The pair is currently holding above the key pivot point at $0.63343, indicating a potential rebound if support remains intact.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.63172 is acting as dynamic support, reinforcing a cautiously bullish outlook. Immediate resistance is located at $0.64057, with a breakout above this level paving the way towards $0.64324 and $0.64606.
A successful move above $0.64057 could trigger renewed buying interest, pushing prices higher in the short term.
On the downside, initial support lies at $0.63067, with further safety nets at $0.62703 and $0.62331. A break below $0.63343 would shift the momentum to bearish, potentially triggering selling pressure towards the lower support levels.
The current price action suggests consolidation within a tight range, with traders awaiting a decisive breakout for directional clarity.
From a technical perspective, the bullish case is supported by the ascending trendline and the 50-day EMA. However, a failure to maintain support above $0.63343 could expose the pair to a corrective pullback.
For now, AUD/USD remains cautiously bullish, but a close watch on key support and resistance levels is advisable.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 18, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD pair extended its bearish trend, hovering around the 0.6355 level after hitting an intra-day low of 0.6334.
The decline came in response to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy decision on Tuesday, where the central bank lowered its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 4.10%, marking the first rate cut in four years.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against six major currencies, rebounded after three consecutive losing sessions, supported by rising US Treasury yields. This upward momentum in the USD further pressured the AUD/USD pair.
RBA Cuts Interest Rates, Banks Follow, as Inflation Slows in Australia
On the AUD front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) made a key decision on Tuesday, cutting its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 4.10%. This marked the first rate cut in four years, as expected by many analysts.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock stated that while high interest rates have made an impact on the economy, it’s still too early to say inflation is fully under control. She also mentioned that the job market has been stronger than expected, and further rate cuts are not guaranteed.
Following the RBA's decision, Australia's major banks, including CBA, NAB, ANZ, and Westpac, also lowered their interest rates by 25 basis points.
This rate cut came after inflation data for December showed slowing price pressures. Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose less than expected in the last quarter of 2024, with the annualized rate dropping from 3.5% to 3.2%, providing some relief.
US Dollar Strengthens as Fed Officials Address Inflation and Economic Growth Concerns
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar Index (DXY) has edged higher, trading around 106.80 after three days of losses. The increase comes as US Treasury yields rise, with the 2-year and 10-year bond yields standing at 4.26% and 4.50%, respectively. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman noted that rising asset prices might slow the Fed's progress on inflation.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller also addressed inflation concerns, admitting that while it has improved, progress has been slow. He emphasized that the Fed must base decisions on data rather than policy uncertainty.
Meanwhile, the US Census Bureau reported a 0.9% drop in retail sales for January, which was worse than expected, following a 0.7% increase in December. This weaker-than-expected retail data could influence the Fed's future policy decisions.
In addition, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Fed does not need to rush into rate cuts due to strong job growth and solid economic performance. He also mentioned that US President Trump's tariffs could add inflationary pressures, making it harder for the central bank to reduce rates.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) is trading at $0.63550, maintaining a neutral stance as traders assess key support and resistance levels. The pair is holding above the pivot point at $0.63343, suggesting a slight bullish bias, reinforced by the 50-day EMA at $0.63214 acting as a dynamic support level.
Immediate resistance is seen at $0.63744, followed by $0.64057 and $0.64324. A breakout above these levels could trigger fresh buying momentum, pushing the pair toward the next key technical zones.
On the downside, immediate support is located at $0.63067, with further cushions at $0.62703 and $0.62331. A break below these support levels could indicate a shift in sentiment, leading to deeper losses.
From a technical perspective, AUD/USD remains in a consolidative phase, oscillating between well-defined support and resistance levels.
A decisive move above $0.63744 could confirm a bullish breakout, potentially attracting buyers targeting $0.64057 and beyond. Conversely, if sellers regain control and push the price below $0.63067, the pair may enter a more pronounced downtrend.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD holds above the pivot at $0.63343, with the 50-day EMA providing dynamic support.
- Immediate resistance at $0.63744; a breakout could push prices toward $0.64324.
- A drop below $0.63067 may accelerate losses toward $0.62703 and $0.62331.
The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) is trading at $0.63550, maintaining a neutral stance as traders assess key support and resistance levels. The pair is holding above the pivot point at $0.63343, suggesting a slight bullish bias, reinforced by the 50-day EMA at $0.63214 acting as a dynamic support level.
Immediate resistance is seen at $0.63744, followed by $0.64057 and $0.64324. A breakout above these levels could trigger fresh buying momentum, pushing the pair toward the next key technical zones.
On the downside, immediate support is located at $0.63067, with further cushions at $0.62703 and $0.62331. A break below these support levels could indicate a shift in sentiment, leading to deeper losses.
From a technical perspective, AUD/USD remains in a consolidative phase, oscillating between well-defined support and resistance levels.
A decisive move above $0.63744 could confirm a bullish breakout, potentially attracting buyers targeting $0.64057 and beyond. Conversely, if sellers regain control and push the price below $0.63067, the pair may enter a more pronounced downtrend.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.63345
Take Profit – 0.63865
Stop Loss – 0.63067
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$520/ -$278
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$52/ -$27
AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD remains bullish above $0.62860, with $0.63149 as the next key resistance.
- 50-day EMA at $0.62845 supports the uptrend, keeping buyers in control.
- Break above $0.63149 may push the pair toward $0.63357, while a drop below $0.62665 could signal renewed selling pressure.
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.62926, hovering above its pivot point of $0.62860. The pair is attempting to sustain its modest upside momentum, supported by the 50-day EMA at $0.62845, which reinforces near-term bullish sentiment.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $0.63149, with a breakout paving the way for a move towards $0.63357 and potentially $0.63568 if buyers maintain control. A sustained rally above these levels would indicate growing strength in the Australian dollar, driven by risk appetite and a softening U.S. dollar.
Conversely, immediate support is located at $0.62665, followed by $0.62438 and $0.62214. A decisive drop below these levels would expose AUD/USD to further losses, increasing the likelihood of a bearish reversal.
The preferred entry strategy is to buy above $0.62863, targeting $0.63253 as a take-profit level, while stop-loss is set at $0.62662 to manage downside risk.
Overall, the pair remains bullish above $0.62860, with a break above $0.63149 likely to confirm a stronger uptrend. However, traders should monitor price action closely, as a failure to hold above support levels could shift sentiment in favor of the bears.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.62863
Take Profit – 0.63253
Stop Loss – 0.62662
Risk to Reward – 1:1.9
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$390/ -$201
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$39/ -$20
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 13, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair struggled to recover and stayed under pressure around the 0.6270 level, even dropping to an intra-day low of 0.6264.
However, the reason for this downward trend can be linked to growing fears of a global trade war. The US is expected to announce new tariffs, which could hurt global trade and weaken riskier currencies like the Australian Dollar (AUD).
Despite this pressure, the AUD later found some support after Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations rose to 4.6% in February, up from 4.0% previously.
However, the gains in the AUD remain limited as traders await key US economic data. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation report, due later in the day, could influence the US Dollar’s (USD) movement.
If the data shows higher-than-expected inflation, it could strengthen the USD by increasing the chances of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher. This would add further pressure on the AUD/USD pair.
US Dollar Weakness and Trade Tensions Impact AUD/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been losing traction and remains under pressure as the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades around 108.00.
This weakness comes after US inflation data showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3.0% year-over-year in January, slightly higher than the expected 2.9%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, also increased to 3.3% from 3.2%.
These higher inflation figures have lowered expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
However, the CME FedWatch Tool now suggests only a 30% chance of a rate cut in June. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced this view, stating that strong job growth and rising prices mean there’s no rush to lower rates.
Meanwhile, a Reuters poll shows that most economists now expect the Fed to delay cutting rates until later this year.
For the AUD/USD pair, the weakening US Dollar provides some support, but gains remain limited due to ongoing trade concerns. US President Donald Trump has expanded steel and aluminum tariffs by 25%, affecting key allies like Australia.
This move has raised fears of further trade tensions, which could negatively impact riskier currencies like the Australian Dollar (AUD).
Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady, with officials like Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack emphasizing a patient approach. Investors now await more US economic data, as any surprises could influence the AUD/USD pair’s direction in the coming days.
AUD/USD Faces Pressure Amid Trade Tensions and RBA Rate Cut Expectations
On the AUD front, the Australian Dollar (AUD) managed to gain some ground against the US Dollar (USD) after Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations rose to 4.6% in February from 4.0% previously.
This increase suggests that inflation pressures remain, which could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy. However, the AUD’s gains were limited due to growing concerns over a potential global trade war.
US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff hike on imports, sparking fears of economic strain. Traders are also closely watching the US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation report, which could impact the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move on interest rates.
Meanwhile, trade tensions between the US and Australia have added more pressure on the AUD/USD pair.
Trump’s trade adviser, Peter Navarro, accused Australia of damaging the aluminum market, increasing uncertainty about whether Australia will receive exemptions from the new tariffs.
Moreover, expectations for an RBA interest rate cut are rising, with a 95% chance of rates being lowered from 4.35% to 4.10% in the coming months. If the RBA moves forward with a rate cut, the AUD could face further downside against the USD.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.62926, hovering above its pivot point of $0.62860. The pair is attempting to sustain its modest upside momentum, supported by the 50-day EMA at $0.62845, which reinforces near-term bullish sentiment.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $0.63149, with a breakout paving the way for a move towards $0.63357 and potentially $0.63568 if buyers maintain control. A sustained rally above these levels would indicate growing strength in the Australian dollar, driven by risk appetite and a softening U.S. dollar.
Conversely, immediate support is located at $0.62665, followed by $0.62438 and $0.62214. A decisive drop below these levels would expose AUD/USD to further losses, increasing the likelihood of a bearish reversal.
The preferred entry strategy is to buy above $0.62863, targeting $0.63253 as a take-profit level, while stop-loss is set at $0.62662 to manage downside risk.
Overall, the pair remains bullish above $0.62860, with a break above $0.63149 likely to confirm a stronger uptrend. However, traders should monitor price action closely, as a failure to hold above support levels could shift sentiment in favor of the bears.
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