AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD trades within a tightening triangle pattern
- $0.62650 serves as key technical pivot and entry level
- Break above $0.63130 could trigger broader upside momentum
The Australian dollar is trading near $0.6299, showing signs of bullish momentum after rebounding from the $0.62650 support zone.
This level, which aligns with the ascending trendline and previous demand area, has proven to be a key pivot in recent sessions.
The 50-period SMA at $0.62868 is now being tested as near-term support after a strong upward move that briefly reached resistance at $0.63130.
Price action remains compressed within a broader symmetrical triangle pattern, with lower highs forming against a gradually rising support base.
A break above $0.63130 would signal renewed bullish control, potentially targeting the next resistance levels at $0.63406 and $0.63634.
On the downside, a sustained move below $0.62650 would expose deeper supports at $0.62333 and $0.62255. If breached, this could trigger a broader breakdown toward the base of the pattern near $0.61973.
The RSI at 55.39 shows mild bullish momentum, holding above its moving average. However, traders should watch for a confirmed close above $0.63130 before anticipating any significant upside extension.
Entry above $0.62650 remains valid while price holds trendline support. Targets lie near $0.63130 with a protective stop at $0.62333.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.62650
Take Profit – 0.63130
Stop Loss – 0.62333
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$480/ -$317
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$48/ -$31
AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 03, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair is seeing a strong rise, moving towards a two-week high of 0.6365. The Australian Dollar (AUD) is strengthening as the US Dollar (USD) experiences a significant sell-off.
This decline in the dollar is driven by growing concerns among traders that the newly introduced tariffs by President Donald Trump could push the US economy into a recession in the near term.
US Dollar Faces Intense Sell-Off
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has experienced a sharp decline, with the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against six major currencies, dropping more than 2% to near 102.00.
This marks the largest one-day correction in years, highlighting significant weakness in the USD. However, the key factor behind this sell-off is President Trump's announcement of new tariffs on imported goods to the US, set to take effect on April 5.
On Wednesday, President Trump introduced a reciprocal tariff plan, imposing a 10% baseline levy on all imports, with additional tariffs ranging from 10% to 49% depending on the country.
Market participants are worried that these broad tariffs could drive inflation and negatively impact US economic growth, potentially leading to stagflation.
Hence, this scenario would make it more challenging for the Federal Reserve to manage the economy and could slow down future recovery.
Impact on Australia and China
Therefore, the impact of these tariffs extends beyond US borders, particularly affecting Australia. With the US imposing a 34% increase in tariffs on Chinese products, in addition to a 20% levy already imposed on Chinese goods, Australia’s economy could face further pressures.
This is due to Australia's significant trade relationship with China, with China being one of its largest trading partners. However, the concerns over China’s economic outlook are growing, weighing on the Australian Dollar (AUD).
China has already urged the US to reconsider its tariff strategy, warning that countermeasures may be implemented to safeguard its economic interests. This ongoing trade tension between the US and China adds to the uncertainties, especially for countries like Australia that depend heavily on exports to China.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar is trading near $0.6299, showing signs of bullish momentum after rebounding from the $0.62650 support zone.
This level, which aligns with the ascending trendline and previous demand area, has proven to be a key pivot in recent sessions.
The 50-period SMA at $0.62868 is now being tested as near-term support after a strong upward move that briefly reached resistance at $0.63130.
Price action remains compressed within a broader symmetrical triangle pattern, with lower highs forming against a gradually rising support base.
A break above $0.63130 would signal renewed bullish control, potentially targeting the next resistance levels at $0.63406 and $0.63634.
On the downside, a sustained move below $0.62650 would expose deeper supports at $0.62333 and $0.62255. If breached, this could trigger a broader breakdown toward the base of the pattern near $0.61973.
The RSI at 55.39 shows mild bullish momentum, holding above its moving average. However, traders should watch for a confirmed close above $0.63130 before anticipating any significant upside extension.
Entry above $0.62650 remains valid while price holds trendline support. Targets lie near $0.63130 with a protective stop at $0.62333.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD rejected from descending trendline and 50-SMA near $0.6290
- RSI confirms bearish momentum under 50
- Breakdown below $0.6250 could target $0.6218 in the near term
The Australian Dollar remains under sustained selling pressure, with AUD/USD extending its downside drift below the 50-period simple moving average and clinging to the lower bounds of a descending trend channel.
After failing to sustain gains above the $0.6290 region, price broke below the key $0.6289 SMA and is now positioned precariously near short-term support at $0.6250. The inability to retake the upper trendline or the moving average reflects persistent bearish sentiment.
The recent rejection from the $0.6330 resistance—coupled with the channel breakdown—points to an increasing probability of continuation toward the next key horizontal support at $0.6217.
Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish outlook: the RSI is hovering at 41.30, below the midline and signaling weak upside momentum, while the price remains capped under a firm downtrend line that has held since March 19.
A confirmed breach below $0.6250 could accelerate losses toward the $0.6218 and $0.6188 support levels. Meanwhile, resistance continues to stack at $0.6291 and $0.6330, with any rebounds likely to be short-lived unless the pair closes decisively above the falling trendline and 50-SMA.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.62911
Take Profit – 0.62176
Stop Loss – 0.63294
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$735/ -$383
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$73/ -$38
AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 01, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The Australian Dollar (AUD) edged higher on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held the Official Cash Rate at 4.10% during its April policy meeting—an outcome widely expected by markets.
In the post-meeting statement, the RBA struck a cautious tone, emphasizing ongoing concerns about the persistence of inflation and heightened geopolitical tensions.
The central bank acknowledged that recent U.S. tariff rhetoric is weighing on global business confidence and contributing to an increasingly uncertain trade environment.
Governor Michele Bullock reinforced the board’s cautious stance, noting that policymakers are not yet prepared to discuss rate cuts. “We have to be careful not to get ahead of ourselves on policy,” she said, confirming that no firm decisions were made regarding a May move. The RBA’s wait-and-see approach comes as inflation data remains sticky, and global risk sentiment stays fragile.
China Data and U.S. Tariff Uncertainty Shape Sentiment
While the RBA decision offered short-term support for the Aussie, global trade risks continue to act as a limiting factor.
Market participants remain wary ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement on Wednesday, which he confirmed would apply to all countries—not just key trading partners.
Such policies could dampen risk sentiment and, by extension, weigh on the AUD, given its sensitivity to global trade flows.
On a more supportive note, economic data from China—Australia’s largest trading partner—surprised to the upside.
China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in March, while the NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs also posted solid gains, offering signs of stabilization in China’s economic activity.
This data provided a modest tailwind for the Aussie, signaling potential demand strength in regional trade.
Mixed Domestic Data Keeps RBA Cautious
Domestically, February retail sales rose 0.2% month-over-month, falling short of market expectations for a 0.3% gain and down from January’s 0.3% increase.
While not alarming, the miss underscores tepid consumer momentum, which could keep the RBA on the sidelines in the near term.
Looking ahead, traders will closely watch U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI data later today for further direction in AUD/USD.
Until then, the Aussie remains supported near term, but upside potential could remain capped by global uncertainty.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian Dollar remains under sustained selling pressure, with AUD/USD extending its downside drift below the 50-period simple moving average and clinging to the lower bounds of a descending trend channel.
After failing to sustain gains above the $0.6290 region, price broke below the key $0.6289 SMA and is now positioned precariously near short-term support at $0.6250. The inability to retake the upper trendline or the moving average reflects persistent bearish sentiment.
The recent rejection from the $0.6330 resistance—coupled with the channel breakdown—points to an increasing probability of continuation toward the next key horizontal support at $0.6217.
Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish outlook: the RSI is hovering at 41.30, below the midline and signaling weak upside momentum, while the price remains capped under a firm downtrend line that has held since March 19.
A confirmed breach below $0.6250 could accelerate losses toward the $0.6218 and $0.6188 support levels. Meanwhile, resistance continues to stack at $0.6291 and $0.6330, with any rebounds likely to be short-lived unless the pair closes decisively above the falling trendline and 50-SMA.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 27, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair experienced notable weakness, falling to a low of 0.6615. This decline was primarily driven by fresh concerns over US auto tariffs, a more cautious outlook from the Federal Reserve, and the anticipation of Chinese economic stimulus.
However, the Australian Dollar (AUD) managed to find some support, aided by Australia's strong trade relationships and commodity exports. Now, the AUD/USD pair has rebounded, reaching an intra-day high of 0.6319, successfully recovering its earlier losses.
US Auto Tariffs Escalate Trade Tensions, Weigh on Market Sentiment
The AUD/USD pair came under pressure after President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on auto imports, set to take effect on April 2.
This move has raised concerns about escalating global trade tensions, with investors worried about the potential economic impact of the tariffs.
Additionally, Trump suggested the possibility of imposing tariffs on copper imports. While this could benefit Australia’s copper-exporting economy, it also added to the overall uncertainty in global markets.
Despite the tariff concerns, the market received some relief when Trump offered a one-month reprieve for auto parts imports. However, these ongoing tariff disputes continued to overshadow the AUD’s ability to gain strength.
Fed Policy Uncertainty and Impact on the USD
On the US front, the US Dollar Index (DXY) retreated from its recent highs, trading around 104.50 as market participants digested the latest economic data.
US Treasury yields, which had been providing support to the USD, showed signs of easing, with the 2-year and 10-year yields hovering at 4.0% and 4.34%, respectively. These declines were compounded by the growing uncertainty surrounding US Federal Reserve policy.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari both spoke about the challenges the Fed faces in managing inflation.
Kashkari highlighted that there is still more to be done. The uncertainty about the Fed's future decisions, combined with market concerns about an economic slowdown due to trade tensions, put pressure on the US Dollar. As a result, the Australian Dollar (AUD) gained some strength.
Chinese Stimulus and Australian Inflation Data Support AUD Amid Cautious Outlook
On the other hand, expectations of Chinese stimulus helped support the Australian Dollar (AUD), thanks to the strong trade ties between Australia and China.
The Chinese government's plans to boost consumption by raising wages and easing financial burdens are seen as positive for Australia's export-driven economy.
This stimulus could improve consumer confidence in China, which is a key trading partner for Australia, and help increase demand for Australian commodities.
At the same time, Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February showed a slight dip to 2.4%, which was below expectations but still reflected a stable inflation environment.
This muted inflation figure, coupled with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to maintain interest rates steady, added to the cautious outlook for the Australian Dollar.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar is inching higher against the U.S. dollar, currently trading at $0.63157, as the pair holds above its key pivot point at $0.62948.
This level also aligns closely with the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.62945, reinforcing short-term technical support and signaling a modestly bullish tone.
Immediate resistance is seen at $0.63304. A sustained break above this threshold could set the stage for a rally toward $0.63587, followed by a key ceiling at $0.63907—levels that have capped upside moves in previous sessions.
However, buyers will need continued momentum to push through these levels, especially with broader risk sentiment in flux.
On the downside, immediate support sits at $0.62580. A drop below this could open a path to $0.62306 and $0.62060, where buying interest may re-emerge.
These levels should be watched closely in the event of a sentiment shift or stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data later this week.
Technically, the structure favors a long bias above $0.62947, with a short-term target of $0.63426 and a stop loss set at $0.62692 to manage risk.
The pair continues to consolidate within a modest upward channel, supported by the 50 EMA, suggesting underlying demand remains intact.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD holds above $0.62945 EMA and pivot, signaling short-term bullish bias.
- Key resistance levels lie at $0.63304, $0.63587, and $0.63907.
- Support at $0.62580 and below may limit downside in case of reversal.
The Australian dollar is inching higher against the U.S. dollar, currently trading at $0.63157, as the pair holds above its key pivot point at $0.62948.
This level also aligns closely with the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.62945, reinforcing short-term technical support and signaling a modestly bullish tone.
Immediate resistance is seen at $0.63304. A sustained break above this threshold could set the stage for a rally toward $0.63587, followed by a key ceiling at $0.63907—levels that have capped upside moves in previous sessions.
However, buyers will need continued momentum to push through these levels, especially with broader risk sentiment in flux.
On the downside, immediate support sits at $0.62580. A drop below this could open a path to $0.62306 and $0.62060, where buying interest may re-emerge.
These levels should be watched closely in the event of a sentiment shift or stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data later this week.
Technically, the structure favors a long bias above $0.62947, with a short-term target of $0.63426 and a stop loss set at $0.62692 to manage risk.
The pair continues to consolidate within a modest upward channel, supported by the 50 EMA, suggesting underlying demand remains intact.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.62947
Take Profit – 0.63426
Stop Loss – 0.62692
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$479/ -$255
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$47/ -$25
AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 25, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair remained steady, trading around 0.6319, with an intra-day high of 0.6323.
Despite some underlying challenges, the Australian Dollar (AUD) has been supported by expectations of a cautious approach from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), along with the anticipation of continued Chinese stimulus to boost the Australian economy.
However, the pair faces some challenges from growing concerns over the Australian government's budget deficit and the potential impact of US trade policies.
Australia's Budget Deficit and Economic Outlook
The Australian economy faces a rising budget deficit, with the Treasury projecting a deficit of A$27.6 billion for 2024-25, widening to A$42.1 billion in 2025-26. Despite this, Australia's GDP growth is expected to stabilize at 2.25% in fiscal 2026 and 2.5% in fiscal 2027.
The Australian Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, also announced new tax cuts totaling approximately A$17.1 billion, aimed at garnering political support ahead of upcoming elections.
While these measures could support domestic consumption, the growing budget deficit raises concerns about fiscal sustainability and may limit the Australian government's ability to respond to future economic challenges.
Investors are also looking ahead to the RBA's decisions, with many speculating that the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged in April after its first rate cut in four years in February.
Moreover, the Australian economy continues to benefit from its strong trade ties with China, particularly as Chinese policymakers implement measures to stimulate domestic consumption and revitalize their economy.
US Dollar Strengthened by Services PMI Surge
On the US front, the US dollar strengthened amid a surge in the Services PMI, which climbed to 54.3 in March from 51.0 in February, signaling a robust rebound in business activity. The increase in the Services PMI marked a three-month high, further indicating economic resilience despite mixed signals from other sectors.
Meanwhile, the S&P Global US Composite PMI also rose to 53.5, up from February's 51.6, highlighting continued expansion in the economy. However, the US manufacturing sector experienced a slowdown, with the Manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.8, falling short of market expectations.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has remained stable around 104.30, buoyed by these positive services sector data. While inflation remains a concern for the Federal Reserve, the hawkish stance of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who noted that inflation is moving closer to the 2% target, has provided support for the USD.
Therefore, the stronger US dollar, driven by robust services sector data and Fed's hawkish stance, likely puts downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair, as the USD outperforms the AUD.
Geopolitical Risks and US Trade Policies Impact on AUD/USD
Despite positive data from both the US and Australia, the AUD/USD pair faces risks due to uncertainty around US trade policies. US President Trump's upcoming tariff announcement in early April could affect global trade and economic growth. Although Trump suggested some countries might be exempt from the tariffs, the full details of the plan are still unclear, leaving traders cautious.
Additionally, there are concerns that the US economy could slow down due to trade tensions and the impact of tariffs on key industries like agriculture and coal. These factors could add volatility to the AUD/USD pair, as traders weigh the strong US Dollar against the potential risks to Australia's economy.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is treading water around $0.62861 in Tuesday’s early European session, showing little change on the day.
Despite the neutral tone, price action is gradually aligning with a short-term bullish bias, underpinned by support above the pivot point at $0.62679.
The 4-hour chart reveals consolidation just beneath the 50-period EMA at $0.63170—a level that’s currently acting as a dynamic resistance ceiling.
A decisive move above $0.63172, the immediate resistance level, would confirm bullish control and could open the door toward the next upside targets at $0.63510 and $0.63907.
These levels coincide with recent supply zones, where sellers have historically emerged. Sustained momentum above the 50-EMA could also suggest that buyers are preparing for a broader recovery leg.
On the downside, immediate support is located at $0.62342, followed by $0.61966 and the deeper floor at $0.61599.
A break below $0.62679 would negate the bullish setup and increase the risk of a slide toward those lower supports.
The broader context remains mixed, with AUD/USD reacting to shifting U.S. rate expectations, commodity sentiment, and Asia-Pacific macro data.
For now, the technicals suggest cautious optimism, but confirmation above $0.63172 is needed before bulls can fully commit to higher targets.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD trades just above pivot point at $0.62679, suggesting near-term support.
- A breakout above $0.63172 may trigger upside toward $0.63510 and $0.63907.
- Breakdown below $0.62679 could shift momentum toward $0.62342 and $0.61966.
The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is treading water around $0.62861 in Tuesday’s early European session, showing little change on the day.
Despite the neutral tone, price action is gradually aligning with a short-term bullish bias, underpinned by support above the pivot point at $0.62679.
The 4-hour chart reveals consolidation just beneath the 50-period EMA at $0.63170—a level that’s currently acting as a dynamic resistance ceiling.
A decisive move above $0.63172, the immediate resistance level, would confirm bullish control and could open the door toward the next upside targets at $0.63510 and $0.63907.
These levels coincide with recent supply zones, where sellers have historically emerged. Sustained momentum above the 50-EMA could also suggest that buyers are preparing for a broader recovery leg.
On the downside, immediate support is located at $0.62342, followed by $0.61966 and the deeper floor at $0.61599.
A break below $0.62679 would negate the bullish setup and increase the risk of a slide toward those lower supports.
The broader context remains mixed, with AUD/USD reacting to shifting U.S. rate expectations, commodity sentiment, and Asia-Pacific macro data.
For now, the technicals suggest cautious optimism, but confirmation above $0.63172 is needed before bulls can fully commit to higher targets.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.62679
Take Profit – 0.63181
Stop Loss – 0.62424
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$502/ -$255
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$50/ -$25
AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD remains bearish below $0.6332, with downside targets at $0.6298 and $0.6277.
- The 50-day EMA at $0.6347 is acting as a strong resistance level.
- A break above $0.6363 could signal a potential reversal, targeting $0.6390.
The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) is trading at $0.6317, up 0.03%, as it attempts to recover from recent declines. However, the pair remains below the key pivot level of $0.6332, suggesting that bearish pressure persists.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.6347 is acting as a dynamic resistance level, keeping the pair in a downward trajectory.
If AUD/USD fails to break above this level, it could face renewed selling pressure, with immediate support at $0.6298. A break below this level could open the door for further losses toward $0.6277 and $0.6258.
On the upside, resistance at $0.6363 remains a key hurdle for bulls. If AUD/USD manages to break above this level, further gains toward $0.6390 and $0.6415 could follow. However, with the broader trend favoring the U.S. dollar due to Federal Reserve policy expectations, any upside moves may be short-lived.
A break below $0.6332 is likely to reinforce a bearish trend, with a downside target at $0.6298. Traders should watch for a break above $0.6363 to confirm a potential shift in momentum.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.63320
Take Profit – 0.62979
Stop Loss – 0.63594
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.24
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$341/ -$274
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$34/ -$27
AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 20, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair experienced strong bearish pressure, trading near the 0.6285 level as the Australian Dollar weakened against the US Dollar. This decline was largely attributed to disappointing domestic employment data and the continued strength of the US Dollar.
Australia's February Employment Report Shows Sharp Job Losses, Weighing on AUD
On the data front, the Australia's employment report for February revealed a sharp drop in jobs, with the Employment Change showing a loss of 52.8K jobs, compared to the expected 30.0K increase.
This was a stark contrast to the 30.5K rise reported in January (revised from 44K), highlighting a concerning slowdown in the labor market.
The Australian Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.1%, in line with market expectations, but the weaker-than-expected job growth weighed heavily on market sentiment, driving the AUD lower.
US Dollar Strengthened by Hawkish Fed Remarks and Geopolitical Tensions Weighing on AUD/USD
Meanwhile, the US dollar found strength from hawkish remarks made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who emphasized that the labor market remains strong and inflation is moving closer to the Fed's target, though it remains elevated. This reaffirmed expectations of further tightening, which helped maintain the USD's bullish momentum.
On the geopolitical front, global trade tensions also contributed to the market's cautious tone. Former US President Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff threats, including reciprocal tariffs and plans to impose fees on Chinese-linked vessels, have raised concerns over potential disruptions to global trade.
Moreover, Trump's ongoing trade disputes with China are creating further uncertainty in the markets, weighing on the Aussie Dollar.
In addition, the temporary agreement between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to pause strikes targeting energy infrastructure in Ukraine failed to quell broader concerns over the conflict, further adding to the risk-averse sentiment in the markets. These geopolitical factors further pressured the AUD/USD pair, limiting any potential upside.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) is trading at $0.6317, up 0.03%, as it attempts to recover from recent declines. However, the pair remains below the key pivot level of $0.6332, suggesting that bearish pressure persists.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.6347 is acting as a dynamic resistance level, keeping the pair in a downward trajectory.
If AUD/USD fails to break above this level, it could face renewed selling pressure, with immediate support at $0.6298. A break below this level could open the door for further losses toward $0.6277 and $0.6258.
On the upside, resistance at $0.6363 remains a key hurdle for bulls. If AUD/USD manages to break above this level, further gains toward $0.6390 and $0.6415 could follow. However, with the broader trend favoring the U.S. dollar due to Federal Reserve policy expectations, any upside moves may be short-lived.
A break below $0.6332 is likely to reinforce a bearish trend, with a downside target at $0.6298. Traders should watch for a break above $0.6363 to confirm a potential shift in momentum.
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