ECB President Lagarde Speaks!

The EUR/USD closed at $1.1848 after placing a high of $1.1885 and a low of $1.1837. EUR/USD currency pair extended its losses and continued its bearish streak for the 4th consecutive session amid the strength in the U.S. dollar. The riskier asset EUR/USD dropped to its lowest level since April 06 as market sentiment turned to risk-off behavior. The U.S. dollar was onboard solid during Thursday’s trading session amid the rising fears of Delta coronavirus and ahead of the release of U.S. NFP data. The U.S. dollar index reached its highest level in 12 weeks at 92.60 and weighed heavily on EUR/USD.

On the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German Retail Sales in May declined to 4.2% against the expectations of 4.5% and weighed on the single currency Euro. At 12:15 GMT, the Spanish Manufacturing PMI rose to 60.4 against the expected 59.6 and supported Euro. At 12:45 GMT, the Italian Manufacturing PMI remained flat with the expectations of 62.2. At 12:50 GMT, the French Final Manufacturing PMI rose to 59.0 against the projected 58.6 and supported Euro. At 12:55 GMT, the German Final Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged with a projection of 64.9. At 13:00 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI from the whole bloc also remained flat with the forecasts of 63.4. The Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate dropped to 10.5% against the forecasted 10.7% and supported the single currency Euro. At 14:00 GMT, the Unemployment Rate from the whole bloc also declined to 7.9% against the projected 8.0% and supported Euro.

From the U.S. side, at 16:30 GMT, the Challenger Job Cuts for the year declined to -88.0% compared to the previous -993.8%. At 17:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week reduced to 364K against the estimated 388K and supported the U.S. dollar that added further loss in EUR/USD. At 18:45 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI dropped to 62.1 against the predicted 62.6 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further loss in EUR/USD. At 19:00 GMT, the ISM Manufacturing PMI also declined to 60.6 against the predicted 61.0 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further loss in EUR/USD. Construction Spending dropped to -0.3% against the anticipated 0.4% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that limited the declining prices of EUR/USD. The ISM Manufacturing Prices surged to 92.1 against the estimated 86.0 and supported the U.S. dollar that added further loss in EUR/USD.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that the euro-zone economy might avoid the most pessimistic scenario predicted at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it still faces risks from variants mutations. ECB has started debating whether to cut back on its massive bond-buying program as the economy was recovering from its coronavirus-induced slump. Lagarde said that the improved economic outlook on rapid progress in vaccination campaigns had reduced the probability of severe scenarios. However, the emerging recovery still faces uncertainty due to the spread of virus mutations.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1829 1.1877

1.1809 1.1905

1.1781 1.1925

Pivot Point: 1.1857

EUR/USD - Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias at the 1.1838 level as the major currency pair has violated the support level of 1.1850. On the downside, the breakout of 1.1845 exposes the direct currency pair towards the next support area of 1.1803 level. It’s going to be a big day for direct currency pairs like EUR/USD as the U.S. economy is due to release its unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data. These two figures are the most-awaited and high-impact economic events as these typically drive massive price action in the market. Let’s keep an eye on an immediate support level of 1.1830 level as above this, the bullish bias remains dominant, and below this, the bearish bias remains dominant. All the best!

Symmetrical Triangle Pattern

The BTC/USD was closed at $33554.4 after placing a high of $35043.5 and a low of $32821.0. Bitcoin extended its loss and dropped for a second consecutive session on Thursday despite improving market sentiment. After China's crackdown on the whole crypto market, Kazakhstan has become increasingly popular for cryptocurrency mining. The country's president has signed a new law that will introduce an extra tax for crypto miners.

Kassym Jomart Tokayev, the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, recently signed a new law that imposes an additional tax fee on energy utilized by crypto miners operating in the country. The new fees will take impact from the inception of the new year in January 2022. On the other hand, Mike Novogratz, the billionaire CEO of Galaxy Digital, believed that Ethereum could become the world's largest cryptocurrency. He stated that there was no doubt that bitcoin has come to stay, and so, the community still needs to work hard to educate financial regulators on the working of the flagship crypto.

As bitcoin has been adopted as the official legal currency in El Salvador, many other sovereign states have shown willingness to go on with the same move. However, Novogratz believed that the biggest threat to bitcoin's mainstream adoption journey was the lack of agreeable crypto regulations. Novogratz also said that the latest crackdown on bitcoin mining from China was a positive development for the global crypto space. China has been involved in a conflict against bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies since 2017; it has banned crypto mining operations this year and forced Chinese miners to move abroad to do such activities.

Similarly, the report also revealed that the members have said that 67.6% of the total energy used to mine bitcoin came from sustainable sources, which ensured a much lower environmental influence than that of the industry in other countries, especially China. The miners in China mainly concentrated on the Bitcoin hash rate, and a large portion of the energy used to mine bitcoin was generated by coal-fired plants there.

Furthermore, a report on CNBC enlisted the five biggest risks faced by Bitcoin, including regulations, high volatility, environmental concerns, stable coin scrutiny, and meme coins and scam. According to the article, the biggest issue faced by bitcoin was regulations, as China has clamped down on its cryptocurrency industry, and UK regulators also banned leading digital currency exchange Binance from undertaking regulated activities. The United States has also not figured out how to properly regulate the industry.

On the other hand, the extreme swings in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have also been holding the leading currency to reach its peak as investors fear the high volatility attached to it. Thirdly, bitcoin mining equipment requires much electricity to run, and energy consumption has risen considerably over the years. High energy consumption has a significant impact on the environment, which is also holding bitcoin back. Similarly, stable coin scrutiny and popularity of meme coins and the rising number of scams in the crypto industry have also been a challenge to bitcoin lately.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

32569.1 34791.6

31583.8 36028.8

30346.5 37014.1

Pivot point: 33806.3

BTC/USD - Technical Outlook

The BTC/USD pair is trading with a slight bearish at 32,796, gaining support at 32,445. The support level is extended by an upward trendline on the 4- hour timeframe. The Bitcoin has crossed below 50 periods EMA extending resistance at 33,650 and demonstrating selling bias. The bearish crossover of the 32,445 support level can expose Bitcoin price towards the next support area, 30,565 and 29.244 support areas. At the same time, the breakout of 33,650 resistance can expose BTC toward 35,555 and 36,665 areas. All the best!

Eyes on ISM Manufacturing PMI!

Gold was closed at $1708.75 after placing a high of $1774.65 and a low of $1753.20. Gold experienced its worst monthly loss in almost 5-years over the speculations of stimulus tapering and interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. However, neither of the two options was close to happening anytime soon. Gold has been under pressure since January that began last year when in August gold reached its record highs above $2000 and rushed for a few months before entering into a series of bearish candles from November when the first breakthrough in coronavirus vaccine efficiency was announced.

Gold attempted to break the downward pressure and rose in May back to $1905; however, a new round of short-selling prompted and took gold back to $1800 levels. This week the prices went further down amid the talks of tightening by the Federal Reserve, and gold reached its 2-months lowest level around $1750. This month, Fed has indicated that it expects two interest rate hikes before 2023, pushing the rates to 0.6% from the current level near zero at 0.25%. For tapering the $120 billion asset purchases, the Fed has not yet provided any timetable. Still, it has shown that it will be looking at macroeconomic data closely to determine the perfect timing for a complete freeze of asset & bond purchases. Meanwhile, bankers and FOMC members, and other officials also started talking about interest rate hikes and tapering that dragged gold prices further on the downside.

On the data front, at 17:15 GMT, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for June increased to 692K against the predicted 555K and supported the U.S. dollar and further capped gains in gold. At 18:45 GMT, the Chicago PMI for June declined to 66.1 against the anticipated 70.2 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added further gains in gold. At 19:00 GMT, the Pending Home Sales rose to 8.0% against the estimated -1.1% and supported on the U.S. dollar and limited the rising prices of gold. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that measures the greenback value against the basket of six major currencies, surged for the third consecutive session on Wednesday and reached 92.45 level. The U.S. dollar was strong on the day as the most awaited job report from the Labour Department suggested a rising number of jobs created in June. However, despite the strength in the U.S. dollar, the yellow metal remained green for the day amid the risk-off market sentiment.

The highly contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus has prompted renewed concerns of a new wave of coronavirus. Following these concerns, many countries have recently recommended mask-wearing even for vaccinated people. Log Angeles, America’s most populous county, has asked its people to protect unvaccinated people from the most transmissible delta variant spreading fast in the region. To do so, the officials have recommended wearing masks just two weeks after the state relaxed the COVID-restrictions. These concerns prompted the safe-haven demand in the market that pushed yellow metal prices.

Gold Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance

1756.41 1777.86

1744.08 1786.98

1734.96 1799.31

Pivot Point: 1765.53

Gold - XAU/USD - Technical Outlook

On Thursday, the precious metal gold continues trading with a slight bullish bais at 1,776 exhibiting a strong price action. The metal has already violated the resistance level of 1,765. Now it’s trading at 1,761 level, having bounced off over the support level of 1,756 level. Continuation of a buying trend can expose gold price towards the next resistance level of 1,782 and 1,796. The MACD is closing histograms below 0 points, supporting the selling trend, while the 50 periods moving average is also holding around 1,776 level. Gold’s next support stays at 1,765 and 1,752 levels. Good luck!

German Final Manufacturing PMI Ahead!

The EUR/USD was closed at $1.1855 after placing a high of $1.1910 and a low of $1.1845. EUR/USD currency pair continued its bearish streak for the 6th consecutive session on Wednesday amid the rebounded strength in the U.S. dollar, and the prompted risk-off market sentiment.

The U.S. dollar was strong across the board on Wednesday as the DXY reached above 92.4 level and helped the greenback gain traction against its rival single currency Euro. The reason behind the strength in the greenback could be better-than-expected jobs report from the U.S. Labour Department on Wednesday that showed a higher than expected job creation in June.

On the data front, at 11:45 GMT, the French Consumer Spending for May surged to 10.4% against the forecasted 7.4% and supported the single currency Euro and further caped loss in EUR/USD pair. The French Prelim CPI for June remained flat with projections of 0.2%. At 12:55 GMT, the German Unemployment Change dropped to -38K against the forecasted -20K and supported the single currency Euro with limited EUR/USD pair losses. At 14:00 GMT, the CPI Flash Estimate for the year also remained flat, with projections of 1.9%. The Core CPI Flash Estimate for the year also remained unchanged from the expected 0.9%. Italian Prelim CPI dropped to 0.1% against the forecasted 0.2% and weighed on the single currency Euro that added further loss in EUR/USD.

From the U.S. side, at 17:15 GMT, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for June rose to 692K against the forecasted 555K and supported the U.S. dollar that added extra loss in EUR/USD. At 18:45 GMT, the Chicago PMI for June dropped to 66.1 against the forecasted 70.2 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and limited the downward momentum in EUR/USD. At 19:00 GMT, the Pending Home Sales surged to 8.0% against the expected -1.1% and supported the U.S. dollar that dragged EUR/USD pair further on the downside.

The U.S. dollar gained traction even after declining U.S. treasury yields and a rebound in Wall Street stock indices. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note dropped to its lowest since June 21 at 1.45% whereas, the Dow Jones rose by 0.45%. However, the U.S. Dollar Index rose and reached 92.45 level and continued its bullish streak for 4th consecutive session. The strength in the greenback added pressure on the currency pair EUR/USD and increased its losses for the day.

Furthermore, the rising number of cases around the globe due to the highly transmissible Delta variant of the coronavirus raised fears in the market as countries have re-imposed restrictions to stop the spread. The economic recovery concerns prompted the safe-haven appeal that added further strength to the already rising prices of the safe-haven greenback. Hence, the riskier currency pair EUR/USD faced pressure.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1830 1.1895

1.1805 1.1935

1.1765 1.1961

Pivot Point 1.1870

EUR/USD - Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias at the 1.1845 level as the major currency pair has violated the support level of 1.1875. The direct currency pair may face resistance at the 1.1916 level that's being extended 50 periods EMA. The EUR/USD is closing a bearish engulfing candle on the 4-hour timeframe that typically demonstrates strong bearish sentiment among investors. The 50 periods EMA will be there to extend resistance at the 1.1918 mark. Conversely, the 1.1848 support level breakout can expose the EUR/USD pair towards 1.1811 and 1.1774 levels today. All the best!

Three Black Cross Weights on Bitcoin Price

The BTC/USD was closed at $35043.5 after placing a high of $35981.0 and a low of $34754.0. Bitcoin came under pressure on Wednesday and lost almost half of its previous daily loss amid the strength in the greenback along with the adverse developments around the corner. Aswath Damodaran, a Professor of Finance at New York University Stern School of Business, has criticized bitcoin and stated that the flagship cryptocurrency had failed miserably to function as a currency. Professor, popularly known as the "Dean of Valuation," asked people why they do not use bitcoin as a mean of payment or use it in transactions. He added that business enthusiasts place this notion that bitcoin was a great currency because they have gained a bunch of money from it; however, it was not a measure of good currency. Damodaran said that a good currency was the one that used to buy coffee, house, and car, and on this count, bitcoin has failed miserably.

Whereas, on Wednesday, a report published by Forbes noted that the New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG) has partnered with an enterprise payment staple based in Atlanta named NCR to make it easier for banks in the United States to offer Bitcoin trading services. The financial institutions in the United and across the globe have begun to deal in cryptocurrencies despite the longstanding anti-crypto sentiments.

After this deal, the 650 financial institutions will offer buying, selling, and trading bitcoin to more than 24 million account holders. The collaboration details suggested that the trading of bitcoin offered by the NCR's banking and credit union clients will be provided with custody from NYDIG. In simple words, the community banks and credit banks from all parts of the USA will provide crypto trading via mobile apps for their clients.

Meanwhile, the recent filing from SEC suggested that Morgan Stanley has purchased about 28,289 shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust for its Europe Opportunity Fund. The mutual fund holds various Europe-based companies and invests at least 80% of its assets in equity securities by European companies. The fund has about $291.61 million assets under management. Morgan Stanley has increased its interest in crypto and has become more active lately due to increased demand from clients.

Recently, the investment bank approved for several funds to begin seeking indirect exposure to bitcoin. One of these funds was the Europe Opportunity Fund, among four other funds named Institutional Fund, Institutional Fund Trust, Insight Fund, and Variable Insurance Fund. According to the filing, each fund might invest up to 25% of its total assets in bitcoin.

Despite various positive developments surrounding the bitcoin space, the strength of the U.S. dollar for the day added a loss in BTC/USD. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that measures the value of the U.S. dollar against the basket of six major currencies, rose for the 4th consecutive session on Wednesday and reached 92.45. The dollar's rising value was driven by better-than-expected U.S. jobs reports and the risk-off market sentiment caused by the increasing fears of the Delta variant of the coronavirus. The strength in the greenback dragged the BTC/USD downwards on Wednesday because they both share a negative correlation.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

34538.0 35765.0

34032.5 36486.5

33311.0 36992.0

Pivot Point: 35259.5

BTC/USD - Technical Outlook

The BTC/USD pair is trading with a bearish bias at 33,358 level, dropping after testing the strong resistance area of 36,665. The technical side of BTC/USD hasn't changed a lot as it's dropping after completing 23.6% Fibonacci retracement on the daily timeframe. Closing of bearish engulfing and three black crows pattern below 36,665 area is weighting on Bitcoin prices. The 50 periods EMA extends resistance at 33,550 level while the MACD is now holding above 0 levels, demonstrating slight bullish bias among investors. On the higher side, the breakout of 36,665 level can expose Bitcoin price towards 37,650 and 40,930 (38.2% Fibonacci Retracement) level. All the best!

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change In Focus!

Gold prices were closed at $1761.65 after placing a high of $1778.95 and a low of $1750.20. Gold extended its loss on Tuesday and dropped to its lowest level since April 15 amid the strength in the U.S. dollar. The greenback was strong across the board ahead of the release of this week’s U.S. jobs report, which is expected to come in positive and could support the recent hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve. The anticipations of better-than-expected jobs data added to the strength of the U.S. dollar.

In its June policy meeting, the Federal Reserve signalled that it would likely opt for two hikes in interest rates before the end of 2023. The rates are expected to be increased to 0.6% from the current level of 0.25%. This will be the first interest rate hike since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020. Another significant change that Fed mentioned in its June policy meeting was the potential pull back on the $120 billion of monthly asset purchases by the central bank to support the economy. Although Fed officials had mixed signals about the tapering of asset purchases, the fact alone that it was being discussed in the policy meeting was enough to support the greenback prices, which ultimately weighed on the yellow metal.

On the data front, at 18:00 GMT, the Housing Price Index for April rose to 1.8% against the projected 1.5% and supported the U.S. dollar that added further loss in gold prices. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI for the year remained flat with expectations of 14.9%.

Meanwhile, the investors were awaiting the U.S. Labour Department’s Non-Farm Payrolls data scheduled for Friday. The data is expected to show a hike of 690,000 jobs this month compared to the previous 559,000. The data will follow the comments from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, who believes that the central bank had made substantial further progress in its inflation goal to start tapering asset purchases.

According to officials, the United States has lost more than 21 million jobs at the peak of business lockdowns induced to curb the effects of the coronavirus between March and April 2020. Although a significant part of job loss has been recovered, about 8 million are left to recover.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar was also strong across the board because of the safe-haven buying prompted by the fears of the new outbreak of the highly contagious Delta variant as it could disrupt the ongoing economic recovery. As in result, the global equity edged lower on Tuesday and helped the U.S. dollar gather strength that ultimately weighed on the yellow metal.

Gold Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance

1748.25 1777.0

1734.85 1792.35

1719.50 1805.75

Pivot Point: 1763.60

Gold - XAU/USD - Technical Outlook

The precious metal gold has finally exhibited a strong price action, disrupting the support level of 1,765. Now it’s trading at 1,761 level, having bounced off over the support level of 1,751 level. Continuation of a selling trend can expose gold price towards the next support level of 1,748. The MACD is closing histograms below 0 points, supporting the selling trend, while the 50 periods moving average is also holding below 1,761 level. Gold\s next support stays at 1,749 and 1,734 levels. On Wednesday, the investor’s focus will remain on the U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change as this has the potential to drive sharp price action in the market. Good luck!

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

The EUR/USD was closed at $1.1901 after placing a high of $1.1930 and a low of $1.1878. EUR/USD pair continued its bearish stance and dropped for 4th consecutive session on Tuesday amid the strength in the U.S. dollar. The single currency Euro weakened against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as the range of economic data came in negative on the day.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar was supported by the risk-off mood sentiment of the market due to its demand as a haven currency. The risk-off market sentiment emerged after the latest Delta variant of the coronavirus pushed another wave of coronavirus, specifically in the Asia-Pacific region of the world. Countries across the region started imposing fresh lockdown restrictions as coronavirus cases were on the surge continuously. The fears that economic recovery could disrupt because of the new lockdowns raised the demand for safe-haven that added strength to the U.S. dollar and added extra weight on riskier assets like EUR/USD pair.

On the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German Prelim CPI remained flat with the expectations of 0.4%. At 12:00 GMT, the Spanish Flash CPI for the year dropped to 2.6% against the expectations of 2.7% and weighed on single currency Euro that added loss in EUR/USD pair. From the U.S. front, at 18:00 GMT, the Housing Price Index for April surged to 1.8% against the predicted 1.5% and supported the U.S. dollar that added further loss in EUR/USD. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI for the year remained flat with projections of 14.9%. Meanwhile, the single currency Euro was under pressure despite the reopening of the economy that has boosted the Eurozone economy in the second quarter of this year. The rising consumption and investments after reopening translate to a better picture of the economy; however, the disruption in the supply side seems to be holding back the strong recovery. As a result, Euro remains on the back foot against the U.S. dollar and keeps EUR/USD pair lower.

Conversely, the U.S. dollar strengthened due to the more hawkish tone by the Federal Reserve in its latest policy meeting this month. Two weeks ago, the central bank of the United States signalled to increase interest rates for the first time after the pandemic by the end of 2023 to 0.65 from the current 0.25%. Additionally, the Fed said that it would keep a close eye on economic data to decide the time of starting decreasing its monthly asset purchases of $120 billion. These comments from Fed added strength to the U.S. dollar. It was further accelerated on Tuesday as investors were now awaiting the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Employment figures from the Labour Department that could lay down support for the hawkish tone portrayed by the Fed. The U.S. Dollar Index reached above 92 levels on Tuesday and dragged EUR/USD pair downwards.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1876 1.1928

1.1851 1.1955

1.1824 1.1980

Pivot Point: 1.1903

EUR/USD - Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD is trading choppy but with a slight bearish bias at the 1.1894 level. The direct currency pair may face resistance at the 1.1916 level that's being extended by a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. On the higher side, a breakout of 1.1916 level extends pair towards next resistance at 1.1960 level (the 38.2% Fibonacci level). However, the 50 periods EMA will be there to extend resistance at the 1.1958 mark. Conversely, the 1.1879 support level breakout can expose the EUR/USD pair towards 1.1848 and 1.1824 levels today. Let's keep an eye on ADP Non-Farm Employment Change as this may drive further trends in the EUR/USD pair today. All the best!

Bitcoin Complete 23.6% Fibonacci Correction

The BTC/USD was closed at $35,895.9 after placing a high of $36,411.0 and a low of $34,316.7. Bitcoin rose on Tuesday and peaked since June 18 despite the strong comeback in the U.S. dollar. On Tuesday, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis suggested Americans consider cryptocurrency as a way to diversify their retirement and long-term savings as she was also doing the same. She revealed that she was holding about five BTC and the first bitcoin she ever purchased was about $330. Lummis encouraged people to buy and hold bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as savings for their future.

Cynthia Lummis suggested people save their retirement money in bitcoin as it was one of the strongest stores of value for the long run. She said that having retirement money denominated in the U.S. dollar is something to worry about as asset allocation should be diversified. Furthermore, Robert Kiyosaki, the highly successful author of the “Rich Dad Poor Dad” series of personal finance books, has recommended buying bitcoin, gold, and silver ahead of what he believes to be going the biggest crash in world history.

In a tweet, Kiyosaki said that the next market crash would be a long one, but he also noted that the best time to get rich was during a crash. He suggested his followers get more hold of gold, bitcoin, and silver if they can to stay ahead of the financial downturn. Kiyosaki has been forecasting a market crash for a while now. In December 2020, he revealed that he was glad that he bought BTC at $19,000 as he accurately predicted that a wall of institutional money was coming in 2021, and then BTC reached $55,000. After few months, bitcoin hit a new all-time high at $64,000 before crashing down to $30,000, and it has been subsequently recovering.

On the other hand, Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management was confident that it might get approval from the SEC and joined the list of growing companies seeking to launch a bitcoin exchange-traded fund. The SEC revealed that Ark Invest has teamed up with European exchange-traded product issuer 21 Shares to apply for a Bitcoin product.

Moreover, the U.S. Dollar Index that measures the greenback value against the basket of six major currencies rose on Tuesday and reached above 92 handles, that added strength to the U.S. dollar. The rising prices of the greenback could be attributed to the fresh risk-off market sentiment driven by the fears of a new wave of the coronavirus pandemic that was accelerated by the highly contagious Delta variant of the virus.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar was also strong because of the latest hawkish tone portrayed by the Federal Reserve in its policy meeting. The strength in the U.S. dollar on Tuesday kept a cap on the gains of BTC/USD.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

34671.4 36765.7

33446.9 37635.5

32577.1 38860.1

Pivot Point: 35541.2

BTC/USD - Technical Outlook

The BTC/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias at 34,958 level, dropping after testing the strong resistance area of 36,665. The BTC/USD has completed 23.6% Fibonacci retracement daily, and the closing of candles below this level supports selling bias in Bitcoin. The 50 periods EMA extends resistance at 37,648 level while the MACD is still holding below 0 levels, demonstrating bearish bias among investors. On the higher side, the breakout of 36,665 level can expose Bitcoin price towards 37,650 and 40,930 (38.2% Fibonacci Retracement) level. All the best!

50 EMA Supports Japanese Yen

The USD/JPY was closed at $110.77 after placing a high of $110.99 and a low of $110.48. USD/JPY extended its loss on Friday but remained positive for the third consecutive week. After spending half of the day in a relatively tight range below $110, the USD/JPY currency pair lost its traction and fell to its fresh daily low at 110.48. The recent pressure was driven by the weak U.S. dollar and the rising risk-off market sentiment that dragged the USD/JPY pair on Friday.

On the data front, at 17:30 GMT, the Core PCE Price Index fell to 0.5% against the predicted 0.6% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further loss in the USD/JPY pair. In May, the Personal Income declined to -2.0% against the estimated -2.5% and supported the U.S. dollar that limited the decline in the USD/JPY pair. However, Personal Spending fell to 0.0% against the projected 0.4% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that dragged the USD/JPY lower. At 19:00 GMT, the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment dropped to 85.5 against the projected 86.5 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that further caped loss in USD/JPY. The Revised UoM Inflation Expectations remained flat at 4.2%.

From the Japanese side, at 04:30 GMT, the Tokyo Core CPI for the year rose to 0.0% against the forecasted -0.1% and pushed JPY higher that also supported the declining prices of USD/JPY on Friday. The two primary data figures under close observation by the investors, including the Core PCE Price Index for determining the inflation position of the country and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, came in against the U.S. dollar and made it weak against its rival currencies. The U.S. Dollar Index also remained flat throughout the day at 91.85 level and added further weakness in the greenback that drove USD/JPY lower for the day.

Furthermore, the U.S. dollar was also weak because of the recent announcement from U.S. President Joe Biden that a bipartisan group of senators had reached a deal on an infrastructure plan for the nation worth $1.2 trillion. As the debts will fund this amount, it weighed heavily on the U.S. dollar and added further losses in the USD/JPY pair.

Apart from the weakness of the U.S. dollar, the rising risk-off market sentiment in the market also played an essential role in dragging the USD/JPY pair downwards. The increasing number of coronavirus cases and deaths in the Asia-Pacific region of the world due to another wave of coronavirus prompted many countries to renew lockdown measures and restrictions. Indonesia saw more than 24,000 cases in a single day, while Moscow recorded 144 deaths in 24 hours. This added in the risk-off market sentiment and helped the Japanese Yen gather strength against the U.S. dollar, which ultimately added further loss in the USD/JPY pair.

EURUSD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

110.77 110.85

110.71 110.89

110.68 110.94

Pivot Point: 110.80

USD/JPY - Technical Outlook

The USD/JPY is trading at the 110.650 level, gaining support at the 50 periods moving average area of 110.480. On the 4 hour timeframe, the USD/JPY faces immediate resistance at the 111.053 level, where a bullish breakout of this level can lead its price towards the 111.450 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the USD/JPY has formed an upward channel, and the closing of candles inside this supports bullish bias among investors. The MACD and 50 moving periods are also supporting an upward trend in the USD/JPY pair. Let’s keep an eye on the 110.80 resistance level today, as a bullish breakout can expose the pair towards the next resistance level of 111.053 level. All the best!

Sideway Channel Continues to Play!

Gold prices were closed at $1777.80 after placing a high of $1791.00 and a low of $1773.60. Gold remained on a positive note during the trading session on Friday and posted its first weekly gain in four.

Since its sudden fall from the $1900 level, gold remained on a positive foot this week. However, the difference was very low compared to the steep fall in gold prices during previous weeks. The positive shift in gold was driven by the recent deal on U.S. infrastructure spending that made U.S. dollar weak. Meanwhile, the inflation data also added pressure on the U.S. dollar and helped gold prices to stage a rebound.

On Thursday, President Biden and a bipartisan group of centrist senators reached a deal on an infrastructure plan for the nation worth $1.2 trillion. This spending plan helped bullion gather strength against the U.S. dollar as it has to be financed to a substantial range with higher debts that could weigh on the greenback. The progress on the plan extended weight on the U.S. dollar, and hence, gold moved higher.

Meanwhile, the gains in gold remained limited as the bullion was under pressure from last week's U.S. Federal Reserve statement. The Fed maintained a surprisingly hawkish tone and said that it would raise its interest rates two times in 2023 and look out for the data to find ways to start tapering the asset purchases. On the data front, at 17:30 GMT, the Core PCE Price Index dropped to 0.5% against the expected 0.6% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in gold prices. In May, the Personal Income dropped to -2.0% against the forecasted -2.5% and supported the U.S. dollar that limited the rising price of gold. However, Personal Spending declined to 0.0% against the expected 0.4% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that pushed gold higher.

At 19:00 GMT, the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment fell to 85.5 against the predicted 86.5 and weighed on the U.S. dollar, adding further upside momentum in gold. The Revised UoM Inflation Expectations remained flat at 4.2%. The key U.S. inflation gauge monitored by the Federal Reserve dropped in May and weighed on the greenback along with the Personal Income and Consumer Sentiment. However, Personal Spending remained in favour of the U.S. dollar but failed to keep the greenback higher against the bullion on Friday.

As Fed's chairman Jerome Powell has said that rising prices will not be the only determinant of interest rates decisions by the Fed, the two Fed officials still warned on Friday that inflation could surge more than policymakers' forecasts in the near term. These mixed signals from Fed kept gold prices under pressure as gold is considered an inflation hedge, and it also benefits from a lower interest rate environment. The opportunity cost of holding bullion was often reduced in such circumstances and proved beneficial to gold.

Furthermore, the rise in gold prices during the week could also be attributed to the increase in coronavirus cases from different countries worldwide, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. A fresh wave of coronavirus started in the Asia-Pacific region and caused its countries to re-impose restrictions to control the spread of the virus.

According to World Health Organization, the Delta coronavirus variant has spread in more than 85 countries, and it is the most contagious of any variant of COVID-19 so far identified. The pandemic has killed about 4 million people worldwide; however, the vaccination has helped reduce the number of cases in many wealthy nations, while the Delta variant of COVID-19 remains a concern. Indonesia saw more than 21,000 cases in a single day, and Moscow recorded 144 COVID-19 deaths in a single day, which resulted in fresh lockdown measures in many countries belonging to the region. This helped gold prices remain on the green note as the safe-haven status of bullion emerged in the market with the rising number of coronavirus cases.

Gold Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance

1769.30 1784.80

1763.35 1794.35

1753.80 1800.30

Pivot Point: 1778.85

Gold - XAU/USD - Technical Outlook

Gold price continues to trade choppy at a 1,783 level, maintaining a narrow trading range of 1,796 – 1,765 levels. On Monday, the U.S. economy isn’t expected to release any high impact economic event, therefore, the odds of a breakout or a price action seems pretty low. Technically, the precious metal gold has completed 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,769 and this level continues to support gold price today. On the daily timeframe, the Fibonacci indicator offers resistance at 1,795 and 1,822, which are extended by 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. The leading indicator, such as MACD, is still holding below 0, supporting a selling bias in gold. Furthermore, the 50 periods EMA is extending resistance at 1,821 level, and below this, the selling pressure remains strong. All the best!