USD/JPY midweek: holding near 159.36 ahead of Tokyo CPI, 2026-05-25

Where USD/JPY stands midweek

USD/JPY closed Wednesday at 159.359, up 41 pips from Monday's open at 158.953. The pair traded between 158.754 and 159.376 across the three sessions, with Tuesday's push to 159.376 marking the week's high point.

What has driven price so far

BOJ Governor Ueda's Wednesday speech coincided with the session's narrow 20-pip range near 159.30. Dollar strength persisted across Asian pairs following the PBOC's stronger yuan fix Wednesday morning, supporting the move above 159.00.

What's still ahead

Tokyo Core CPI lands Thursday night at 23:30, with consensus expecting 1.5% year-on-year to match the prior reading. If inflation accelerates beyond 1.5%, yen strength could test 159.00. Thursday's US GDP release at 12:30 carries a 2.0% forecast versus 0.7% previously. If GDP prints above forecast while Tokyo CPI holds steady, the pair faces pressure toward Wednesday's high.

Positioning right now

Current sentiment shows 52.1% of positions short USD/JPY versus 47.9% long as of Wednesday morning. The slight skew toward shorts reflects traders positioning for yen strength ahead of Tokyo CPI, though the margin remains narrow enough for quick reversals.

The level that matters today

USD/JPY sits just below the week's 159.376 high, with 159.40 acting as immediate resistance. A break below Wednesday's 159.174 low would put Tuesday's 158.908 back in focus. The 160.00 round number looms above if both data releases favor dollar strength. Trade USD/JPY with LHFX's tight spreads and fast execution.

Byline: LHFX Research

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