EUR/USD week ahead: Eurozone CPI and US payrolls, 2026-06-01

How last week left EUR/USD

EUR/USD opened Monday at 1.16412 and closed Friday at 1.16590, gaining 178 pips or 1.5% across the five sessions. The pair found a floor near 1.1585 mid-week before recovering into the weekly close.

What this week is about

US non-farm payrolls on Friday at 12:30 GMT headline the week, with consensus expecting 95K jobs added versus 115K previously. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings are forecast to tick up to 0.3% month-on-month from 0.2%.

Before that, Eurozone CPI flash estimates land Tuesday at 09:00 GMT. Core CPI is expected at 2.4% year-on-year versus 2.2% prior, with headline CPI seen accelerating to 3.3% from 3.0%. Wednesday brings US ADP employment at 116K expected, then Thursday's US jobless claims at 211K forecast.

Scenarios for the week

If Eurozone inflation runs hotter than the 3.3% headline forecast on Tuesday, EUR/USD could test last week's 1.16855 high early. A move through there puts the 1.1700 psychological level on the radar. If US payrolls disappoint badly on Friday, falling below 50K, the pair could accelerate through recent resistance zones.

Conversely, if Eurozone CPI misses and comes in below 3.0%, the pair likely revisits 1.1650 support quickly. Should US payrolls then surprise above 150K, last week's 1.1585 low comes back into focus, with further downside possible from there.

Positioning into the new week

Retail positioning shows 51.6% of traders long EUR/USD versus 48.4% short as of Sunday evening. The near-balanced split suggests no overwhelming directional conviction, leaving room for either inflation data or payrolls to drive a breakout from the recent 1.1585 to 1.1685 range.

Levels to watch

Last week's high at 1.16855 is the immediate resistance, sitting just below the 1.1700 round number. On the downside, 1.1650 acted as support late last week and remains the first test for any pullback. Below that, the 1.1585 weekly low from Wednesday is the key support to monitor as the week unfolds.

Byline: LHFX Research

Risk disclaimer. CFD trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. Leverage works both ways and can amplify losses beyond your initial deposit. The analysis above is general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. LHFX is regulated by the FSC Mauritius and the FSCA in South Africa. Open an LHFX account to trade EUR/USD this week.