Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair maintained it upward trend and remained well bid around 151.50 level. However, the reason for its upward trend can be attributed to the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, particularly highlighted by comments made by Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Waller's remarks indicated a less dovish outlook on monetary policy, citing higher-than-expected inflation readings and the resilience of the US economy. This has led to increased expectations of a more aggressive stance on interest rates, which typically strengthens the US dollar and supports the USD/JPY pair.

Furthermore, the upcoming US macroeconomic data, including the final Q4 GDP print and the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, are being closely monitored by traders for any signs of economic strength or weakness.

BoJ’s Dovish Outlook and Its Impact on USD/JPY Currency Pair:

Conversely, the Bank of Japan's dovish outlook has exerted downward pressure on the Japanese yen and contributed to the strength of the USD/JPY currency pair. Japanese monetary officials have expressed a cautious approach to monetary policy, signaling their readiness to maintain accommodative financial conditions for an extended period.

Therefore, the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan contrasts with the hawkish sentiment of the Federal Reserve, widening the interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Japanese yen. Furthermore, Japanese authorities have hinted at potential interventions to address disorderly movements in the currency market, which may further weaken the Japanese yen relative to the US dollar.

Impact of Federal Reserve's Stance on AUD/USD Pair

On the US front, Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller's stance favoring higher interest rates boosted the US dollar and impacted the AUD/USD pair. Despite steady inflation, Waller signaled a reluctance to lower rates hastily. This cautious approach hinted that the Fed might delay easing monetary policy, supporting the US dollar and causing the AUD/USD pair to fall.

Additionally, other Fed members like Bostic and Cook warned that cutting rates too soon could worsen inflation, while Goolsbee from the Chicago Fed leaned towards rate cuts but wanted proof of improving inflation first.

Therefore, the AUD/USD pair weakened as Federal Reserve officials, including Waller, signaled reluctance to lower rates promptly, boosting the US dollar amid concerns about inflation and delaying monetary easing.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

In the latest trading session, the USD/JPY pair inched slightly upwards by 0.03%, positioning itself at 151.354. This subtle movement underscores a cautious optimism among traders, hinting at potential bullish momentum for the pair. With the pivot point firmly established at 151.02, USD/JPY finds itself at a crossroads, where any shift above this level could pave the way for a further ascent.

Immediate resistance markers are set at 151.97, 152.59, and 153.17, delineating clear targets for bullish traders. Conversely, support levels at 150.30, 149.74, and 148.95 offer a safety net, should the pair experience a downturn. The alignment of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 151.03 with the pivot point reinforces the bullish outlook, serving as a testament to the underlying buying pressure.

Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 52 suggests a neutral to slightly bullish sentiment, providing additional confirmation of the potential for upward movement. This combination of technical indicators points towards a favorable environment for buyers, especially if the pair successfully breaches the pivot point.

In summary, the technical landscape for USD/JPY appears bullish above the pivotal 151.02 mark. Traders might consider entering a long position above this threshold, targeting a rise towards 152.283, while employing a stop loss at 150.423 to mitigate potential risks.

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Daily Price Outlook

- USD/JPY's decline signals a complex trading scenario, with focus on critical technical levels for future direction.

- Defined resistance and support levels frame the expected trading range, guiding upcoming market actions.

- Bullish indicators suggest potential upside, highlighting opportunities for strategic market entries.

In the recent trading session on March 21, the USD/JPY pair experienced a modest downturn, decreasing by 0.24% to close at 150.941. This movement places the pair below its critical pivot point at 151.73, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. Despite this slight retreat, the currency pair faces immediate resistance levels at 151.77, followed by 152.50 and 153.30, indicating potential barriers to upward movement. On the downside, support is found at 149.63, with subsequent levels at 148.95 and 148.20, which could provide some stability in case of further declines.

Technical analysis highlights a supportive backdrop for the USD/JPY, with an upward trendline near the 150.530 level suggesting an underlying strength. A doji candle closing above this trendline could catalyze a renewed buying interest, particularly if the pair sustains above the 150.530 threshold. Both the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 149.59 and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62 reinforce the potential for a bullish trajectory. Traders should closely monitor these key technical markers and market dynamics, which will likely dictate the short-term direction of the USD/JPY pair in the forex market.

USD/JPY - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 150.530

Take Profit – 151.727

Stop Loss – 149.885

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1197/ -$645

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$119/ -$64

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair has been experiencing mixed performance lately, struggling to find a clear direction. This could be attributed to various factors, including uncertainty in global markets, geopolitical tensions, fluctuations in interest rates, or changes in monetary policies by central banks. It's worth noting that the potential for an early rate hike by the Bank of Japan, coupled with improved confidence among Japanese companies, especially in the manufacturing and service sectors, is positive for the Japanese Yen. This contributed to the mild losses in the USD/JPY currency pair.

Furthermore, the risk-on sentiment, backed by the U.S. Federal Reserve indicating it would stick with its plans to cut interest rates, undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen. This was seen as a key factor that kept the lid on any additional losses in the USD/JPY currency pair.

BoJ's Dovish Hike and the Risk-On Mood

It's worth noting that the recent dovish stance by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), along with a prevailing risk-on mood in the market, has exerted downward pressure on the USD/JPY currency pair. The BoJ's decision to maintain accommodative monetary conditions without offering clear guidance on future rate hikes has weakened the Japanese Yen.

Besides this, the risk-on sentiment among investors, driven by positive market sentiment and an improved economic outlook, has further diminished the safe-haven appeal of the Yen. This makes it harder for the USD/JPY pair to rise as traders stay careful due to uncertain monetary policies and global market changes.

Post-FOMC USD Selling Bias and its Impact on USD/JPY Pair

Following the Federal Reserve's announcement of its intention to implement three interest rate cuts by the end of the year, the US Dollar experienced a selling bias. Despite a modest uptick in US Treasury bond yields, the US dollar remained near a one-week low. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a press conference after the meeting, highlighted ongoing low inflation despite recent high readings, which pushed the USD down further. This means the USD weakened because the Fed plans to lower interest rates, and Powell's comments about inflation kept the pressure on the currency.

Therefore, the USD/JPY pair likely experienced downward pressure due to the Federal Reserve's rate cut plans and concerns over inflation, leading to a weakened US dollar against the Japanese yen.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

In the recent trading session on March 21, the USD/JPY pair experienced a modest downturn, decreasing by 0.24% to close at 150.941. This movement places the pair below its critical pivot point at 151.73, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. Despite this slight retreat, the currency pair faces immediate resistance levels at 151.77, followed by 152.50 and 153.30, indicating potential barriers to upward movement. On the downside, support is found at 149.63, with subsequent levels at 148.95 and 148.20, which could provide some stability in case of further declines.

Technical analysis highlights a supportive backdrop for the USD/JPY, with an upward trendline near the 150.530 level suggesting an underlying strength. A doji candle closing above this trendline could catalyze a renewed buying interest, particularly if the pair sustains above the 150.530 threshold. Both the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 149.59 and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62 reinforce the potential for a bullish trajectory. Traders should closely monitor these key technical markers and market dynamics, which will likely dictate the short-term direction of the USD/JPY pair in the forex market.

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Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair has been on an upward trend, finding support around the 147.85 level. The reason for its upward trend can be attributed to speculation surrounding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy stance. BoJ Governor Ueda's concerns over subdued consumption and the potential delay in rate hikes have strengthened demand for USD/JPY as investors favor higher-yielding assets.

Furthermore, diminishing expectations for a June rate cut by the Federal Reserve, amidst persistent inflation concerns, have boosted the US dollar against the Japanese yen. This shift supports the USD/JPY pair's upward trajectory, influenced by the evolving Fed policy outlook. The resilience of US Treasury yields, coupled with expectations of prolonged higher interest rates by the Fed, bolsters the bullish sentiment for the USD/JPY pair.

Market participants will focus on upcoming US Retail Sales data for February, as positive figures would indicate strong consumer spending, supporting expectations for unchanged Fed interest rates. This scenario could maintain the USD/JPY pair's upward momentum.

Concerns Over Spending and Deflation Impact BOJ Policy

On the BOJ front, Governor Ueda is worried that people aren't spending enough money, which is holding back economic growth. Even though the economy is improving slightly, the lack of spending remains a significant issue. Because of this, people speculate that the Bank of Japan might wait longer before raising interest rates. The Finance Minister also mentioned that Japan isn't ready to declare victory over deflation yet.

Therefore, the uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's actions is leading to fluctuations in the USD/JPY pair. Markets remain uncertain about when the Bank will decide to raise interest rates, given subdued consumption and ongoing deflation concerns.

Focus on US Economic Data and Federal Reserve Policy

On the US front, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates has decreased, as indicated by the CME Fedwatch tool. This shift occurred following the release of the inflation report for February. A reduced probability of a rate cut implies that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. This typically benefits the US dollar.

Investors are paying close attention to US economic data, especially the upcoming Retail Sales report. They want to get more clues about what the Federal Reserve might do with its monetary policy.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

On March 14, the USD/JPY pair edged higher, trading up by 0.13% at 147.94. This subtle yet significant move highlights the ongoing fluctuations and investor sentiment in the currency markets.

The pair is currently navigating through a critical technical landscape, with the pivot point set at 147.62. This level serves as a baseline for determining the near-term market direction. Resistance is observed at 148.20, 149.10, and 149.82, marking potential hurdles for upward movements. Conversely, support levels are established at 146.72, 145.89, and 144.76, offering cushions that could arrest any downward trends.

The technical indicators provide a balanced perspective. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 53, suggesting a neutral market momentum with a slight tilt towards buying interest. Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 148.23 closely aligns with the first resistance level, indicating a pivotal point for future price action. Given this setup, a cautiously bearish outlook emerges, recommending a selling strategy below 148.206, with a take-profit target at 146.722 and a stop loss at 148.880.

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Daily Price Outlook

- USD/JPY moves up to 147.94, signaling investor caution with immediate resistance at 148.20 and key support at 146.72.

- Neutral RSI at 53 against a closely aligned 50 EMA and resistance level suggests a critical juncture for USD/JPY's direction.

- Strategy suggests selling below 148.206, targeting 146.722 for take profit, with a stop loss at 148.880, reflecting the nuanced market dynamics.

On March 14, the USD/JPY pair edged higher, trading up by 0.13% at 147.94. This subtle yet significant move highlights the ongoing fluctuations and investor sentiment in the currency markets.

The pair is currently navigating through a critical technical landscape, with the pivot point set at 147.62. This level serves as a baseline for determining the near-term market direction. Resistance is observed at 148.20, 149.10, and 149.82, marking potential hurdles for upward movements. Conversely, support levels are established at 146.72, 145.89, and 144.76, offering cushions that could arrest any downward trends.

The technical indicators provide a balanced perspective. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 53, suggesting a neutral market momentum with a slight tilt towards buying interest. Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 148.23 closely aligns with the first resistance level, indicating a pivotal point for future price action. Given this setup, a cautiously bearish outlook emerges, recommending a selling strategy below 148.206, with a take-profit target at 146.722 and a stop loss at 148.880.

USD/JPY - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 148.206

Take Profit – 146.722

Stop Loss – 148.880

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1484/ -$674

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$148/ -$67

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and remained well-offered around the 147.81 level. However, the reason for its downward rally can be attributed to the bearish US dollar, which lost its momentum in the wake of increasing expectations for an interest rate cut this year. This, along with lower US Treasury yields, put pressure on the US dollar and contributed to the USD/JPY pair's decline. Furthermore, renewed BoJ rate hike bets underpinned the Japanese yen, which was seen as another key factor that kept the USD/JPY pair under pressure. Moreover, the generally weaker tone around the equity markets provided a goodish lift to the safe-haven JPY and kept the currency pair lower for the third successive day.

US Dollar Weakness and Fed Rate-Cut Uncertainty Weigh on USD/JPY Pair

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is still flashing red and showing bearish momentum near its lowest level since February, as uncertainty looms over the Federal Reserve's rate-cut strategy. This lack of clarity is weighing on the USD/JPY pair, indicating a likely downward trend in the near term. Investors are eyeing Fed Chair Powell's testimony, as well as key economic data like the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Trade Balance figures, ahead of the NFP report on Friday. Powell hinted at rate cuts this year but wants more evidence of inflation easing. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari suggests potential rate cuts in 2024, with softer job market data supporting this outlook and keeping pressure on the dollar.

Therefore, the USD/JPY pair is likely to see a downward trend due to the weak US dollar and uncertainty about the Fed's rate-cut strategy, influenced by Powell's testimony and key economic data.

Renewed Expectations of BoJ Policy Shift Bolster Japanese Yen

On the Japan front, the rise in inflation in Tokyo has sparked expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will soon shift away from its ultra-easy monetary policy, potentially boosting the Japanese Yen. Reports suggest the BoJ may consider ending negative interest rates amid optimistic pay negotiation outcomes expected to fuel spending. BoJ officials, including policymaker Junko Nakagawa and Governor Kazuo Ueda, hint at policy adjustments as Japan's economy progresses towards its inflation target.

Therefore, the renewed expectations of a potential shift in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy have bolstered the Japanese Yen, likely exerting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair amid uncertainty about the future direction of interest rates.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

In today's financial landscape, the USD/JPY pair has observed a notable depreciation, sliding down by 0.85% to 148.174, reflecting a bearish sentiment among traders. This movement situates the currency below its pivot point of 147.48, a critical level that could have served as a springboard for potential upward movements. However, resistance levels at 149.34, 149.82, and notably at 150.83, now seem like distant targets for bulls aiming for a rebound.

Conversely, the support framework beginning at 147.70 and extending down to 147.05 and further to 146.23, outlines key zones where buying interest may potentially cushion further declines. This delineation of support and resistance levels underscores the market's current volatility and the heightened sensitivity to underlying economic indicators and policy announcements.

Technical indicators provide a nuanced view of this pair's trajectory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) plunges to 15, signaling an oversold condition that might suggest a forthcoming reversal or relief bounce, yet caution is warranted given the overall bearish context. The MACD's current value at -0.19, below its signal line at -0.44, further confirms the bearish momentum but hints at a potential slowing down of selling pressure. The 50-Day EMA at 149.95, standing above the current price, reinforces the bearish outlook and suggests that the path of least resistance is downwards.

Given these observations, the technical outlook for USD/JPY is predominantly bearish in the short term. Traders might consider entering sell positions below 148.571, with a take-profit objective at 147.479 and a stop loss at 149.202 to manage risks effectively. This strategy aligns with the current market sentiment and technical indicators, offering a pragmatic approach to navigating the ongoing volatility.

Daily Price Outlook

In today's financial landscape, the USD/JPY pair has observed a notable depreciation, sliding down by 0.85% to 148.174, reflecting a bearish sentiment among traders. This movement situates the currency below its pivot point of 147.48, a critical level that could have served as a springboard for potential upward movements. However, resistance levels at 149.34, 149.82, and notably at 150.83, now seem like distant targets for bulls aiming for a rebound.

Conversely, the support framework beginning at 147.70 and extending down to 147.05 and further to 146.23, outlines key zones where buying interest may potentially cushion further declines. This delineation of support and resistance levels underscores the market's current volatility and the heightened sensitivity to underlying economic indicators and policy announcements.

Technical indicators provide a nuanced view of this pair's trajectory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) plunges to 15, signaling an oversold condition that might suggest a forthcoming reversal or relief bounce, yet caution is warranted given the overall bearish context. The MACD's current value at -0.19, below its signal line at -0.44, further confirms the bearish momentum but hints at a potential slowing down of selling pressure. The 50-Day EMA at 149.95, standing above the current price, reinforces the bearish outlook and suggests that the path of least resistance is downwards.

Given these observations, the technical outlook for USD/JPY is predominantly bearish in the short term. Traders might consider entering sell positions below 148.571, with a take-profit objective at 147.479 and a stop loss at 149.202 to manage risks effectively. This strategy aligns with the current market sentiment and technical indicators, offering a pragmatic approach to navigating the ongoing volatility.

USD/JPY - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 148.571

Take Profit – 147.479

Stop Loss – 149.202

Risk to Reward – 1: 2.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1092/ -$631

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$109/ -$63

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the bullish US dollar, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to stop its downward performance and remained bearish around the 149.69 level. However, the declines in the pair were exacerbated by the hawkish comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Hajime Takata, which bolstered the Japanese Yen (JPY) and contributed to the USD/JPY pair's decline. Furthermore, the risk-off market sentiment provided additional support to the safe-haven JPY. On the contrary, the bullish US dollar, supported by upbeat economic data and a hawkish Fed outlook, was seen as a key factor that may help limit the losses of the USD/JPY pair.

Moving ahead, traders seem cautious to place any strong positions ahead of the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. This US inflation data will influence the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future policy decisions, which, in turn, will provide a fresh directional impetus to the USD/JPY pair.

BOJ Policy Outlook and Economic Indicators in Japan

On the BOJ front, a member named Hajime Takata suggested that Japan's central bank should think about gradually stepping away from its super loose monetary policy since they're close to reaching their inflation goal. This means they might start to adjust things as needed. This indicates a more aggressive stance toward potential policy adjustments in response to economic conditions. Furthermore, Japan's finance minister, Masato Kanda, issued a warning about monitoring currency movements closely and being prepared to intervene if volatility escalates.

Therefore, these statements signal a readiness to tighten monetary policy if necessary, which is typically seen as hawkish. This underpinned the Japanese Yen (JPY) and pushed the USD/JPY pair lower.

On the data front, recent reports show that Japanese retail sales rose by 2.3% over the past year until January, which is better than expected. However, industrial production dropped by 7.5% in January alone. This means people are spending more at stores, but factories are making fewer goods, which could affect the economy. The rise in retail sales could strengthen the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the US Dollar (USD) as it suggests increased domestic spending. Conversely, the decline in industrial production may weaken the JPY, as it indicates a potential economic slowdown, impacting the USD/JPY pair.

US Economic Growth and Monetary Policy Developments

On the US front, recent data suggests the economy is performing well. This, coupled with positive comments from Federal Reserve officials, supports the US Dollar. New York Fed President John Williams hinted at potential interest rate hikes this year, depending on how things go, but reaching the 2% inflation goal might take a while. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized caution about inflation and advised patience with monetary policy changes. Boston Fed Bank President Susan Collins also hinted at possible policy adjustments later in the year but acknowledged challenges in hitting the inflation target. This boosts the US Dollar and could help the USD/JPY pair ahead of important inflation data.

On the US data front, the latest update on the country's economic growth came out on Wednesday. It showed that the US economy grew by 3.2% in the last quarter of the year. This is slightly lower than the earlier estimate of 3.3% growth, but it still indicates a strong performance.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

On February 29, the USD/JPY experienced a notable decline, dropping by 0.65% to settle at 149.82. This movement underscores a significant shift in investor sentiment towards the pair, possibly influenced by broader market dynamics or shifts in monetary policy expectations.

The pivot point for the day is marked at 150.11, indicating the level from which the USD/JPY began its descent. Resistance levels are identified at 150.83, 151.22, and 151.62, which could potentially cap any upward correction attempts by the pair. On the downside, immediate support is found at 149.70, with further cushions at 149.27 and 148.95, serving as critical junctures that may arrest the pair's decline and offer opportunities for rebound.

Technical indicators reveal a deeper story. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 33, venturing into the oversold territory, suggesting that the pair might be under significant selling pressure but also indicating a possible ground for reversal if market conditions permit. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 150.31, now above the current price, further highlights the bearish momentum but also marks a potential resistance level for any near-term recoveries.

Daily Price Outlook 

On February 29, the USD/JPY experienced a notable decline, dropping by 0.65% to settle at 149.82. This movement underscores a significant shift in investor sentiment towards the pair, possibly influenced by broader market dynamics or shifts in monetary policy expectations.

The pivot point for the day is marked at 150.11, indicating the level from which the USD/JPY began its descent. Resistance levels are identified at 150.83, 151.22, and 151.62, which could potentially cap any upward correction attempts by the pair. On the downside, immediate support is found at 149.70, with further cushions at 149.27 and 148.95, serving as critical junctures that may arrest the pair's decline and offer opportunities for rebound.

Technical indicators reveal a deeper story. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 33, venturing into the oversold territory, suggesting that the pair might be under significant selling pressure but also indicating a possible ground for reversal if market conditions permit. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 150.31, now above the current price, further highlights the bearish momentum but also marks a potential resistance level for any near-term recoveries.

GBP/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 149.912

Take Profit – 149.302

Stop Loss – 150.319

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$900/ -$800

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$90/ -$80

Daily Price Outlook 

The USD/JPY pair on February 22nd is showing modest fluctuations, with the current price slightly down by 0.05% at $150.205. The currency pair, often seen as a barometer of investor sentiment towards the US dollar against the yen, is experiencing a tug-of-war between different market forces, reflected in the delicate balance on the 4-hour chart.

The pivot point, represented by the green line at $149.895, serves as a gauge for intraday bullish or bearish bias. The pair has immediate resistance at $150.890, which, if broken, may open the door to further resistance at $150.814 and then at $152.496. These levels could potentially cap upward movements or, if surpassed, could signal the continuation of a bullish phase. Conversely, immediate support lies at $149.790, below which the next levels are $149.781 and $149.254. These floors are crucial to watch as they could indicate where buyers might step in to provide a bounce.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently at 53.15, suggests that the pair is in a neutral zone, not overbought nor oversold. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $149.895 is slightly below the current price, providing dynamic support that bolsters the pair's short-term uptrend. The proximity of the price to the 50 EMA indicates a balanced market sentiment.

In summary, the USD/JPY pair is displaying a neutral to slightly bullish trend in the short term, hovering around key technical levels that will define its immediate path. Traders looking to capitalize on this might set a buy limit at $149.781, with a take profit at $150.814, and a stop loss at $149.254 to manage risks while aiming for potential gains.

USD/JPY - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Limit 149.781

Take Profit – 150.814

Stop Loss – 149.254

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.96

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1033/ -$527

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$103/ -$52