Daily Trade Ideas

USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Jan 11, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

- USD/JPY trading at 145.33, near pivot point of 141.69, with resistance ahead at 143.77 and 146.88.

- RSI at 63 and MACD at 0.069, indicating a bullish market sentiment.

- Symmetrical triangle pattern suggests potential bullish breakout; short-term focus on testing resistance levels.

As of January 11, the USD/JPY pair has seen a slight decline of 0.26%, settling at 145.33. This movement positions the pair just above its pivot point of 141.69. Looking ahead, the pair faces immediate resistance at 143.77, with more significant barriers at 146.88 and 148.96. Conversely, support levels are observed at 138.58, 136.50, and 134.24, providing potential fallback points in the event of a downward trend.

The technical indicators for USD/JPY provide insights into the current market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 63, indicating a generally bullish sentiment but not entering overbought territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of 0.069 against a signal line of 0.46800, suggesting the possibility of upward momentum.

Furthermore, the pair’s proximity to the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 145.15 reinforces this bullish trend, though caution is warranted.

A symmetrical triangle pattern is currently in play for USD/JPY. This pattern, typically indicative of a period of consolidation before a breakout, suggests potential bullish momentum if the pair manages to break above the upper trendline of the triangle.

In summary, the USD/JPY pair is exhibiting a cautiously bullish trend. Given the current technical setup and market conditions, the short-term forecast anticipates the pair testing resistance levels, particularly the immediate one at 143.77.

Traders might consider a Buy Limit entry at 145, with a Take Profit target set at 145.959 and a Stop Loss at 144.232 to manage risks effectively. This strategy aligns with the pair’s current positioning and the likelihood of continued bullish momentum in the near term.

USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Limit 145

Take Profit – 145.959

Stop Loss – 144.232

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$951/ -$776

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$95/ -$77

USD/JPY

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Price Analysis – Jan 11, 2024

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Jan 11, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair continued its downward trend and remained under pressure around the 145.50 level as the Japanese Yen (JPY) maintained its bid tone during the early part of the European session on Thursday. However, uncertainty over the timing of when the Fed will start cutting interest rates is keeping USD bulls on the defensive and benefiting the JPY. Traders appear cautious about taking strong positions ahead of the US consumer inflation figures, which might offer cues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future policy decisions and influence USD demand.

Challenges and Cautious Optimism Surrounding USD/JPY Amid BoJ Policy Expectations and Economic Indicators

Despite expectations that the Bank of Japan will maintain its ultra-dovish policy due to government stimulus following an earthquake, the USD/JPY pair faces challenges in making significant gains. Tokyo's low inflation rates and weak wage data reinforce the belief that the BoJ won't abandon negative interest rates soon. In the meantime, the positive equity market sentiment limits the JPY's safe-haven appeal, providing some support for USD/JPY. Investors are cautious ahead of the crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, prompting hesitancy in taking positions to avoid potential losses.

Mixed Impact on USD/JPY Pair Amid Yen Interest and US Inflation Uncertainty

It's worth noting that the Japanese Yen is gaining some interest as traders lighten their negative bets, awaiting the upcoming US consumer inflation data. The expected increase in US CPI by 0.2% in December might impact the Federal Reserve's future decisions. New York Fed President John Williams mentioned they are in a good position regarding rates.

Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen emphasized the need to control inflation. In Japan, real wages fell by 3.0% in November, and Tokyo's core CPI slowed to 2.1% YoY in December. The Bank of Japan considers wage trends crucial, and the OECD suggests the potential for monetary policy tightening. Positive equity market sentiment may influence the USD/JPY pair.

Therefore, the news suggests a mixed impact on the USD/JPY pair. Traders' interest in the Japanese Yen and uncertainties regarding US inflation data may lead to some volatility. Positive equity market sentiment could, however, limit significant downside for USD/JPY.

USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

As of January 11, the USD/JPY pair has seen a slight decline of 0.26%, settling at 145.33. This movement positions the pair just above its pivot point of 141.69. Looking ahead, the pair faces immediate resistance at 143.77, with more significant barriers at 146.88 and 148.96. Conversely, support levels are observed at 138.58, 136.50, and 134.24, providing potential fallback points in the event of a downward trend.

The technical indicators for USD/JPY provide insights into the current market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 63, indicating a generally bullish sentiment but not entering overbought territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of 0.069 against a signal line of 0.46800, suggesting the possibility of upward momentum.

Furthermore, the pair’s proximity to the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 145.15 reinforces this bullish trend, though caution is warranted.

A symmetrical triangle pattern is currently in play for USD/JPY. This pattern, typically indicative of a period of consolidation before a breakout, suggests potential bullish momentum if the pair manages to break above the upper trendline of the triangle.

In summary, the USD/JPY pair is exhibiting a cautiously bullish trend. Given the current technical setup and market conditions, the short-term forecast anticipates the pair testing resistance levels, particularly the immediate one at 143.77.

Traders might consider a Buy Limit entry at 145, with a Take Profit target set at 145.959 and a Stop Loss at 144.232 to manage risks effectively. This strategy aligns with the pair’s current positioning and the likelihood of continued bullish momentum in the near term.

Related News

- AUD/USD Price Analysis – Jan 11, 2024

- GOLD Price Analysis – Jan 11, 2024

- USD/JPY Price Analysis – Jan 04, 2024

USD/JPY

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Price Analysis – Jan 04, 2024

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Jan 4, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair has sustained its upward trend, attracting additional bids above the 143.50 level. The driving force behind this upward movement can be attributed to the devastating earthquake in central Japan, which is perceived as a significant factor undermining the domestic currency. This, coupled with the ongoing recovery of the US Dollar (USD) from a multi-month low, supported by a further increase in US Treasury bond yields, is strengthening the USD/JPY pair.

On the flip side, concerns about a potential escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a sluggish economic recovery in China are dampening investor sentiment. This is evident in the generally weaker tone observed in equity markets. Additionally, the growing conviction that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may deviate from its ultra-loose policy settings is providing support to the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY).

Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is expected to avoid substantial losses due to anticipated changes in the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy. This shift is likely to happen around April following March's annual wage negotiations, with the possibility of an earlier move in January. In contrast, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is projected to carry out a series of interest rate cuts in 2024, possibly commencing as early as March. This could curtail the rise in US bond yields and the strength of the US Dollar (USD).

Traders Exercise Caution Ahead of NFP Report, Eyeing Economic Indicators for Insight

Looking forward, traders are cautious about making big bets and are waiting for clarity on the Federal Reserve's future policies. The focus is on Friday's release of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for insights. Traders are closely monitoring these indicators to gauge the job market and anticipate potential market moves.

USDJPY Pair Gains Amid Yen Weakening and Policy Divergence Expectations

Furthermore, the Japanese Yen experienced a weakening trend against the US Dollar, influenced by various factors, including the seventh consecutive contraction in the au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI, which plummeted to a low of 47.9 in December. Despite this, the Yen finds some support from expectations of a shift in policy alignment between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024.

The recently released FOMC minutes indicated consensus on maintaining controlled inflation, although they lacked clear indications of potential rate cuts, thereby supporting US bond yields and the Dollar. In the US, the ISM Manufacturing PMI showed a slight improvement, and job listings dropped to 8.79 million in November. Investors are eagerly anticipating the US ADP report and the pivotal Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for release on Friday.

Therefore, the USDJPY pair experienced gains as the Japanese Yen declined against the US Dollar. Factors include poor Japan Manufacturing PMI, expectations of policy divergence, and the FOMC minutes favoring the Dollar.

USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair exhibits a bullish trend on Thursday, January 4, as it trades at 143.226, marking a 0.25% increase. The currency pair faces significant technical levels, with the pivot point at 141.43. Immediate resistance is observed at 142.52, followed by higher levels at 143.97 and 145.16.

In contrast, support lies at 139.94, 138.74, and 137.35. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 67 suggests bullish sentiment, nearing overbought conditions. The MACD at 0.2380 signals upward momentum, indicating potential bullish trends.

The pair's position above the 50-Day EMA of 142.97 further supports the current bullish outlook. However, traders should monitor key resistance levels for signs of a reversal or continued bullish trend.

Related News

- GOLD Price Analysis – Jan 04, 2024

- AUD/USD Price Analysis – Jan 04, 2024

- USD/JPY Price Analysis – Dec 28, 2023

USD/JPY

Daily Trade Ideas

USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Jan 4, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

- USD/JPY shows bullish trend, trading at 143.226.

- Key resistance and support levels identified, with bullish sentiment suggested by RSI and MACD.

- Market participants should watch for resistance levels to gauge potential trend continuation or reversal.

The USD/JPY pair exhibits a bullish trend on Thursday, January 4, as it trades at 143.226, marking a 0.25% increase. The currency pair faces significant technical levels, with the pivot point at 141.43. Immediate resistance is observed at 142.52, followed by higher levels at 143.97 and 145.16.

In contrast, support lies at 139.94, 138.74, and 137.35. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 67 suggests bullish sentiment, nearing overbought conditions. The MACD at 0.2380 signals upward momentum, indicating potential bullish trends.

The pair's position above the 50-Day EMA of 142.97 further supports the current bullish outlook. However, traders should monitor key resistance levels for signs of a reversal or continued bullish trend.

USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Limit 143.115

Take Profit – 144.832

Stop Loss – 141.746

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.25

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1717/ -$1369

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$171/ -$136

USD/JPY

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Price Analysis – Dec 28, 2023

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Dec 28, 2023
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY pair continues its downward trajectory, trading around 141.30 in the Asian session on Thursday. This decline is attributed to the release of improved Japanese trade data for November, which bolstered the Japanese Yen (JPY). Specifically, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry reported a significant improvement in Retail Trade and Industrial Production, painting a more robust picture of the Japanese economy.

BoJ’s Cautious Stance on Policy Unwinding

Despite the positive economic data, remarks from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda have introduced a cautious note. On Wednesday, Ueda emphasized the lack of urgency in unwinding the ultra-loose monetary policy, pointing to the low risk of inflation exceeding the 2% target. His comments suggest a continuation of the current accommodative policy, which could potentially weigh on the JPY in the near term.

Fed's Expected Rate Cuts Weakening the USD

Conversely, the US Dollar (USD) faces pressure from market expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in early 2024. Following the Fed’s policy shift in December, speculation has grown around the possibility of up to three rate cuts by the end of 2024, amounting to a total of 75 basis points. This dovish pivot is contributing to the USD's weakening against the JPY.

US Manufacturing Data Influencing Market Sentiment

Adding to the complex market dynamics, the US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index showed a sharper-than-expected decline in December. The 11-point drop, following a 5-point decrease in November, signals a contraction in manufacturing activity, which could influence market perceptions of the US economic condition. Investors are now poised to analyze the Initial Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales data due on Thursday for further insights into the US economy's health.

Global Economic Landscape Impacting USD/JPY Movements

The interplay between Japan's economic resurgence and the Fed’s dovish stance creates a nuanced backdrop for the USD/JPY pair. As traders digest the latest economic data and central bank policies, the currency pair’s movements will be closely monitored. The combination of improved Japanese economic indicators and expectations of Fed rate cuts presents a challenging environment for market participants navigating the USD/JPY trajectory.

USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair, a pivotal player in the forex market, is currently experiencing some downward movement. As of December 28, the pair is trading at 141.270, marking a decline of 0.39%. This movement provides a deeper insight into the pair's current position and potential future trajectory.

The pair finds its immediate resistance at 141.22, with subsequent resistance levels at 143.09 and 144.31. These levels are crucial in determining the pair's ability to rebound and push higher. Conversely, the immediate support for USD/JPY is stationed at 139.96, followed by further support at 138.09 and 136.35. These support levels will be key in preventing further declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for USD/JPY is at 30, indicating that the pair is currently in the oversold territory. This suggests that there might be a potential for a rebound as the pair could be undervalued at these levels. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stands at -0.09, which is below its signal line at -0.31, hinting at potential downward pressure. However, the pair is currently trading below its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 141.96, suggesting a bearish trend in the short term.

In summary, the USD/JPY pair's current market trend leans towards a bearish sentiment. However, considering the oversold condition indicated by the RSI, there could be potential for a rebound. Traders might consider a buy limit entry at 141.011, with a take-profit target at 142.330 and a stop-loss at 140.190, expecting the pair to test these resistance levels in the upcoming days.

Related News

    USD/JPY

    Daily Trade Ideas

    USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

    By LHFX Technical Analysis
    Dec 28, 2023
    Usdjpy

    Daily Price Outlook

    - USD/JPY trades at 141.270, facing immediate resistance at 141.22 and higher levels at 143.09 and 144.31.

    - Bearish trend indicated by trading below the 50 EMA of 141.96, but oversold RSI at 30 hints at potential rebound.

    - Short-term outlook suggests a bearish trend; traders may consider strategic entry points for potential reversals.

    The USD/JPY currency pair, a pivotal player in the forex market, is currently experiencing some downward movement. As of December 28, the pair is trading at 141.270, marking a decline of 0.39%. This movement provides a deeper insight into the pair's current position and potential future trajectory.

    The pair finds its immediate resistance at 141.22, with subsequent resistance levels at 143.09 and 144.31. These levels are crucial in determining the pair's ability to rebound and push higher. Conversely, the immediate support for USD/JPY is stationed at 139.96, followed by further support at 138.09 and 136.35. These support levels will be key in preventing further declines.

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for USD/JPY is at 30, indicating that the pair is currently in the oversold territory. This suggests that there might be a potential for a rebound as the pair could be undervalued at these levels. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stands at -0.09, which is below its signal line at -0.31, hinting at potential downward pressure. However, the pair is currently trading below its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 141.96, suggesting a bearish trend in the short term.

    In summary, the USD/JPY pair's current market trend leans towards a bearish sentiment. However, considering the oversold condition indicated by the RSI, there could be potential for a rebound. Traders might consider a buy limit entry at 141.011, with a take-profit target at 142.330 and a stop-loss at 140.190, expecting the pair to test these resistance levels in the upcoming days.

    USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
    USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

    USD/JPY - Trade Ideas

    Entry Price – Buy Limit 141.011

    Take Profit – 142.330

    Stop Loss – 140.190

    Risk to Reward – 1: 6

    Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1319/ -$821

    Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$131/ -$82

    USD/JPY

    Daily Trade Ideas

    USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

    By LHFX Technical Analysis
    Dec 21, 2023
    Usdjpy

    Daily Price Outlook

    - USD/JPY slides under the 143.00 mark, facing immediate resistance at 143.171.

    - The RSI leans toward a bearish outlook, staying below the midpoint of 50.

    - The pair's dip under the 50-day EMA suggests potential bearish momentum ahead.

    The USD/JPY currency pair is presenting a subdued performance, recently dipping below the 143.00 psychological mark, and now trades at 142.939. This represents a modest retreat of 0.06% within a 24-hour window as observed in the 4-hour chart. Currently, the pair is grappling with a downward pressure that has nudged it beneath the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) pivot point of 143.827, potentially signaling a bearish shift in momentum.

    Resistances lie overhead at 143.171 and a more pronounced one at 143.827, which coincides with the 50 EMA, followed by a stronger barrier at 144.936. To the downside, immediate support emerges at 141.009, with a further safety net at 138.977. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a gauge of market sentiment, underscores this bearish inclination, registering at 44.69, below the neutral threshold of 50.

    This technical configuration suggests the pair may be poised for further declines, with the current slip below the key EMA level reinforcing this outlook. Market participants are now closely monitoring these dynamics, with the potential for continued downward movement if bearish sentiment persists. Conversely, a recovery above the EMA could invalidate this bearish scenario, putting the aforementioned resistance levels back into play. In summary, the USD/JPY is at a technical crossroads, with its near-term trajectory hinging on its ability to either sustain below or recover above the 50-day EMA.

    USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
    USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

    USD/JPY - Trade Idea 

    Entry Price – Sell Limit 143.200

    Take Profit – 141.436

    Stop Loss – 144.242

    Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

    Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1764/ -$1042

    Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$176/ -$104

    USD/JPY

    Technical Analysis

    USD/JPY Price Analysis – Dec 21, 2023

    By LHFX Technical Analysis
    Dec 21, 2023
    Usdjpy

    Daily Price Outlook

    The USD/JPY currency pair has struggled to stop its downward trajectory and continues to face selling pressure, hovering around the 143.00 level. However, this persistent decline can be attributed to a combination of factors, including a weakened US dollar, a more cautious risk sentiment in the market, and an upward adjustment of Japan's growth forecasts. These elements support the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese yen, contributing to the ongoing bearish trend in the USD/JPY pair.

    Japanese Yen Strength Amidst Equities Weakness and BoJ's Ultra-Dovish Stance

    It's important to highlight that the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY) is gaining strength due to a generally weaker tone in equity markets. This boost comes after the Japanese government increased its economic growth estimates. However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintaining an ultra-dovish stance limits further JPY gains.

    Meanwhile, the recent Wall Street slump also contributes to the USD/JPY pair facing pressure. Japan's Cabinet Office raised economic growth projections for fiscal 2023/24 to 1.6%, and for 2024/25 to 1.3%. Despite these positive signs, the BoJ's commitment to a loose monetary policy, which tend to undermine the JPY currency and may help the USD/JPY pair to limit its deeper losses.

    Factors Influencing US Dollar Strength Amidst Federal Reserve Uncertainty and Positive Economic Data

    Furthermore, the US Dollar is getting some support due to uncertainty about when the Federal Reserve will start easing, especially after positive US economic data on Wednesday. Despite talk from influential Fed officials downplaying a shift from their hawkish stance, the US Consumer Confidence Index saw a significant rise in December.

    Surprisingly, Existing Home Sales in November went up by 0.8%, breaking a five-month decline trend. Investors are still anticipating a potential early interest rate cut in 2024, leading to lower US bond yields and limiting the strength of the Greenback. The focus now shifts to key economic indicators, including the final US Q3 GDP, Weekly Jobless Claims, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

    Therefore, the uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's easing timeline and positive US economic data provide some support for the US Dollar. This, coupled with the potential for an early interest rate cut, may limit USD/JPY pair strength.

    USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
    USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

    USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

    The USD/JPY currency pair is presenting a subdued performance, recently dipping below the 143.00 psychological mark, and now trades at 142.939. This represents a modest retreat of 0.06% within a 24-hour window as observed in the 4-hour chart. Currently, the pair is grappling with a downward pressure that has nudged it beneath the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) pivot point of 143.827, potentially signaling a bearish shift in momentum.

    Resistances lie overhead at 143.171 and a more pronounced one at 143.827, which coincides with the 50 EMA, followed by a stronger barrier at 144.936. To the downside, immediate support emerges at 141.009, with a further safety net at 138.977. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a gauge of market sentiment, underscores this bearish inclination, registering at 44.69, below the neutral threshold of 50.

    This technical configuration suggests the pair may be poised for further declines, with the current slip below the key EMA level reinforcing this outlook. Market participants are now closely monitoring these dynamics, with the potential for continued downward movement if bearish sentiment persists. Conversely, a recovery above the EMA could invalidate this bearish scenario, putting the aforementioned resistance levels back into play. In summary, the USD/JPY is at a technical crossroads, with its near-term trajectory hinging on its ability to either sustain below or recover above the 50-day EMA.

    Related News

      USD/JPY

      Technical Analysis

      USD/JPY Price Analysis – Dec 14, 2023

      By LHFX Technical Analysis
      Dec 14, 2023
      Usdjpy

      Daily Price Outlook

      The USD/JPY pair bounced back from its recent low near 141.00 as the Japanese Yen trimmed some of its gains against the US Dollar. However, this recovery was mainly influenced by a positive market sentiment driven by the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and expectations of additional stimulus from China. Furthermore, there is a growing belief that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might end its negative interest rate policy sooner than expected, contributing to the Yen's support and may limit gains in the USD/JPY pair.

      Positive Market Mood and the USD/JPY Pair's Resurgence

      As we mentioned above that the major factor influencing the USD/JPY pair is the positive market mood, thanks to the Federal Reserve's more relaxed approach. It should be noted that Fed recently decided to stop raising interest rates by the end of December and hinted at possible rate cuts in 2024. This move has caused a drop in US Treasury bond yields.

      Consequently, the interest rate difference between the US and Japan has decreased, making it tougher for the Japanese Yen to gain strength. This shift in dynamics is helping the USD/JPY pair's comeback.

      Moreover, optimism about extra support from China is boosting the positive market sentiment, making the Japanese Yen less attractive as a safe-haven and contributing the gains in the USD/JPY pair.

      Factors Affecting the Japanese Yen and USD/JPY Pair

      Another factor influencing the strength of the Japanese Yen is speculation regarding the actions of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). There is considerable discussion about the potential for the BoJ to discontinue negative interest rates sooner than anticipated, possibly even before the outcomes of crucial employment negotiations at major corporations are known. This potential shift in policy is contributing to the appreciation of the Japanese Yen.

      Economically, Japan's Machinery Orders data, which is a key indicator of capital spending, surpassed expectations by increasing by 0.7% in October. On the political front, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's cabinet reshuffle amid a financial investigation highlights the challenges in Japan's political landscape.

      Therefore, the speculation about the Bank of Japan's policy shift and positive economic data boost the Japanese Yen, likely causing a decline in the USD/JPY currency pair. Political challenges add to the mix, influencing exchange rates.

      Looking ahead, traders are watching for monetary policy updates from major central banks in Europe, which could offer short-term opportunities. Furthermore, the upcoming US monthly Retail Sales data, expected to decline for the second successive month by 0.1% in November, will likely influence the USD/JPY pair's trajectory.

      USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
      USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

      USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

      The USD/JPY pair experienced a downward movement of 0.74%, settling at around 141.767. This decline marks a notable shift from recent sessions, with the pair now grappling with the pivotal 138.90 level, which stands as a significant pivot point in the current price dynamics. The chart suggests immediate resistance forming at 141.93, with subsequent barriers at 144.79 and 147.82. On the downside, the pair finds immediate support at 138.81, with further cushions at 135.86 and 133.19, which could be tested should the bearish trend continue.

      Technical indicators display a bearish overtone, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) deeply entrenched in oversold territory at 22, signaling potential exhaustion in selling pressure and the possibility of a reversal if market conditions permit. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stands at -0.373 with a signal line of -0.719, suggesting that downward momentum is waning, offering a glimmer of optimism for bulls in the market.

      The pair's trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 143.89 reinforces the short-term bearish trend. However, chart patterns and RSI levels warrant attention for signs of a potential correction or continuation of the trend.

      While the USD/JPY pair shows a bearish trend in the short term, the oversold RSI indicates that a reversal could be imminent. Should the pair manage to recapture the 141 level, it could set the stage for a retest of the immediate resistance at 141.93. Investors will closely monitor the pair for signs of stabilization or further decline, as the currency navigates through key technical junctures in the days ahead.

      Related News

        USD/JPY

        Daily Trade Ideas

        USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

        By LHFX Technical Analysis
        Dec 14, 2023
        Usdjpy

        Daily Price Outlook

        - USD/JPY dips to 141.767, down by 0.74%, testing key support levels.

        - Oversold RSI conditions hint at a potential shift in market sentiment.

        - Price action below the 50 EMA signals a bearish trend but faces pivotal resistance at 141.93.

        The USD/JPY pair experienced a downward movement of 0.74%, settling at around 141.767. This decline marks a notable shift from recent sessions, with the pair now grappling with the pivotal 138.90 level, which stands as a significant pivot point in the current price dynamics. The chart suggests immediate resistance forming at 141.93, with subsequent barriers at 144.79 and 147.82. On the downside, the pair finds immediate support at 138.81, with further cushions at 135.86 and 133.19, which could be tested should the bearish trend continue.

        Technical indicators display a bearish overtone, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) deeply entrenched in oversold territory at 22, signaling potential exhaustion in selling pressure and the possibility of a reversal if market conditions permit. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stands at -0.373 with a signal line of -0.719, suggesting that downward momentum is waning, offering a glimmer of optimism for bulls in the market.

        The pair's trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 143.89 reinforces the short-term bearish trend. However, chart patterns and RSI levels warrant attention for signs of a potential correction or continuation of the trend.

        While the USD/JPY pair shows a bearish trend in the short term, the oversold RSI indicates that a reversal could be imminent. Should the pair manage to recapture the 141 level, it could set the stage for a retest of the immediate resistance at 141.93. Investors will closely monitor the pair for signs of stabilization or further decline, as the currency navigates through key technical junctures in the days ahead.

        USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
        USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

        USD/JPY - Trade Idea 

        Entry Price – Buy Limit 141.074

        Take Profit – 143.232

        Stop Loss – 139.465

        Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3

        Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$215/ -$160

        Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$21/ -$16 (edited)

        USD/JPY