USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/CAD at $1.38452, pivot point at $1.3819.
- Immediate resistance at $1.3866; support at $1.3781.
- RSI at 61, 50-day EMA at $1.3780 indicating strong bullish sentiment.
USD/CAD is currently trading at $1.38452, reflecting a slight decline of 0.03%. The pivot point for this pair is set at $1.3819, a critical level that could determine the near-term direction. Immediate resistance is identified at $1.3866, followed by $1.3905 and $1.3946.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.3781, with further support levels at $1.3745 and $1.3706.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 61, indicating a relatively strong bullish sentiment but approaching overbought conditions. This level suggests that while there is upward momentum, the pair could face selling pressure if it moves too much higher without consolidation.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.3780, which aligns closely with the immediate support level. This EMA serves as a significant indicator; a move below this could signal a shift to a bearish trend, whereas holding above it may reinforce bullish momentum.
Given the current technical landscape, a strategic entry point is recommended at $1.38190, targeting a take profit level of $1.38958. A stop loss should be set at $1.37792 to manage potential downside risks effectively.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.38190
Take Profit – 1.38958
Stop Loss – 1.37792
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$768/ -$398
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$76/ -$39
USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Immediate resistance at $1.3791, next at $1.3822, and $1.3851.
- Immediate support at $1.3713, next at $1.3674, and $1.3631.
- RSI at 74, indicating overbought conditions.
The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.37696, up 0.06% for the day. The 4-hour chart suggests a bullish trend, with the pivot point set at $1.3791. This level is crucial for determining the market's direction. If the price surpasses this pivot point, the bullish trend is likely to continue.
Immediate resistance is observed at $1.3791, followed by $1.3822 and $1.3851. These levels act as potential barriers to any upward movement. On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.3713, with further support at $1.3674 and $1.3631, which could provide potential entry points for long positions if the price rebounds.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 74, indicating that USD/CAD is in overbought territory. This suggests that a correction could be imminent, although the overall trend remains bullish. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $1.3699, which supports the bullish outlook as long as the price remains above this level.
Given the technical indicators, the suggested trading strategy is to buy above $1.37556, with a take profit target at $1.37910 and a stop loss at $1.37275. This strategy aligns with the current bullish sentiment and key resistance and support levels.
In conclusion, USD/CAD's outlook remains bullish above the pivot point of $1.3791.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.37556
Take Profit – 1.37910
Stop Loss – 1.37275
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$354/ -$281
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$35/ -$28
USD/CAD Price Analysis – July 23, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Despite a bearish US dollar and dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, the USD/CAD currency pair has continued its upward trend, trading around the 1.3763 level and reaching an intra-day high of 1.3773.
This upward movement is largely attributed to the recent slump in crude oil prices, which weakens the commodity-linked Canadian dollar and supports the USD/CAD pair. Conversely, selling pressure on the US dollar, driven by expectations of a possible Fed interest rate cut in September, has capped further gains in the USD/CAD pair.
Effects of Anticipated Fed Rate Cuts and Lower Treasury Yields on the USD/CAD Pair
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has weakened recently due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates. Investors believe the Fed may start reducing rates in September, with possible additional cuts later in the year.
This has led to lower US Treasury bond yields, making bonds less attractive and putting pressure on the dollar.
The weaker US dollar, driven by anticipated Fed rate cuts and lower Treasury yields, has supported the USD/CAD pair, pushing it higher as the Canadian dollar weakens from falling oil prices.
Impact of Falling Crude Oil Prices on the USD/CAD Pair
On the other side, the recent drop in crude oil prices to a one-month low has weakened the Canadian dollar, benefiting the USD/CAD pair.
Oil prices were flat on Tuesday after a European Central Bank official suggested a possible rate cut in September, which offset some pressure from renewed hopes for a ceasefire in the Gaza conflict.
Therefore, the decline in oil prices over the previous sessions has further supported the USD/CAD pair by reducing the strength of the commodity-linked Loonie.
USD/CAD - Technical Analysis
The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.37696, up 0.06% for the day. The 4-hour chart suggests a bullish trend, with the pivot point set at $1.3791. This level is crucial for determining the market's direction. If the price surpasses this pivot point, the bullish trend is likely to continue.
Immediate resistance is observed at $1.3791, followed by $1.3822 and $1.3851. These levels act as potential barriers to any upward movement. On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.3713, with further support at $1.3674 and $1.3631, which could provide potential entry points for long positions if the price rebounds.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 74, indicating that USD/CAD is in overbought territory. This suggests that a correction could be imminent, although the overall trend remains bullish. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $1.3699, which supports the bullish outlook as long as the price remains above this level.
Given the technical indicators, the suggested trading strategy is to buy above $1.37556, with a take profit target at $1.37910 and a stop loss at $1.37275. This strategy aligns with the current bullish sentiment and key resistance and support levels.
In conclusion, USD/CAD's outlook remains bullish above the pivot point of $1.3791.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/CAD stable at $1.36888, nearing overbought conditions with RSI at 65.
- Key resistance at $1.3720; support levels at $1.3672, $1.3653, $1.3629.
- 50-day EMA at $1.3634 supports bullish trend; cautious buying recommended above $1.36783.
The USD/CAD pair is currently trading at $1.36888, showing negligible movement from the previous session. The 4-hour chart delineates significant price levels, with the pivot point situated at $1.3692.
Immediate resistance is noted at $1.3720, followed by $1.3756 and $1.3782. On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.3672, with further support levels at $1.3653 and $1.3629.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned at 65, indicating the pair is approaching overbought conditions. This suggests potential caution for traders as the pair nears resistance levels.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is recorded at $1.3634, which acts as a critical support level, indicating the overall bullish trend remains intact if the price stays above this mark.
The recent stability in the USD/CAD can be attributed to mixed economic signals from both the U.S. and Canada. While the U.S. economy shows robust performance, bolstered by positive economic indicators and speculation about future rate hikes, the Canadian dollar is supported by strong commodity prices, particularly oil, which is a significant export for Canada.
Traders considering positions in the USD/CAD pair should look to buy above $1.36783, with a take-profit target at $1.37133 and a stop-loss set at $1.36591. This strategy leverages the current bullish sentiment while protecting against potential downside risks.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.36783
Take Profit – 1.37133
Stop Loss – 1.36591
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$350/ -$192
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$35/ -$19
USD/CAD Price Analysis – July 16, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair maintained its upward trend, holding strong around the 1.3685 level and reaching an intraday high of 1.3695.
The rally can be attributed to a bullish US dollar, bolstered by recent developments including an unsuccessful attempt on Donald Trump's life, which has bolstered his prospects for the 2024 presidential election, raising expectations of reduced regulations under his potential leadership.
Additionally, declining oil prices have weighed on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD), further contributing to gains in the USD/CAD pair.
Impact of WTI Oil Price Decline and Chinese Economic Slowdown on USD/CAD Pair
On the other hand, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices have been declining for three consecutive sessions, currently trading around $80.30 per barrel. This drop is linked to a slowdown in the Chinese economy, reducing demand from the world's largest oil importer.
China's GDP grew 4.7% year-over-year in the second quarter, down from 5.3% in the first quarter and below expectations of 5.1%. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) noted stable economic operation in the first half of the year with a 5.0% growth rate.
Traders are now focused on Canada's upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, crucial for the Bank of Canada's (BoC) decision on potential further rate cuts post a recent quarter-point reduction in June.
Therefore, the decline in WTI oil prices, driven by China's economic slowdown, may strengthen the USD/CAD pair due to reduced demand for the Canadian Dollar and expectations around the Bank of Canada's policy response to inflation data.
Impact of US Dollar Strength and Fed's Policy on USD/CAD Pair
On the US front, the US dollar gained strength due to recent events, including an unsuccessful attempt on Donald Trump's life, boosting his prospects for the 2024 presidential election and sparking hopes of reduced regulations under his potential leadership.
Additionally, expectations of higher government debt and inflation under Trump's policies further bolstered the dollar. This bullish sentiment strengthened the US dollar against the Australian dollar (AUD/USD), driving the pair lower amid increased risk aversion and dollar demand.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's dovish comments on inflation, indicating confidence in reaching the Fed's target sustainably, raised expectations of potential interest rate cuts, which initially capped gains in the US dollar against the CAD.
Meanwhile, Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly noted a cooling inflation trend, suggesting the Fed is on track toward its 2% target and emphasizing the need for more data before deciding on interest rates. Market sentiment now indicates an 85.7% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, up from 71.0% last week.
Therefore, the US dollar's strength, fueled by events boosting Trump's election prospects and expectations of higher debt and inflation, likely strengthens against the Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) amid increased risk aversion and anticipations of Fed interest rate cuts.
USD/CAD - Technical Analysis
The USD/CAD pair is currently trading at $1.36888, showing negligible movement from the previous session. The 4-hour chart delineates significant price levels, with the pivot point situated at $1.3692. Immediate resistance is noted at $1.3720, followed by $1.3756 and $1.3782. On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.3672, with further support levels at $1.3653 and $1.3629.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned at 65, indicating the pair is approaching overbought conditions.
This suggests potential caution for traders as the pair nears resistance levels. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is recorded at $1.3634, which acts as a critical support level, indicating the overall bullish trend remains intact if the price stays above this mark.
The recent stability in the USD/CAD can be attributed to mixed economic signals from both the U.S. and Canada. While the U.S. economy shows robust performance, bolstered by positive economic indicators and speculation about future rate hikes, the Canadian dollar is supported by strong commodity prices, particularly oil, which is a significant export for Canada.
Traders considering positions in the USD/CAD pair should look to buy above $1.36783, with a take-profit target at $1.37133 and a stop-loss set at $1.36591. This strategy leverages the current bullish sentiment while protecting against potential downside risks.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – July 16, 2024
USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/CAD trading at $1.36341; pivot point at $1.36452.
- Immediate resistance at $1.36700; support at $1.36242.
- RSI at 52.52, indicating neutral market conditions.
USD/CAD is currently trading at $1.36341 on the 2-hour chart. The pivot point is positioned at $1.36452 (Green line). Immediate resistance is observed at $1.36700, with further resistance at $1.36885 and $1.37099.
On the downside, immediate support is located at $1.36242, followed by $1.36036 and $1.35819. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.36357, aligning closely with the current price and acting as a pivot point for potential upward or downward movements.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 52.52, indicating a neutral market position. This level suggests neither overbought nor oversold conditions, leaving room for potential moves in either direction.
The 50-day EMA at $1.36357 is a crucial level to watch, providing insight into the short-term trend. The alignment of the current price with the 50-day EMA suggests that any significant movement could establish a new trend direction.
For traders, a strategic entry point is recommended below $1.36452, with a take profit level set at $1.36036 and a stop loss at $1.36700. Maintaining prices below the pivot point of $1.36452 could indicate a bearish trend continuation, whereas a move above this level might suggest a bullish reversal.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.36452
Take Profit – 1.36036
Stop Loss – 1.36700
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$416/ -$248
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$41/ -$24
USD/CAD Price Analysis – July 09, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD pair maintained its upward trend despite the bearish US dollar. It is currently trading around the 1.3638 level, hitting an intra-day high of 1.3648.
The reason for its upward trend could be attributed to lower crude oil prices, which weighed on the Loonie and contributed to the USD/CAD pair's gains.
Meanwhile, the bearish US dollar, driven by soft employment data fueling speculation of earlier rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), was seen as a key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the USD/CAD pair.
Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of Powell’s semi-annual testimony and key US data. Additionally, Federal Reserve’s Michael Barr and Michelle Bowman are set to speak later on Tuesday.
Weak Canadian Employment Data and Lower Crude Oil Prices Drive Upward Trend in USD/CAD Pair
On the BoC front, the previously released weakening Canadian employment data raised expectations for rate cuts. Canada's unemployment rate rose to 6.4% in June from 6.2% in May, according to Statistics Canada.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices edged lower due to growing peace talks in the Middle East, putting selling pressure on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) since Canada is a major crude oil exporter to the United States. This combination of factors has contributed to the USD/CAD pair's upward trend.
US Dollar Weakens Amid Soft Employment Data and Rate Cut Speculation, Pressuring USDCAD Pair
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is losing momentum as soft employment data fuels speculation of earlier rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Traders are now pricing in a 76.2% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 65.5% last week, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify on the economy and monetary policy to Congress, where his remarks could influence market expectations.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee remarked on the challenge of returning inflation to 2%, while Powell indicated the Fed's commitment to addressing disinflationary pressures.
On the data front, US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 206,000 in June, exceeding expectations of 190,000, following a gain of 218,000 in May. The Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.1% from May's 4.0%, while Average Hourly Earnings decreased to a 3.9% year-over-year growth rate in June, aligning with market forecasts.
Therefore, the soft employment data and rising rate cut speculation are pressuring the USD, leading to potential weakness in the USDCAD pair as market expectations adjust accordingly.
USD/CAD- Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is currently trading at $1.36341 on the 2-hour chart. The pivot point is positioned at $1.36452 (Green line). Immediate resistance is observed at $1.36700, with further resistance at $1.36885 and $1.37099.
On the downside, immediate support is located at $1.36242, followed by $1.36036 and $1.35819. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.36357, aligning closely with the current price and acting as a pivot point for potential upward or downward movements.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 52.52, indicating a neutral market position. This level suggests neither overbought nor oversold conditions, leaving room for potential moves in either direction.
The 50-day EMA at $1.36357 is a crucial level to watch, providing insight into the short-term trend. The alignment of the current price with the 50-day EMA suggests that any significant movement could establish a new trend direction.
For traders, a strategic entry point is recommended below $1.36452, with a take profit level set at $1.36036 and a stop loss at $1.36700. Maintaining prices below the pivot point of $1.36452 could indicate a bearish trend continuation, whereas a move above this level might suggest a bullish reversal.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/CAD trading at $1.37348, up 0.02%
- Pivot point at $1.3754 with immediate resistance at $1.3780 and support at $1.3712
- RSI at 60 and 50 EMA at $1.3691 indicating cautious market sentiment.
The USD/CAD pair is currently trading at $1.37348, showing a slight increase of 0.02% for the day. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is positioned at $1.3754, serving as a crucial level for traders to monitor.
Immediate resistance is located at $1.3780, with higher resistance levels at $1.3805 and $1.3833. On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.3712, followed by support at $1.3688 and $1.3655.
Technical indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 60, suggesting mild bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $1.3691, providing a supportive base just below the current price level.
The market sentiment around USD/CAD indicates a cautious outlook, with traders closely watching for any economic data or market developments that could influence direction. The pair has shown resilience above the pivot point, but the immediate resistance at $1.3780 remains a significant barrier.
Should the price break above this level, it could indicate a stronger bullish trend. Conversely, a decline below the immediate support at $1.3712 may suggest further downside potential.
In conclusion, a strategic approach for traders would be to consider selling USD/CAD below $1.37544 with a take profit target at $1.37115 and a stop loss at $1.37893.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.37544
Take Profit – 1.37115
Stop Loss – 1.37893
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$429/ -$349
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$42/ -$34
USD/CAD Price Analysis – July 02, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair maintained an upward trajectory, hovering around the 1.3743 level and peaking at 1.3756 intraday. This bullish movement was primarily driven by a stronger US dollar, bolstered by higher US Treasury bond yields.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut interest rates to 0.75% on June 5, becoming the first G7 nation to ease monetary policy in the current cycle. This decision exerted downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair.
In contrast, oil prices remained relatively stable on Tuesday, holding close to the two-month highs reached in the previous session.
Market sentiment was buoyed by expectations of increased fuel demand during the summer travel season and speculation about potential US interest rate cuts that could stimulate economic growth. These factors supported the Canadian dollar and helped mitigate losses for the USD/CAD pair.
USD/CAD Pair Rose Amid Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Economic Data
On the US front, the USD/CAD pair's rise is underpinned by a robust US dollar and higher Treasury bond yields. Investor attention is also keenly focused on an upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
However, weaker-than-expected US ISM Manufacturing PMI figures for June have reinforced expectations that the Fed might implement an interest rate cut in September.
Currently, traders are pricing in a 68% probability of a rate reduction, a marked increase from the previous month according to the CME FedWatch tool. Despite mixed economic indicators from the US, the Federal Reserve's cautious stance continues to bolster the USD in the near term.
Therefore, the USD/CAD pair is seeing upward pressure due to a stronger US dollar and higher bond yields, compounded by expectations of a Fed rate cut following weaker US manufacturing data, supporting the dollar despite economic uncertainties.
Impact of Bank of Canada Rate Cut on USD/CAD Pair
On the CAD front, the Bank of Canada (BoC) lowered interest rates to 0.75% on June 5, making it the first G7 country to initiate monetary easing in this cycle. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem indicated that while Canada has room for further rate reductions, they must carefully consider their alignment with the US Federal Reserve's monetary policies.
However, the BoC's decision surprised some market participants due to its dovish stance, which hinted at potential future rate cuts, albeit not necessarily in a linear progression.
Douglas Porter, Chief Economist at BMO Economics, highlighted that future rate changes will depend on signs that inflation pressures are easing, indicating a careful approach to further monetary policy adjustments.
Therefore, the BoC's rate cut and dovish stance have weighed on the CAD, weakening it against the USD as investors assess diverging monetary policies between the BoC and the Fed.
USD/CAD - Technical Analysis
The USD/CAD pair is currently trading at $1.37348, showing a slight increase of 0.02% for the day. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is positioned at $1.3754, serving as a crucial level for traders to monitor.
Immediate resistance is located at $1.3780, with higher resistance levels at $1.3805 and $1.3833. On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.3712, followed by support at $1.3688 and $1.3655.
Technical indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 60, suggesting mild bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $1.3691, providing a supportive base just below the current price level.
The market sentiment around USD/CAD indicates a cautious outlook, with traders closely watching for any economic data or market developments that could influence direction. The pair has shown resilience above the pivot point, but the immediate resistance at $1.3780 remains a significant barrier.
Should the price break above this level, it could indicate a stronger bullish trend. Conversely, a decline below the immediate support at $1.3712 may suggest further downside potential.
In conclusion, a strategic approach for traders would be to consider selling USD/CAD below $1.37544 with a take profit target at $1.37115 and a stop loss at $1.37893.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Pivot Point at $1.3641 critical for bearish momentum.
- Immediate resistance at $1.3666; potential upward target.
- Immediate support at $1.3618; crucial for stabilizing decline.
The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.36491, showing a slight decline of 0.11%. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is marked at $1.3641, a critical level that could determine the pair’s next movement. Immediate resistance levels are identified at $1.3666, $1.3690, and $1.3717.
These levels represent potential upward targets if the price rebounds, indicating a shift in bullish momentum.
On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.3618, followed by $1.3589 and $1.3561. These levels are essential for traders to monitor as they suggest where the price might find stability if the downward trend continues.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 34, indicating that the pair is approaching oversold territory. This could imply a potential for a bounce-back, but traders should remain cautious of further declines.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.3690 acts as a significant resistance level. A break above this EMA would reinforce a bullish trend, suggesting further gains.
However, maintaining a position below the pivot point indicates a bearish outlook. The overall technical outlook for USD/CAD remains bearish below the pivot point of $1.3641.
Given the current indicators, traders might consider an entry price for selling around $1.36658, aiming for a take profit at $1.36239, with a stop loss set at $1.36908.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Limit 1.36658
Take Profit – 1.36239
Stop Loss – 1.36908
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.1
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$419/ -$250
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$41/ -$25