GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 20, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) halted their downward trend and gained bullish momentum, climbing to the 2,522.20 level and reaching an intra-day high of 2,525.23.
The rally was fueled by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which pushed the US Dollar (USD) to a multi-month low, benefiting XAU/USD.
Geopolitical risks also provided additional support as traders await further cues on the Fed's rate-cut trajectory.
The USD has experienced a sustained selling bias for the third consecutive day, driven by the growing belief that the Fed will initiate its rate-cutting cycle in September, a key factor attracting investors to the non-yielding yellow metal.
Weakening US Dollar and Fed Rate Cut Expectations Drive Gold Prices Higher
On the US front, the US Dollar continues to weaken as expectations grow that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September.
This belief has fueled demand for gold, which benefits from lower interest rates. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates a higher likelihood of rate cuts beginning in September, with potential reductions totaling over 200 basis points by the end of 2025.
Fed officials, including Neel Kashkari and Austan Goolsbee, have suggested that discussions about rate cuts are warranted, as the US economy shows no signs of overheating.
However, recent positive Retail Sales data have alleviated recession fears, leading to some uncertainty about the pace of rate cuts.
Investors are now closely watching the July FOMC meeting minutes and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming comments for clues on the Fed’s next move.
This news is likely to boost gold prices as the weakening US Dollar and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts increase demand for the non-yielding metal, which benefits from lower interest rates and serves as a safe haven during economic uncertainty.
Middle East Ceasefire Hopes Rise as Israel-Hamas Negotiations Resume Amid Escalating Tensions
On the geopolitical front, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accepted a proposal aimed at resolving disagreements hindering a hostage release deal with Hamas, raising hopes for a ceasefire that could ease Middle East tensions.
Negotiations are set to resume this week, increasing optimism for a ceasefire, which in turn has boosted investor interest in riskier assets.
Meanwhile, the Israeli army reported recovering the bodies of six hostages from Hamas, while Hezbollah launched rocket attacks on Israeli military targets following Israeli strikes deep into Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley.
Amid ongoing violence, Hamas accused the US of enabling Israel's actions, and protests erupted in Chicago against the Biden administration’s support for Israel.
The conflict has claimed over 40,000 lives in Gaza, with more than 200 people taken captive during Hamas's attacks on October 7.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2512.66, showing a minor decline of 0.09%. The key level to watch is the pivot point at $2523.98.
This level will likely determine the short-term direction of the market. Immediate resistance is found at $2524.11, with further resistance levels at $2540.75 and $2556.71.
On the downside, support is seen at $2491.41, with additional support at $2480.08 and $2461.80.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 66, indicating that gold is nearing overbought territory, which could signal a potential correction.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2459.26, providing strong support for the current uptrend.
Given the technical setup, if gold breaks above the pivot point of $2523.98, it could lead to further bullish momentum. However, if the price falls below $2491.41, we could see a deeper correction.
Conclusion: Consider buying above $2508, targeting $2523, with a stop loss at $2490. A break below $2491.41 could trigger further downside.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis – Aug 20, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Sell Entry: Below $2,510 for a target of $2,480.
- Immediate Resistance: At $2,524.11; a break could signal further gains.
- Support Levels: Watch $2,491.41 and $2,480.08 for potential breakdowns.
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,500.205, reflecting a slight decline of 0.22%. The metal has been trading just above its pivot point at $2,480.00, which is a critical level to watch.
The RSI is sitting at 66, indicating that gold is approaching overbought territory, which may signal a potential for a short-term pullback.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,445.98 is providing strong support and maintaining the overall bullish sentiment.
Immediate resistance is found at $2,524.11, followed by $2,540.75 and $2,556.71. On the downside, the first level of support is at $2,491.41, with stronger support at $2,480.08 and $2,461.80.
If gold breaks below $2,480, it could trigger further selling pressure.
Given the current setup, a sell entry below $2,510 with a target of $2,480 could be a strategic move.
A stop loss at $2,525 would help manage risk if the price reverses and breaks above resistance.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 2510
Take Profit – 2480
Stop Loss – 2525
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3000/ -$1500
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$300/ -$150
GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 19, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) began the week on a bearish note, moving away from Friday's record high, and trading defensively around the $2,500 level.
The retreat in gold's value comes despite dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which continue to support the metal's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
The market's focus is now on upcoming Fed developments, with investors eyeing the release of the FOMC minutes and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium for further cues on the rate-cut path.
Impact of Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Geopolitical Tensions on Gold Prices
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar remains under pressure, touching its lowest level since January, as markets fully price in a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting.
This expectation has led to a decline in US Treasury bond yields, further weighing on the dollar.
Despite last week's upbeat US Retail Sales data and an improved US Consumer Sentiment Index, the Fed’s anticipated policy easing has overshadowed these positive indicators, supporting gold prices.
On the other side, geopolitical risks are also playing a crucial role in limiting gold's losses.
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly following Hamas’s rejection of a ceasefire deal and Russia’s vow to retaliate against Ukraine’s recent cross-border attack, have fueled demand for the safe-haven asset.
Thus, while strong US economic data has exerted pressure on gold, the combination of a bearish US dollar, Fed rate cut expectations, and geopolitical uncertainties may continue to provide a supportive backdrop for gold prices in the near term.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,500.205, reflecting a slight decline of 0.22%. The metal has been trading just above its pivot point at $2,480.00, which is a critical level to watch.
The RSI is sitting at 66, indicating that gold is approaching overbought territory, which may signal a potential for a short-term pullback.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,445.98 is providing strong support and maintaining the overall bullish sentiment.
Immediate resistance is found at $2,524.11, followed by $2,540.75 and $2,556.71. On the downside, the first level of support is at $2,491.41, with stronger support at $2,480.08 and $2,461.80.
If gold breaks below $2,480, it could trigger further selling pressure.
Given the current setup, a sell entry below $2,510 with a target of $2,480 could be a strategic move.
A stop loss at $2,525 would help manage risk if the price reverses and breaks above resistance.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Aug 19, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold faces resistance at $2,477.21, pivotal for further upside momentum.
- Immediate support at $2,432.56, with a strong 50-day EMA at $2,433.43.
- Strategy: Buy above $2,452, targeting $2,477, with a stop-loss at $2,440.
Gold is currently hovering around $2,454.84, down 0.15% for the day. The metal is showing signs of consolidation as it trades within a broad range, with the immediate pivot point at $2,477.00 acting as a crucial level.
The $2,477.21 resistance level is proving to be a significant barrier for gold's upward momentum. If gold manages to break through this level, the next targets are $2,496.82 and $2,515.33.
However, failure to do so could see gold retreat toward its immediate support at $2,432.56, with further support levels at $2,416.68 and $2,400.29.
Technical indicators are showing a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 52, indicating a neutral stance, leaving room for either upward or downward movement.
Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,433.43 is providing strong support, suggesting that the bullish trend could continue if prices stay above this level.
Given the current setup, the strategy is to buy gold above $2,452, with a target of $2,477. A stop-loss should be placed at $2,440 to manage downside risk.
The $2,477.21 level will be key in determining whether gold can push higher or if it will face more selling pressure.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2452.
Take Profit – 2477
Stop Loss – 2440
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2500/ -$1149
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$250/ -$114
GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 16, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) were unable to stop their early-day losing streak and remain under pressure around the $2,454 level, hitting an intraday low of $2,450.
This decline is driven by recent positive US economic data, which has alleviated fears of a sharp economic slowdown and bolstered investor confidence, reducing the demand for gold as a safe haven.
Conversely, rising concerns about a potential escalation in the Middle East conflict and expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing have helped to temper gold's losses.
Traders are now looking ahead to upcoming US macroeconomic releases, including Building Permits, Housing Starts, and the Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, for potential short-term trading opportunities.
Impact of Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Strong US Data on Gold Prices
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar struggled to gain bullish momentum and edged lower as markets fully anticipated a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting in September.
This expectation led to a slight retreat in US Treasury bond yields, restricting the dollar's ability to capitalize on recent gains despite strong US macro data, including better-than-expected Retail Sales for July and a resilient labor market.
Fed officials, such as Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, have suggested that a rate cut could be appropriate soon, given the cooling inflation and shifting risks to economic growth.
On the data front, US Retail Sales rose by 1.0% month-over-month in July, rebounding sharply from June's 0.2% decline and surpassing the 0.3% forecast.
Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 9 dropped to 227,000, better than the expected 235,000 and lower than the previous week's 234,000.
Meanwhile, the US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.9% year-over-year in July, down from June’s 3% rise and below expectations.
The Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 3.2% year-over-year, slightly down from 3.3% in June but in line with forecasts.
Therefore, the bearish US dollar and expectations of a Fed rate cut may help limit gold's losses, even as strong US data puts pressure on gold prices.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Gold is currently hovering around $2,454.84, down 0.15% for the day. The metal is showing signs of consolidation as it trades within a broad range, with the immediate pivot point at $2,477.00 acting as a crucial level.
The $2,477.21 resistance level is proving to be a significant barrier for gold's upward momentum. If gold manages to break through this level, the next targets are $2,496.82 and $2,515.33.
However, failure to do so could see gold retreat toward its immediate support at $2,432.56, with further support levels at $2,416.68 and $2,400.29.
Technical indicators are showing a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 52, indicating a neutral stance, leaving room for either upward or downward movement.
Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,433.43 is providing strong support, suggesting that the bullish trend could continue if prices stay above this level.
Given the current setup, the strategy is to buy gold above $2,452, with a target of $2,477. A stop-loss should be placed at $2,440 to manage downside risk.
The $2,477.21 level will be key in determining whether gold can push higher or if it will face more selling pressure.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Aug 16, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 15, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) has reclaimed its momentum, drawing bids around the $2,459.10 level and reaching an intra-day high of $2,460.36.
This surge is primarily fueled by expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which weakens the US dollar and supports gold prices.
Additionally, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are bolstering gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Iran's decision to ignore Western nations' warnings against retaliating after a Hamas leader was killed in Tehran is making the Middle East more unstable.
This rising tension is leading investors to buy more gold as a safe investment, which increases gold prices.
Impact of Changing Rate Cut Expectations and Fed Caution on Gold Prices
On the US front, the US dollar is weakening as expectations grow for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.
This weaker dollar is making gold more attractive to investors, pushing up its price. Investors are now looking forward to important economic reports coming later this week, such as US Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Industrial Production.
Recent inflation data from July showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% from the previous month, with an annual increase of 2.9%.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.2% year-over-year.
These figures will help investors gauge the future direction of the economy and Federal Reserve policies, influencing gold and other financial markets.
Phillip Streible from Blue Line Futures mentions that market expectations have changed from a 50 basis point rate cut to a smaller 25 basis point cut, which is slowing gold's price increase.
Now, there is a 41% chance of a 50 basis point cut, down from 50% before the recent inflation data was released.
Additionally, Federal Reserve officials, including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, are being cautious and not committing to a specific rate cut schedule. This uncertainty is affecting gold’s momentum as investors adjust their expectations.
Therefore, the expectation of a smaller 25 basis point rate cut, along with cautious Fed officials, is likely to slow down gold's price increase. While a weaker dollar helps support gold, the reduced likelihood of a bigger rate cut may limit how much gold can rise.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Gold is showing some strength as it edges higher, currently trading at $2,456.89. The price is slightly above the pivot point at $2,452.47, suggesting a bullish bias in the near term.
The 4-hour chart shows that the price has been supported by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is currently at $2,451.75, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
Immediate resistance is seen at $2,477.21, followed by more substantial resistance levels at $2,496.82 and $2,515.33.
If gold can break through these levels, it could signal a stronger upward move. On the downside, immediate support lies at $2,433.75, with further support at $2,416.68 and $2,397.96.
These levels are crucial to watch, as a break below the pivot point could shift momentum to the bears.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 52, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for further movement in either direction.
However, with the price holding above the pivot and the 50 EMA, the short-term outlook remains positive.
For those looking to enter a position, buying above $2,452 with a take-profit target at $2,477 could be a strategic move. A stop-loss at $2,440 would help manage risk if the market reverses.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis – Aug 15, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Buy Entry: Above $2,452 for potential gains toward $2,477.
- Immediate Resistance: At $2,477.21; a break above could signal further upside.
- Support Levels: First support at $2,433.75; a break below could shift momentum downward.
Gold is showing some strength as it edges higher, currently trading at $2,456.89. The price is slightly above the pivot point at $2,452.47, suggesting a bullish bias in the near term.
The 4-hour chart shows that the price has been supported by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is currently at $2,451.75, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
Immediate resistance is seen at $2,477.21, followed by more substantial resistance levels at $2,496.82 and $2,515.33.
If gold can break through these levels, it could signal a stronger upward move. On the downside, immediate support lies at $2,433.75, with further support at $2,416.68 and $2,397.96.
These levels are crucial to watch, as a break below the pivot point could shift momentum to the bears.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 52, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for further movement in either direction.
However, with the price holding above the pivot and the 50 EMA, the short-term outlook remains positive.
For those looking to enter a position, buying above $2,452 with a take-profit target at $2,477 could be a strategic move. A stop-loss at $2,440 would help manage risk if the market reverses.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2452
Take Profit – 2477
Stop Loss – 2440
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2500/ -$1200
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$250/ -$120
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Watch Pivot Point: Gold's pivot at $2,488.00 is crucial; a break above could signal a bullish move.
- Support Levels: Immediate support at $2,444.65; breaking below may lead to further downside toward $2,421.89.
- RSI Alert: RSI at 65 suggests nearing overbought territory but still room for a potential upward push.
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,469.29, down 0.23% for the day, as it hovers near a critical juncture.
The price is sitting just below the pivot point at $2,488.00, which serves as a significant level to watch.
The daily chart shows that gold has been in a consolidation phase, bouncing between key support and resistance levels.
The immediate support is at $2,444.65, followed by stronger support at $2,421.89 and $2,394.40.
If gold continues its descent and breaches these levels, we could see a more pronounced bearish trend emerge.
On the flip side, the immediate resistance is at $2,496.82, with further resistance at $2,515.33 and $2,535.14.
A break above the pivot point could signal a bullish move, potentially driving the price toward these higher levels.
The RSI is currently at 65, indicating that gold is nearing overbought conditions but still has room to move higher if bullish momentum picks up.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,427.92 is providing underlying support, aligning with the broader uptrend seen over the past few weeks.
Given the current setup, a potential buy entry above $2,455 could be a strategic move, with a take profit target at the pivot point of $2,488.00.
A stop-loss placed at $2,437 would help manage risk in case the bearish scenario plays out. The key is to watch how gold reacts around the pivot point; a clear move above it could open the door for further gains, while failure to break it may lead to a deeper correction.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2455
Take Profit – 2488
Stop Loss – 2437
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3300/ -$1800
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$330/ -$180
GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 14, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) managed to halt their downward trend and regained bullish momentum, reaching an intraday high of 2,478.40 on Wednesday, after stabilizing around the 2,475.31 level.
The gains were primarily driven by renewed selling pressure on the US dollar, which weakened amid soft U.S. producer inflation data, heightening expectations for more significant interest rate cuts. Moreover, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over a potential regional conflict provided further support to the gold price.
Cooling Inflation and Rate Cut Expectations Boost Gold Prices Amid Weaker US Dollar
On the US front, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT, which is expected to cause significant volatility in the US Dollar (USD). This report could shape market expectations for potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in September.
As inflation appears to be cooling, there is growing anticipation of deeper rate cuts, which could benefit gold prices, especially as the USD weakens and US Treasury bond yields decline. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic even mentioned he might support a rate cut by the end of the year if the data continues to confirm this trend.
Recent data shows that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 2.2% in July, down from 2.7% in June, signaling cooling inflation. The CPI for July is expected to show a 2.9% annual rise, slightly lower than June’s 3%, with core CPI projected to decrease slightly.
This cooling inflation, along with a weaker-than-expected jobs report, has increased speculation about multiple rate cuts by the Fed, with market expectations split on whether a 50-basis point cut will occur in September.
This news supports gold's bullish momentum, as expectations of deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts amid cooling inflation weaken the US Dollar and lower Treasury yields. This environment boosts demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, driving prices higher.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,469.29, down 0.23% for the day, as it hovers near a critical juncture.
The price is sitting just below the pivot point at $2,488.00, which serves as a significant level to watch.
The daily chart shows that gold has been in a consolidation phase, bouncing between key support and resistance levels.
The immediate support is at $2,444.65, followed by stronger support at $2,421.89 and $2,394.40.
If gold continues its descent and breaches these levels, we could see a more pronounced bearish trend emerge.
On the flip side, the immediate resistance is at $2,496.82, with further resistance at $2,515.33 and $2,535.14.
A break above the pivot point could signal a bullish move, potentially driving the price toward these higher levels.
The RSI is currently at 65, indicating that gold is nearing overbought conditions but still has room to move higher if bullish momentum picks up.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,427.92 is providing underlying support, aligning with the broader uptrend seen over the past few weeks.
Given the current setup, a potential buy entry above $2,455 could be a strategic move, with a take profit target at the pivot point of $2,488.00.
A stop-loss placed at $2,437 would help manage risk in case the bearish scenario plays out. The key is to watch how gold reacts around the pivot point; a clear move above it could open the door for further gains, while failure to break it may lead to a deeper correction.
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- EUR/USD Price Analysis – Aug 14, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating below the pivot point of $2,473.57.
- Immediate resistance at $2,496.82; break above could signal bullish momentum.
- Support at $2,439.98; a drop below may lead to further declines.
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,462.635, down 0.32% on the 4-hour chart. The precious metal seems to be facing a period of consolidation as it hovers just above key support levels.
The pivot point at $2,473.57 is crucial today; if prices remain below this level, we could see further downside momentum.
Immediate resistance is found at $2,496.82, followed by stronger barriers at $2,515.33 and $2,535.14.
On the flip side, immediate support lies at $2,439.98, with subsequent support levels at $2,417.59 and $2,392.62.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2,425.35, providing a solid floor for now.
The RSI is currently at 65, indicating that while the market isn't overbought, there is limited room for a further upward push before selling pressure increases.
Given the current setup, a sell limit at $2,473 with a target of $2,440 and a stop loss at $2,497 seems prudent.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Limit 2473
Take Profit – 2440
Stop Loss – 2497
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3300/ -$2400
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$330/ -$240