EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Friday’s European session, the EUR/USD currency pair slipped to the 1.0470 level, facing renewed selling pressure after the release of the latest Eurozone PMI data.
The Hamburg Commercial Bank's (HCOB) preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report for February indicated that overall business activity in the Eurozone expanded at a slower-than-expected pace, weighing on the Euro.
In the meantime, the Composite PMI stood at 50.2, slightly below the anticipated 50.5 reading. While the services sector showed growth, its expansion pace was weaker than the previous release.
Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector continued to struggle, though the rate of contraction slowed. HCOB’s Chief Economist, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, commented that economic output in the Eurozone remains stagnant, with sluggish manufacturing only marginally compensated by weak services growth.
Furthermore, the political uncertainties in France and concerns over US trade policies added to the Euro’s woes.
Apart from this, the European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to find comfort in the PMI data, as steady growth alone is insufficient to ease concerns about the region’s economic trajectory. Market participants have fully priced in three rate cuts from the ECB this year, following the central bank’s recent 25 basis point reduction in the Deposit Facility rate to 2.75%.
US Dollar Strength and Market Movers Impacting EUR/USD
On the other hand, the EUR/USD pair is also under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) regains momentum. The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed from 106.30 to 106.65, erasing some of its earlier losses.
However, the losses in US dollar was driven by improved market sentiment as investors reassessed former US President Donald Trump’s trade policies.
While Trump had previously imposed tariffs on steel, aluminum, and Chinese imports, market participants believe his tariff strategy may not be as aggressive as initially feared.
Moreover, European Union trade chief Maros Sefcovic revealed that the US has shown some openness to negotiating tariff reductions. These developments have offered temporary relief to global trade partners, reducing the potential for economic disruptions.
Meanwhile, growing hopes for a Russia-Ukraine truce have also pressured the US Dollar, as Trump has signaled a willingness to engage in further negotiations to end the war, with potential sanctions relief for Russia in return.
On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve (Fed) remains cautious about inflation risks, particularly in light of Trump’s economic policies. Fed officials continue to maintain a restrictive stance, reinforcing the USD’s resilience.
Investors now await the release of the US S&P Global PMI data for February, due at 14:45 GMT, which could provide further direction for the EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.04959, showing minimal movement but maintaining a slightly bearish stance. The pair is hovering just above the key pivot point at $1.04663, which is a crucial support level to watch.
As long as prices stay above this pivot, a bullish reversal is possible, with immediate resistance at $1.05205.
A break above this resistance could propel the pair towards the next targets at $1.05563 and $1.05920, indicating potential upward momentum.
On the downside, if EUR/USD drops below the pivot point at $1.04663, bearish sentiment is likely to strengthen.
The first support to watch is at $1.04003, followed by $1.03565 and $1.03162, marking key retracement zones.
These levels could attract buying interest, but a break below them would confirm a bearish continuation.
The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.04305 is currently acting as dynamic support, reinforcing the potential for a bullish rebound. However, if the price falls below the 50 EMA, it could signal further downside risk.
The technical outlook suggests a strategic entry point to buy above $1.04663, targeting a take profit at $1.05434 and setting a stop loss at $1.04149 to manage risk effectively.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bullish Potential Above Pivot: EUR/USD remains bullish above the $1.04663 pivot, with resistance at $1.05205 and $1.05563 in focus.
- Bearish Risk Below Support: A break below $1.04663 could push prices towards $1.04003 and $1.03565 support levels.
- Strategic Entry Point: Buy above $1.04663, with a take profit at $1.05434 and a stop loss at $1.04149 for effective risk management.
EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.04959, showing minimal movement but maintaining a slightly bearish stance. The pair is hovering just above the key pivot point at $1.04663, which is a crucial support level to watch.
As long as prices stay above this pivot, a bullish reversal is possible, with immediate resistance at $1.05205.
A break above this resistance could propel the pair towards the next targets at $1.05563 and $1.05920, indicating potential upward momentum.
On the downside, if EUR/USD drops below the pivot point at $1.04663, bearish sentiment is likely to strengthen.
The first support to watch is at $1.04003, followed by $1.03565 and $1.03162, marking key retracement zones.
These levels could attract buying interest, but a break below them would confirm a bearish continuation.
The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.04305 is currently acting as dynamic support, reinforcing the potential for a bullish rebound. However, if the price falls below the 50 EMA, it could signal further downside risk.
The technical outlook suggests a strategic entry point to buy above $1.04663, targeting a take profit at $1.05434 and setting a stop loss at $1.04149 to manage risk effectively.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.04663
Take Profit – 1.05434
Stop Loss – 1.04149
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$771/ -$514
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$77/ -$51
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 19, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to maintain its bullish rally and turned bearish around the 1.0421 level, hitting an intra-day low of 1.0419.
The downward trend was mainly due to the strengthening US Dollar, which initially gained support from investor confidence that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates high for a longer period.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar's value against major currencies, recovered to 107.10 on Tuesday before dropping again to around 106.90 on Wednesday.
Despite some positive momentum for the US Dollar, its strength faded as it struggled to extend its recovery. Investors are now convinced that the Fed will not cut interest rates anytime soon, reinforcing expectations that rates will remain steady at 4.25%-4.50% through the March, May, and June meetings.
This cautious stance by the Fed has created mixed signals in the market, leading to fluctuations in the EUR/USD pair.
As a result, the EUR/USD pair managed to recover slightly, ticking higher near the 1.0460 level. The overall market sentiment remains uncertain, with traders closely watching economic data and Fed statements for further direction. While the US Dollar still holds a strong position, its inability to sustain gains has allowed the euro to regain some ground.
ECB's Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on Euro, Limiting EUR/USD Gains
On the European front, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut interest rates three times this year as some policymakers see inflation falling below the 2% target.
Recently, the ECB reduced its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% but did not commit to any fixed monetary easing path. This uncertainty has kept the Euro’s strength in check, balancing out the gains against the struggling US dollar.
Therefore, the ECB’s expected rate cuts weaken the Euro by reducing its appeal to investors. This limits EUR/USD gains, balancing the pair as the US dollar also struggles due to Fed’s steady rate outlook.
Fed's Cautious Stance Limits USD Strength, Supporting EUR/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been under pressure, allowing the EUR/USD pair to gain slightly. Despite this, investors remain confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range for longer.
The CME FedWatch tool suggests no rate changes are expected in the Fed's March, May, and June meetings. This cautious approach from the Fed has limited the dollar’s strength, preventing it from making a solid recovery.
Apart from this, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated at a banking conference that monetary policy needs to stay “restrictive” until inflation shows further signs of improvement. She emphasized being cautious before making any policy adjustments, especially with the labor market and economy still strong.
Daly also commented on the uncertainty around President Trump’s economic policies, stating that their impact on growth, labor supply, and inflation will only be clear once more details emerge.
Investors are now waiting for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the January meeting, scheduled for release at 19:00 GMT, to gain further insights into the Fed’s stance.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.04566, posting a modest gain of +0.01% as traders assess the dollar’s next move amid shifting macroeconomic conditions.
The pivot point at $1.04551 is the key inflection level—holding above this keeps the short-term bullish case intact, while a sustained drop below could invite further weakness.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $1.05205, with a break above potentially paving the way toward $1.05563 and further extension toward $1.05920 if bullish momentum strengthens.
On the downside, support at $1.03922 serves as the first line of defense; if breached, it could accelerate selling pressure toward $1.03321, with $1.02854 acting as a deeper floor.
Technical indicators show a mixed picture. The 50-EMA at $1.04033 is trending slightly below price action, reinforcing a near-term bullish tilt.
However, the broader trend remains fragile, with the euro still struggling to decisively break resistance zones. A failure to maintain above the pivot point could see renewed pressure on the pair, especially if the dollar gains strength.
For traders, a buy entry above $1.04405 offers an opportunity, with a take-profit target at $1.05199 while keeping a stop loss at $1.04023 to manage downside risk.
The euro’s next move hinges on whether it can maintain support and challenge resistance levels. Short-term upside remains intact, but a break below $1.04551 could shift momentum back in favor of the bears.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bullish bias holds above $1.04551, with key resistance at $1.05205 and a breakout target of $1.05563.
- 50-EMA at $1.04033 supports near-term strength, but failure to hold above $1.04551 could invite selling pressure.
- Trade setup: Buy above $1.04405, target $1.05199, stop loss at $1.04023 for risk management.
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.04566, posting a modest gain of +0.01% as traders assess the dollar’s next move amid shifting macroeconomic conditions.
The pivot point at $1.04551 is the key inflection level—holding above this keeps the short-term bullish case intact, while a sustained drop below could invite further weakness.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $1.05205, with a break above potentially paving the way toward $1.05563 and further extension toward $1.05920 if bullish momentum strengthens.
On the downside, support at $1.03922 serves as the first line of defense; if breached, it could accelerate selling pressure toward $1.03321, with $1.02854 acting as a deeper floor.
Technical indicators show a mixed picture. The 50-EMA at $1.04033 is trending slightly below price action, reinforcing a near-term bullish tilt.
However, the broader trend remains fragile, with the euro still struggling to decisively break resistance zones. A failure to maintain above the pivot point could see renewed pressure on the pair, especially if the dollar gains strength.
For traders, a buy entry above $1.04405 offers an opportunity, with a take-profit target at $1.05199 while keeping a stop loss at $1.04023 to manage downside risk.
The euro’s next move hinges on whether it can maintain support and challenge resistance levels. Short-term upside remains intact, but a break below $1.04551 could shift momentum back in favor of the bears.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.04405
Take Profit – 1.05199
Stop Loss – 1.04023
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$794/ -$382
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$79/ -$38
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bullish above $1.04838 – Targeting $1.05406, with a stop-loss at $1.04457.
- Resistance at $1.05205 – A breakout could push EUR/USD toward $1.05563 and $1.05920.
- Support at $1.04453 – A decline below this level may trigger a drop toward $1.03920 and $1.03519.
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.04929, holding just above the pivot point at $1.04832, signaling a potential continuation of its modest bullish momentum. The immediate resistance stands at $1.05205, with a breakout above this level opening the door to $1.05563 and $1.05920.
On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.04453, followed by deeper support levels at $1.03920 and $1.03519. A failure to hold above $1.04453 could shift sentiment toward the bearish side, potentially leading to further losses.
The 50-day EMA at $1.04138 is currently acting as dynamic support, reinforcing the case for further upside if EUR/USD remains above this level. A buying opportunity is present above $1.04838, with a target set at $1.05406 and a stop-loss at $1.04457.
The short-term trend remains cautiously bullish, but traders should watch for a break above $1.05205, as this could accelerate gains toward the next key resistance levels.
Conversely, a drop below the pivot point of $1.04832 could expose the pair to renewed selling pressure, particularly if upcoming economic data or central bank commentary shifts investor sentiment.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.04838
Take Profit – 1.05406
Stop Loss – 1.04457
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$568/ -$381
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$56/ -$38
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 17, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Monday’s European session, the EUR/USD currency pair struggled to extend its gains, remaining under pressure near the 1.0481 level.
Despite the initial upside push, the pair could not break through the psychological resistance at 1.0500, as investors weighed several factors, including trade tensions and economic data.
The Eurozone is currently facing the threat of tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on imported cars, with plans to announce them around April 2. These tariffs are expected to hit Germany, Japan, and South Korea, leading exporters of vehicles to the US.
Although European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Fabio Panetta downplayed the potential inflationary impact of these tariffs on the Eurozone, citing a limited or slightly negative effect, the uncertainty remains a concern for traders.
Panetta suggested that any weakening of the Euro, potentially driven by higher US tariffs and retaliation from Europe, would likely be counteracted by a global economic slowdown.
Moreover, the dovish monetary policy outlook from the ECB, with inflation falling below the 2% target as a primary concern, continues to keep the Euro under pressure.
US Dollar Faces Mixed Sentiment Amid Weak Retail Sales Data
On the US front, the US Dollar has shown some signs of weakness, trading near a two-month low, as market sentiment was affected by a poor retail sales report for January.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, slipped below 107.00, with a sharp sell-off following the release of the disappointing retail sales data. The data revealed a faster-than-expected decline of 0.9%, compared to an anticipated contraction of only 0.1%.
Despite these weak data points, the US Dollar’s outlook is not entirely bearish. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance remains a limiting factor for any significant declines in the USD. With speeches from several Federal Reserve officials this week, markets will look for guidance on the central bank’s monetary policy direction.
Looking forward, all eyes will be on the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for February, which could offer fresh insights into the US economy’s performance. Moreover, the ongoing geopolitical and economic developments surrounding tariffs and the ECB's stance on interest rates will continue to shape the EUR/USD outlook.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.04929, holding just above the pivot point at $1.04832, signaling a potential continuation of its modest bullish momentum. The immediate resistance stands at $1.05205, with a breakout above this level opening the door to $1.05563 and $1.05920.
On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.04453, followed by deeper support levels at $1.03920 and $1.03519. A failure to hold above $1.04453 could shift sentiment toward the bearish side, potentially leading to further losses.
The 50-day EMA at $1.04138 is currently acting as dynamic support, reinforcing the case for further upside if EUR/USD remains above this level. A buying opportunity is present above $1.04838, with a target set at $1.05406 and a stop-loss at $1.04457.
The short-term trend remains cautiously bullish, but traders should watch for a break above $1.05205, as this could accelerate gains toward the next key resistance levels.
Conversely, a drop below the pivot point of $1.04832 could expose the pair to renewed selling pressure, particularly if upcoming economic data or central bank commentary shifts investor sentiment.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Key Resistance: 1.04927 – Breakout could target 1.05326.
- Key Support: 1.03916 – A break below may accelerate declines.
- Outlook: Bullish above 1.04371; target set at 1.04939.
The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.04560, down 0.01%, as the euro faces renewed pressure amid mixed macroeconomic signals. The pair continues to consolidate near its pivot point of 1.04369, suggesting a period of indecision for traders.
Technically, the pair remains above the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.03703, indicating underlying bullish potential. Immediate resistance is observed at 1.04927, with further targets at 1.05326 and 1.05696 if upward momentum strengthens.
A clear break above 1.04927 could attract fresh buying interest and shift the short-term outlook to bullish.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 1.03916, followed by 1.03452. A drop below these levels could expose the pair to further losses, with the next key support at 1.02963. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral, hinting at possible volatility if the pair approaches the 1.04369 pivot.
Fundamentally, the euro remains vulnerable to external economic factors, including the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on rate adjustments and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
The latest PPI figures in the U.S. came in hotter than expected, reinforcing the Fed’s hawkish narrative and giving the dollar a slight edge. Meanwhile, investors are closely monitoring European inflation data due later this week, which could provide further direction.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.04371
Take Profit – 1.04939
Stop Loss – 1.03990
Risk to Reward – 1:1.49
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$568/ -$381
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$56/ -$38
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair prolonged its upward trend and remained well bid around the 1.0480 level. The reason for this bullish rally could be tied to increased demand for riskier assets and a weaker US dollar.
Investors are feeling more optimistic due to multiple positive developments, including the delay in Trump's proposed tariffs and hopes for peace between Russia and Ukraine. This has reduced the demand for the safe-haven US dollar, making the euro more attractive.
Euro Gains Support but Faces Pressure from ECB Rate Cut Expectations
On the EUR front, the shared currency has been supported by positive developments, including optimism over a potential Russia-Ukraine truce. If the conflict ends, it could significantly improve the Eurozone’s energy supply and ease supply chain disruptions.
However, the European Commission has strongly opposed Trump's proposed reciprocal tariffs, calling them a step "in the wrong direction" and warning of an immediate and firm response. While the delay in these tariffs has provided temporary relief, trade tensions remain a risk for the Euro.
At the same time, expectations of further rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) could put pressure on the Euro against the US dollar. Several ECB officials, including Croatian central bank Governor Boris Vujčić, have signaled that three more rate cuts this year seem reasonable.
The ECB already lowered rates by 25 basis points to 2.75% last month, and if more cuts happen, the widening rate gap with the Federal Reserve could weaken the Euro.
Despite these concerns, the Eurozone economy showed slight growth in Q4 2024, with GDP rising by 0.1% compared to initial estimates of 0%. Employment also grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 0.6% year-on-year. While these figures indicate slow but steady progress, traders remain cautious about the Euro’s outlook against the US dollar.
US Dollar Weakens on Trade and Peace Hopes, but Fed’s Stance Limits Losses
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar edged lower as safe-haven demand faded due to a delay in Trump's reciprocal tariffs and growing hopes for peace between Russia and Ukraine.
This led to a fresh four-week low in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s performance against major currencies, slipping below 107.00. The reduced demand for the USD has given the Euro some support, helping EUR/USD stay strong.
However, the US dollar's outlook is not entirely bearish, as traders expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates high for an extended period.
The Fed's current rate range of 4.25%-4.50% is expected to remain unchanged for at least the next three meetings, with a 50% chance of a rate cut in July. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently stated that the central bank is ready to keep rates high if inflation remains above the 2% target and the economy stays strong.
Looking ahead, investors are closely watching US Retail Sales data for January, which is set to be released at 13:30 GMT. Economists expect a 0.1% decline in sales after a 0.4% rise in December. If the data is weaker than expected, it could put more pressure on the US dollar and further support EUR/USD.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.04560, down 0.01%, as the euro faces renewed pressure amid mixed macroeconomic signals. The pair continues to consolidate near its pivot point of 1.04369, suggesting a period of indecision for traders.
Technically, the pair remains above the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.03703, indicating underlying bullish potential. Immediate resistance is observed at 1.04927, with further targets at 1.05326 and 1.05696 if upward momentum strengthens.
A clear break above 1.04927 could attract fresh buying interest and shift the short-term outlook to bullish.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 1.03916, followed by 1.03452. A drop below these levels could expose the pair to further losses, with the next key support at 1.02963. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral, hinting at possible volatility if the pair approaches the 1.04369 pivot.
Fundamentally, the euro remains vulnerable to external economic factors, including the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on rate adjustments and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
The latest PPI figures in the U.S. came in hotter than expected, reinforcing the Fed’s hawkish narrative and giving the dollar a slight edge. Meanwhile, investors are closely monitoring European inflation data due later this week, which could provide further direction.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD remains bearish below the $1.03670 pivot level.
- Immediate resistance at $1.04093; breakout needed for bullish momentum.
- Support at $1.02997; break below could accelerate losses toward $1.02551.
EUR/USD is hovering around $1.03581, showing slight weakness as the U.S. dollar maintains its strength. The pair has slipped below its pivot point at $1.03670, reinforcing a short-term bearish bias.
Persistent concerns over Federal Reserve policy tightening and resilient U.S. economic data have kept pressure on the euro, limiting its upside potential.
On the technical side, the 50-day EMA at $1.03465 is acting as a dynamic support level. Immediate resistance stands at $1.04093, with a breakout above this level potentially opening the door to further gains toward $1.04497 and $1.04922. However, the current trend suggests that buyers remain cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
Downside risks are evident, with $1.02997 serving as the first major support level. A sustained break below this level could accelerate losses toward $1.02551, followed by a deeper decline toward $1.02135.
Given the technical setup, traders may look for sell positions below $1.03674, targeting $1.03007, while maintaining a stop loss at $1.04115.
Looking ahead, market participants will be closely watching U.S. inflation data and any Federal Reserve commentary for signals on future rate policy.
A softer inflation reading could weaken the dollar and support the euro, while persistent inflationary pressures may reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance, keeping EUR/USD under pressure.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.03674
Take Profit – 1.03007
Stop Loss – 1.04115
Risk to Reward – 1:1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$667/ -$441
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$66/ -$44
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 12, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session on Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair moved higher, reaching close to 1.0380 ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January, set to be released at 13:30 GMT.
The Euro (EUR) continued to perform well, strengthening against most other major currencies. This rise came despite growing concerns about a potential trade war between the US and the Eurozone.
At the same time, tensions between the US and the European Union (EU) were rising. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that the EU would not stand by if President Donald Trump’s administration went ahead with imposing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.
EUR/USD Holds Firm Amid Trade War Concerns and ECB Rate Cut Expectations
On the EUR front, the shared currency has managed to hold its ground and continues to perform well against major peers, even as concerns over a trade war between the US and the Eurozone grow.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that the EU would not stay silent if the US imposes 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.
She made it clear that the EU is prepared to take action to protect its economic interests and could introduce countermeasures in response. This growing tension has added uncertainty to the market, but the Euro remains steady, keeping EUR/USD firm.
Former US President Donald Trump has already signed executive orders enforcing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports without any exemptions, aiming to boost local production. He is also considering imposing similar tariffs on other countries he believes engage in unfair trade practices.
Market participants worry that the Eurozone could face additional pressure from reciprocal tariffs. Currently, the EU imposes a 10% tariff on US automobile imports, while US domestic cars entering the EU face a lower 2.5% import duty. These trade conflicts could weigh on EUR/USD movements in the coming days.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce more interest rate cuts this year, as inflation remains below its 2% target. ECB policymaker and Bank of France head Francois Villeroy de Galhau has warned that Trump’s trade policies could harm the economy in the long run.
Investors are also awaiting the European Commission’s economic growth forecasts, which will be released on Thursday and could influence EUR/USD trading.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is hovering around $1.03581, showing slight weakness as the U.S. dollar maintains its strength. The pair has slipped below its pivot point at $1.03670, reinforcing a short-term bearish bias.
Persistent concerns over Federal Reserve policy tightening and resilient U.S. economic data have kept pressure on the euro, limiting its upside potential.
On the technical side, the 50-day EMA at $1.03465 is acting as a dynamic support level. Immediate resistance stands at $1.04093, with a breakout above this level potentially opening the door to further gains toward $1.04497 and $1.04922. However, the current trend suggests that buyers remain cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
Downside risks are evident, with $1.02997 serving as the first major support level. A sustained break below this level could accelerate losses toward $1.02551, followed by a deeper decline toward $1.02135.
Given the technical setup, traders may look for sell positions below $1.03674, targeting $1.03007, while maintaining a stop loss at $1.04115.
Looking ahead, market participants will be closely watching U.S. inflation data and any Federal Reserve commentary for signals on future rate policy.
A softer inflation reading could weaken the dollar and support the euro, while persistent inflationary pressures may reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance, keeping EUR/USD under pressure.
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