Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair has successfully reached our anticipated target at 1.0880, encountering strong resistance at this level. This resistance is a result of the convergence of the previously breached 61.8% Fibonacci correction level with the resistance of the corrective bearish channel. Additionally, clear negative signals have emerged through the stochastic indicator.

Consequently, we hold the view that there is a valid possibility of a bearish rebound, leading to potential negative price movement in the upcoming trading sessions. The focus is on testing the 1.0785 level as a primary target. It's noteworthy that surpassing the levels of 1.0880 to 1.0890 would negate the projected decline, potentially allowing for further gains toward the 1.0955 region. The projected trading range for today is anticipated to lie between the support at 1.0785 and the resistance at 1.0925.

The anticipated trend for today is bearish.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.08503

Take Profit – 1.09279

Stop Loss – 1.08001

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.55

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$776/ -$502

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$77/ -$50

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair prolonged its upward trend and remained well bid around 1.0890 marks during the Asian session on Wednesday. However, the reason for its bullish bias can be attributed to the retreating US Dollar, prompted by the downbeat economic data from the United States on Tuesday. Meanwhile, there is no news from the European Central Bank (ECB) about potential rate decisions post-summer. Thereby, the traders await the upcoming releases of economic data from the US and Eurozone, seeking a clearer understanding of inflation scenarios in both economies.

US Economic Updates and Fed Outlook

Elsewhere, US Consumer Confidence for August dipped to 106.1 from the earlier 114.0, missing the expected 116.0. Also, in July, US JOLTS Job Openings dropped to 8.827 million, down from 9.165 million prior, contrary to the expected rise to 9.465 million. Market watchers predict the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will delay rate hikes until its September meeting. The CME's FedWatch Tool shows only an 11.5% chance of a rate hike in September.

Thus, this stance is putting downward pressure on the US dollar's value. Furthermore, at the Jackson Hole Symposium, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said their decision on the next rate hike will rely on economic data.

As a result, EUR/USD traders are waiting for new economic data from the US and Eurozone to better understand inflation in both regions. They're especially interested in US ADP Employment Change and preliminary Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q2), which will come out later. In the Eurozone, they're keeping an eye on Consumer Sentiment, the German preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices.

Eurozone Data and EUR/USD Outlook

At home, Spain saw a 2.6% rise in August's yearly inflation, while Italy's Consumer Confidence slipped to 106.5 and fell to -16 in the broader euro area. Later, all eyes will be on Germany's advanced inflation data this month. This information will likely impact the EUR/USD pair. If Germany's inflation exceeds expectations, the euro might strengthen against the US dollar. Conversely, if the figures disappoint, it could put downward pressure on the euro relative to the dollar.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair has successfully reached our anticipated target at 1.0880, encountering strong resistance at this level. This resistance is a result of the convergence of the previously breached 61.8% Fibonacci correction level with the resistance of the corrective bearish channel. Additionally, clear negative signals have emerged through the stochastic indicator.

Consequently, we hold the view that there is a valid possibility of a bearish rebound, leading to potential negative price movement in the upcoming trading sessions. The focus is on testing the 1.0785 level as a primary target. It's noteworthy that surpassing the levels of 1.0880 to 1.0890 would negate the projected decline, potentially allowing for further gains toward the 1.0955 region. The projected trading range for today is anticipated to lie between the support at 1.0785 and the resistance at 1.0925.

The anticipated trend for today is bearish.

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the European Central Bank's (ECB) adoption of a more hawkish stance, the EUR/USD pair is still struggling. While it initially managed to breach the 1.0800 level once again, it concluded the week in the red for the fifth consecutive time. This means that even though the ECB is adoption a hawkish stance, the Euro is not gaining much ground against other currencies.

However, the reason for its bearish trajectory can be attributed to the heightened expectations of another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the year 2023. This development has pushed the US dollar higher, subsequently contributing to the losses observed in the EUR/USD pair.

ECB's Inflation Focus and Rate Hike Caution: Potential Impact on EUR/USD Pair

It is worth noting that during the Jackson Hole Symposium, ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized their ongoing battle with inflation. She underlined the essential role of central banks in maintaining economic stability by keeping interest rates at elevated levels until the targeted 2% inflation rate is achieved. Simultaneously, ECB's Martins Kazaks cautioned against prematurely stopping rate hikes, emphasizing potential risks.

In simpler terms, the ECB is prioritizing the prevention of rapid price escalation, which is why they are opting to maintain higher interest rates for the time being. Thus, this news holds the potential to exert a positive influence on the EUR/USD pair.

Fed Chairman Powell Signals Potential Interest Rate Increase: Impact on EUR/USD Trend

Across the ocean at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated their readiness for more interest rate increases if needed. This stance, driven by strong growth and job conditions, could make the US dollar more attractive against the Euro, particularly if data remains positive. However, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker disagreed, favoring stable rates to gauge their economic impact.

Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester supported higher rates to curb inflation, citing an improving economy. Furthermore, the UoM's Consumer Confidence Index dropped in August, potentially strengthening the US dollar further, as Powell's willingness to raise rates based on growth could enhance the dollar's appeal. This contributed to the EUR/USD pair's downward trend.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

Daily Price Outlook

The EURUSD currency pair currently hovers around the 1.0785 mark. It's observed that the stochastic exhibits a measured waning of its bullish momentum, concurrently with the EMA50 exerting downward pressure on the pair.

Considering these indicators, there's a heightened propensity for the pair to revert to its overarching bearish trajectory, as delineated within the bearish channel depicted on the chart. A definitive breach below the current level could signal a trajectory towards the 1.0700 benchmark. Conversely, surpassing the 1.0835 threshold might catalyze intraday advancements, with a potential aim to approach the 1.0880 mark before any subsequent retracements.

For today, the anticipated trading range is set between the 1.0720 support and 1.0880 resistance levels.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.08033

Take Profit – 1.08406

Stop Loss – 1.07726

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$373/ -$307

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$37/ -$30

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair failed to maintain its recent upward trend and dipped back to around 1.0850 on Thursday. However, the reason for its downward trend can be attributed to the decline in business confidence to 96 in France during August, which added to the Euro's challenges and contributed to the EUR/USD pair declines.

Furthermore, the broad-based US dollar regained its strength, which was seen as another key factor that kept the EUR/USD pair lower. Looking forward, the market's attention is now focused on today's data releases, especially Initial Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders, which are anticipated to impact currency movements.

US Dollar Stability and Focus on Jackson Hole Symposium:

As mentioned above, the US Dollar has managed to find some stability after stepping back from its recent peak, which saw it reach around 104.00 earlier this week. The USD Index (DXY) is currently hovering around the 103.50 level, showing that there is still some uncertainty in the US financial markets. Looking ahead, all eyes are on the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Investors are anticipating Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech on Friday. However, there is a renewed debate about the Fed's commitment to sticking with a more cautious monetary policy for an extended period. This discussion has arisen due to the surprising strength of the US economy, even though there has been some softening in the job market and recent reports of lower inflation.

The EUR/USD pair may experience increased volatility as investors closely monitor developments. If Powell signals a shift in the Fed's monetary stance, it could strengthen the US dollar, potentially pushing the EUR/USD pair lower. However, any hints of continued caution from the Fed may support the euro, leading to a possible uptick in the pair's value.

ECB Divisions and Economic Data Impacting EUR/USD:

At the same time, there are disagreements within the European Central Bank (ECB) Council about whether to continue tightening measures beyond the summer. These internal divisions are causing worries about the strength of the Euro. On the economic data front, the eurozone had a relatively quiet period, with French Business Confidence dropping to 96 in August.

Meanwhile, in the US, investors are awaiting data on Initial Jobless Claims, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and July's Durable Goods Orders. These various factors collectively play a role in shaping the dynamics of the EUR/USD currency pair.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading around the 1.0880 level, maintaining its position just below this level. Notably, the EMA50 intersects with this resistance, lending further reinforcement to its significance. Meanwhile, the stochastic indicator is displaying a clear loss of its positive momentum, signaling overbought conditions at present.

Given these circumstances, we are inclined to anticipate a bearish correction in the upcoming trading sessions, leading to a resumption of the prevailing bearish trend. It is noteworthy that our target for this movement is situated at 1.0785.

However, a breach of the 1.0880 level would negate the anticipated decline and potentially initiate a recovery, potentially resulting in further intraday gains. The projected trading range for today is positioned between the support level of 1.0770 and the resistance level of 1.0920.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading around the 1.0880 level, maintaining its position just below this level. Notably, the EMA50 intersects with this resistance, lending further reinforcement to its significance. Meanwhile, the stochastic indicator is displaying a clear loss of its positive momentum, signaling overbought conditions at present.

Given these circumstances, we are inclined to anticipate a bearish correction in the upcoming trading sessions, leading to a resumption of the prevailing bearish trend. It is noteworthy that our target for this movement is situated at 1.0785.

However, a breach of the 1.0880 level would negate the anticipated decline and potentially initiate a recovery, potentially resulting in further intraday gains. The projected trading range for today is positioned between the support level of 1.0770 and the resistance level of 1.0920.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.08748

Take Profit – 1.08022

Stop Loss – 1.09285

Risk to Reward – 1: 13

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$726/ -$537

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$72/ -$53

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair managed to gain positive momentum for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, climbing back above the 1.0900 mark during the Asian trading session. However, the recent upward movement can be attributed to a statement made by the European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist, Philip Lane, on Friday. He mentioned that the Euro Zone economy is expected to continue growing and is unlikely to face a significant or prolonged recession.

Lane's remarks led to a reduction in the inversion of the German yield curve and supported the possibility of the ECB implementing further policy tightening. This, in turn, has provided a strength to the shared currency and contributed to the EUR/USD pair gains. Moreover, the minor weakness in the US Dollar has also contributed to the favorable conditions for the EUR/USD pair.

Factors Influencing the USD and Their Impact on the EUR/USD Pai

The USD Index (DXY) is currently lower than its highest point since July 12. This is because traders are expecting the Federal Reserve to pause its trend of increasing interest rates in September. However, the US economy is still showing strength, leaving room for the possibility of another slight rate increase of 0.25% by the end of this year. This potential rate hike could prevent significant drops in the US Dollar's value.

Investors widely believe that the Fed will maintain relatively high interest rates for a considerable period. This conviction is keeping the yields on US Treasury bonds at elevated levels. Remarkably, the yield on the key 10-year US government bond recently hit a 15-year high.

In the meantime, investors are moving cautiously due to a general feeling of uncertainty. This has led to the US Dollar being seen as a safe-haven currency. Currently, it's staying slightly above an important moving average. This cautious attitude among investors might discourage them from taking overly aggressive actions regarding the EUR/USD pair.

Market Events to Watch and Their Impact on EUR/USD Trading

Investors are cautious ahead of speeches by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde at the Jackson Hole Symposium, along with upcoming preliminary PMI numbers from the Euro Zone and the US, which provide insights into economic performance and potential central bank actions.

Besides this, attention turns to Tuesday's release of Euro Zone Current Account figures and US data on Existing Home Sales and the Richmond Manufacturing Index. These, coupled with US bond yields and overall investor risk sentiment, will influence the short-term trading dynamics of the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair concluded the previous day's trading session above the 1.0880 level, and as the new day commences, it carries forward an additional bullish inclination. This momentum has prompted a test of the EMA50, which forms a minor resistance point at 1.0915. This development indicates a potential for achieving projected gains within the intraday scope, with an initial target set at 1.0955. It's worth noting that surpassing this level could serve as a catalyst for the price to progress toward the next positive station at 1.1030.

Given the current trajectory, a continued bullish bias is anticipated for the present trading session. It is essential to highlight that any breach of the 1.0880 level would potentially curtail the projected upward movement, causing the price to revert to a correctional bearish phase. The projected trading range for the day is expected to fall between the support level at 1.0850 and the resistance level at 1.1000.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair concluded the previous day's trading session above the 1.0880 level, and as the new day commences, it carries forward an additional bullish inclination. This momentum has prompted a test of the EMA50, which forms a minor resistance point at 1.0915. This development indicates a potential for achieving projected gains within the intraday scope, with an initial target set at 1.0955. It's worth noting that surpassing this level could serve as a catalyst for the price to progress toward the next positive station at 1.1030.

Given the current trajectory, a continued bullish bias is anticipated for the present trading session. It is essential to highlight that any breach of the 1.0880 level would potentially curtail the projected upward movement, causing the price to revert to a correctional bearish phase. The projected trading range for the day is expected to fall between the support level at 1.0850 and the resistance level at 1.1000.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.09046

Take Profit – 1.09330

Stop Loss – 1.08884

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.75

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$284/ -$162

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$28/ -$16

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair starts the week with a slight rise, hovering around 1.0880, indicating that the Euro is gaining a little strength against the US Dollar. Although, traders and investors are seems cautious to place any strong bid as they are anticipating the release of the German Producer Price Index (PPI). This PPI data is important because it provides insights into economic trends.

Investors are excited and anxious to see how the PPI results will impact the EUR/USD currency pair, as it could push the pair's movement in different directions, prompting market participants to closely watch on the outcome.

Eurozone Economic Indicators and Central Bank Dynamics

According to the latest reports, the Eurozone's economy grew by 0.3% in the second quarter of this year, which was in line with expectations. On a yearly basis, the growth was 0.6%. Meanwhile, the good news also came from the manufacturing sector, as industrial production increased by 0.5% in June, beating predictions. This helps ease concerns about rising prices, as July's inflation rate was 5.3%, a bit lower than before.

Hence, the Eurozone's positive economic indicators, including GDP and industrial production, along with lower inflation, could weaken the Euro against the US Dollar due to reduced pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. This potential interest rate difference may impact the EUR/USD pair, making the Euro less attractive compared to the dollar.

Focus on Federal Reserve's Actions and Market Response

Across the ocean, market sentiment is experiencing shifts influenced by the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy. Despite a mix of robust labor data and softer inflation figures, investors are increasingly betting on the possibility of additional rate hikes. However, the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell holds the potential to be a game-changer for market sentiment.

As traders look to the future, the spotlight turns to the Fed's policy trajectory. Powell's speech is expected to provide crucial insights into the Fed's stance on the economy, inflation, and the potential need for further interest rate adjustments. This event has the power to significantly impact market volatility and steer the direction of the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair is exhibiting fluctuations near the 1.0880 level, while also making attempts to consolidate below it. Notably, the stochastic indicator is experiencing a decline in its positive momentum, approaching the overbought zones. Meanwhile, the EMA50 is exerting downward pressure on the price.

As a result, we hold the view that the likelihood of a resumption in the anticipated bearish trend remains valid for the upcoming period. The subsequent significant target lies at 1.0785. It's worth considering that a breach of the 1.0880 level could initiate recovery efforts, aiming for testing the 1.0955 mark before a clear trend direction becomes evident.

The trading range expected for today spans between the support at 1.0790 and the resistance at 1.0950.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair is exhibiting fluctuations near the 1.0880 level, while also making attempts to consolidate below it. Notably, the stochastic indicator is experiencing a decline in its positive momentum, approaching the overbought zones. Meanwhile, the EMA50 is exerting downward pressure on the price.

As a result, we hold the view that the likelihood of a resumption in the anticipated bearish trend remains valid for the upcoming period. The subsequent significant target lies at 1.0785. It's worth considering that a breach of the 1.0880 level could initiate recovery efforts, aiming for testing the 1.0955 mark before a clear trend direction becomes evident.

The trading range expected for today spans between the support at 1.0790 and the resistance at 1.0950.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.08811

Take Profit – 1.08460

Stop Loss – 1.08992

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$351/ -$181

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$35/ -$18