EUR/USD Price Analysis – June 18, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
EUR/USD is presently trading at $1.07198, with market sentiment leaning towards optimism for potential rate cuts as the new trading week begins. Despite Federal Reserve (Fed) officials' cautionary statements hinting that rate cuts might not proceed as quickly as investors hope, the focus remains on the upcoming U.S. economic data for clearer directional cues.
U.S. Retail Sales to Shape Market Sentiment
Attention is set on Tuesday's U.S. Retail Sales report, where an increase of 0.3% month-over-month in May is expected, following a flat performance in April. This data point is particularly significant as it may influence Fed policy decisions moving forward. Core Retail Sales, excluding automobiles, are also projected to show a consistent rise of 0.2%.
Fed Officials Voice Cautious Outlook
Throughout the week, several Fed officials are slated to speak, with their insights eagerly anticipated by the markets. Recent inflation data suggests a quicker-than-expected easing, yet the Fed has expressed hesitation about hastening rate adjustments.
The necessity for more comprehensive data before altering monetary policy has been emphasized, reflecting a cautious approach towards economic recovery.
Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Speeches
As traders await the U.S. retail sales figures and monitor speeches from various Fed officials, the Dollar Index shows modest gains, trading up by 0.2% at 105.125. However, it remains below the recent 1 1/2-month high of 105.80.
This week's economic calendar also includes the release of U.S. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Rate, expected to provide further insights into the economic landscape and potential shifts in Fed policy.
Key Economic Releases:
This week is pivotal for the EUR/USD pair as it navigates through critical economic releases and central bank communications. These events are likely to dictate short-term market dynamics and potentially set the tone for the currency pair's movements in the upcoming sessions.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.07198. The pivot point at $1.07255 is crucial for determining the next move. Immediate resistance is found at $1.07387, with subsequent resistance levels at $1.07577 and $1.07734. These levels need to be breached for a potential bullish reversal. On the downside, immediate support is identified at $1.07000. If this level is broken, the next support levels are at $1.06738 and $1.06499.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently at $1.07734, while the 200-day EMA is at $1.07706, indicating bearish momentum in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 42.30, suggesting that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, but closer to the lower end of the spectrum. This implies a potential for further downside if bearish pressure continues.
The current price action indicates that a break above the immediate resistance at $1.07387 could signal a bullish move, while a drop below the pivot point of $1.07255 may lead to further downside pressure.
Considering the current technical outlook, a sell position below $1.07255 is advisable with a take profit target at $1.06738 and a stop loss at $1.07577.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD bearish sentiment with RSI at 42.30, suggesting potential downside if pivot point breaks.
- Immediate resistance levels at $1.07577, $1.07706, and $1.08082 must be breached for bullish momentum.
- Sell entry below $1.07255 with a target of $1.06738 and stop loss at $1.07577.
EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.07198. The pivot point at $1.07255 is crucial for determining the next move. Immediate resistance is found at $1.07387, with subsequent resistance levels at $1.07577 and $1.07734. These levels need to be breached for a potential bullish reversal. On the downside, immediate support is identified at $1.07000. If this level is broken, the next support levels are at $1.06738 and $1.06499.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently at $1.07734, while the 200-day EMA is at $1.07706, indicating bearish momentum in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 42.30, suggesting that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, but closer to the lower end of the spectrum. This implies a potential for further downside if bearish pressure continues.
The current price action indicates that a break above the immediate resistance at $1.07387 could signal a bullish move, while a drop below the pivot point of $1.07255 may lead to further downside pressure.
Considering the current technical outlook, a sell position below $1.07255 is advisable with a take profit target at $1.06738 and a stop loss at $1.07577.
EUR/USD- Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.07255
Take Profit – 1.06738
Stop Loss – 1.07577
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$517/ -$322
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$51/ -$32
EUR/USD Price Analysis – June 17, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD pair slipped to 1.0670 on Friday before recovering to 1.0700, as political tensions in Europe and disappointing US economic data fueled uncertainty. The recent shift towards right-wing parties in European elections, coupled with a snap election in France, has raised concerns about the region's stability and weighed on the euro.
US Economic Data Disappoints:
In the US, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a six-month low of 65.6 in June, missing expectations of 72.0. Additionally, 5-year inflation expectations rose to 3.1%, indicating persistent price pressures and raising doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to tame inflation.
Diverging Fed and Market Expectations:
The Fed's latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) revealed a more hawkish stance than the market anticipated, with only one rate cut projected for 2024. However, rate markets continue to price in a September rate cut, highlighting a disconnect between the Fed's outlook and market sentiment.
Upcoming Events:
Investors will closely monitor the upcoming G7 meetings and the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index on Monday for further insights into the global economic landscape and its potential impact on the EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is struggling to maintain upward momentum, trading slightly below the 1.07 mark. The 4-hour chart reveals the pair is hovering just beneath its pivot point at $1.0726, signaling potential bearish pressure.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.0802 further reinforces this bearish outlook, acting as a significant resistance level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 34 indicates oversold conditions, hinting at a potential bounce in the near term.
However, traders should remain cautious as the overall trend remains bearish. Key resistance levels to watch include $1.0771, $1.0808, and $1.0847. A break above these levels could negate the bearish outlook and signal a potential reversal.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.0674, followed by $1.0650 and $1.0613.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD trades below pivot point at $1.0726, bearish pressure likely.
- RSI at 34 signals oversold conditions, short-term bounce possible.
- Key support levels to watch: $1.0674, $1.0650, $1.0613.
The EUR/USD pair is struggling to maintain upward momentum, trading slightly below the 1.07 mark. The 4-hour chart reveals the pair is hovering just beneath its pivot point at $1.0726, signaling potential bearish pressure.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.0802 further reinforces this bearish outlook, acting as a significant resistance level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 34 indicates oversold conditions, hinting at a potential bounce in the near term. However, traders should remain cautious as the overall trend remains bearish.
Key resistance levels to watch include $1.0771, $1.0808, and $1.0847. A break above these levels could negate the bearish outlook and signal a potential reversal.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.0674, followed by $1.0650 and $1.0613.
EUR/USD- Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Limit 1.07254
Take Profit – 1.06738
Stop Loss – 1.07559
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$516/ -$305
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$51/ -$30
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD trades below pivot point at 1.0726, bearish pressure likely.
- RSI at 32 signals oversold conditions, short-term bounce possible.
- Key support levels to watch: 1.0674, 1.0650, 1.0613.
The EUR/USD pair is struggling to maintain upward momentum, currently hovering slightly above the 1.07 mark. On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading below its pivot point of 1.0726, signaling potential bearish pressure.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0814 reinforces this bearish outlook, acting as a significant resistance level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 32 indicates oversold conditions, hinting at a potential bounce in the near term.
However, traders should remain cautious as the overall trend remains bearish. Key resistance levels to watch include 1.0766, 1.0798, and 1.0847. A break above these levels could negate the bearish outlook and signal a potential reversal.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 1.0674, followed by 1.0650 and 1.0613. A break below these levels could exacerbate the downward pressure, potentially leading to further losses for the euro.
EUR/USD- Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.07262
Take Profit – 1.06758
Stop Loss – 1.07559
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$504/ -$297
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$50/ -$29
EUR/USD Price Analysis – June 14, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD pair has been experiencing a bearish trend and remained well offered around 1.0690 level, hitting the intra-day low of 1.0671 level. However, this downward movement can be attributed to several factors including the bullish US dollar and growing uncertainty surrounding the French elections.
The shared currency has weakened significantly amidst growing uncertainty surrounding the French elections. French President Emmanuel Macron's decision to call for snap elections following a defeat in parliamentary elections has heightened political instability.
The potential success of Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally party in the French elections is causing concern for the Euro. Markets are worried that if her party gains more influence, it could lead to disruptions in the unity and economic policies of the Eurozone, which in turn negatively impacts the Euro's value.
Euro Under Pressure: French Political Uncertainty and ECB Monetary Policy Impact on EUR/USD Pair
On the EUR front, the shared currency continues to face pressure due to deepening political uncertainty in France ahead of the upcoming legislative elections. President Macron's call for snap elections after facing setbacks has injected volatility into the political landscape, unsettling markets and weakening the Euro.
The potential outcomes of these elections, including the rise of Marine Le Pen's National Rally and the prospects of coalition governments, have exacerbated concerns over political stability within the Eurozone.
Moreover, ECB's monetary policy stance has influenced the Euro's performance against the US Dollar. ECB policymakers have shown caution about the future of inflation, highlighting the difficulties in reaching stable inflation levels.
The potential for additional rate cuts to address low inflation (disinflationary pressures) highlights the Euro's weakness in currency markets.
Fed's Hawkish Outlook and Impact on EUR/USD Pair Amid Soft US Inflation Data
Despite soft inflation data from the US, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has maintained a hawkish stance, which has offset the impact on the EUR/USD pair. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted positive signs in the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, showing cautious optimism about inflation trends.
However, Powell stressed that a consistent improvement in inflation is necessary before the Fed will consider cutting rates further. This aligns with the Fed's current forecast of only one rate cut in 2024, reduced from the earlier expectation of three rate cuts.
Hence, the market's reaction to Fed's policy outlook has been significant, influencing the strength of the US Dollar against the Euro. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Dollar's value against a basket of major currencies, has remained strong and reached monthly highs.
This strength is due to investors adjusting their expectations based on the Fed's guidance on interest rates and monetary policy.
Therefore, the Fed's hawkish stance has strengthened the US Dollar, causing the EUR/USD pair to decline as investors adjust their expectations based on the Fed's interest rate guidance and policy outlook.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is struggling to maintain upward momentum, currently hovering slightly above the 1.07 mark. On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading below its pivot point of 1.0726, signaling potential bearish pressure.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0814 reinforces this bearish outlook, acting as a significant resistance level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 32 indicates oversold conditions, hinting at a potential bounce in the near term. However, traders should remain cautious as the overall trend remains bearish. Key resistance levels to watch include 1.0766, 1.0798, and 1.0847.
A break above these levels could negate the bearish outlook and signal a potential reversal.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 1.0674, followed by 1.0650 and 1.0613. A break below these levels could exacerbate the downward pressure, potentially leading to further losses for the euro.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD trading at $1.07447, down 0.03%, with cautious signals below the pivot point of $1.0766.
- Immediate resistance levels to watch: $1.0766, $1.0798, and $1.0827, crucial for potential upward movement.
- Immediate support levels: $1.0701, $1.0674, and $1.0650, indicating potential bearish trend continuation.
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.07447, down 0.03% in today's session. The pivot point at $1.0766 serves as a critical level for today's market activity.
Immediate resistance is found precisely at this pivot point, $1.0766, followed by $1.0798 and $1.0827. These resistance levels are essential to watch as they represent potential hurdles for any upward movement in price.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.0701, followed by $1.0674 and $1.0650. A breach below these support levels could signal a continuation of the bearish trend, putting further pressure on the euro.
Technical indicators offer a mixed view. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 42, suggesting a slight bearish momentum. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.0797, with the current price trading below this average, reinforcing the bearish sentiment in the short term.
Given the current technical setup, the outlook for EUR/USD remains cautious. An entry price for a buy limit order is suggested at $1.07248, with a take profit level set at $1.07664. To mitigate risk, a stop loss is recommended at $1.07005.
EUR/USD- Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.07248
Take Profit – 1.07664
Stop Loss – 1.07005
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$416/ -$243
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$41/ -$24
EUR/USD Price Analysis – June 12, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD pair has showed a bullish performance, finding support near 1.0764 and edging higher to 1.0765 in the European session. Despite caution ahead of an eventful New York session and uncertainty surrounding the French elections, the pair has shown strength.
However, the drivers behind this upward trend is the anticipation surrounding the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision.
ECB Policymakers Exercise Caution, Impacting EUR/USD Pair
On the EUR front, the shared currency gained traction as investors monitored the European Central Bank's (ECB) cautious approach to managing inflation and wage growth dynamics within the Eurozone. ECB officials, led by Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau, have expressed confidence in the Eurozone's ability to return inflation to its 2% target next year.
However, they emphasize the need to navigate through short-term fluctuations in economic data. This prudent stance by the ECB has influenced market sentiment, notably impacting the performance of the EUR/USD pair.
The ECB is optimistic about inflation in the Eurozone eventually reaching its target of 2% but acknowledges the uncertainty and variability in economic indicators in the near term.
This cautious approach by the ECB has an impact on market sentiment, particularly on currency markets like the EUR/USD pair, as investors and traders adjust their expectations based on the central bank's guidance and economic outlook
US CPI and Fed’s Outlook Regarding Interest Rate Impact on EUR/USD Pair
On the US front, the overall US dollar has been gaining strength as investors become more confident in the economy. Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September are dwindling due to strong job market conditions and ongoing inflation.
This has pushed the US dollar to nearly a one-month high. Investors are now waiting for the latest US consumer inflation data and the upcoming FOMC monetary policy decision.
It's expected that the headline US Consumer Price Index will slightly ease to 0.1% in May from 0.3% previously, while the yearly rate is anticipated to stay at 3.4%, exceeding the Fed's 2% target.
Core CPI is also predicted to remain steady at 0.3% for the month and slightly decrease to a 3.5% yearly rate from April's 3.6%, indicating sustained inflationary pressure. Consequently, the Fed might consider a modest 25 basis points rate cut later in the year, potentially in November or December.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.07447, down 0.03% in today's session. The pivot point at $1.0766 serves as a critical level for today's market activity. Immediate resistance is found precisely at this pivot point, $1.0766, followed by $1.0798 and $1.0827. These resistance levels are essential to watch as they represent potential hurdles for any upward movement in price.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.0701, followed by $1.0674 and $1.0650. A breach below these support levels could signal a continuation of the bearish trend, putting further pressure on the euro.
Technical indicators offer a mixed view. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 42, suggesting a slight bearish momentum. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.0797, with the current price trading below this average, reinforcing the bearish sentiment in the short term.
Given the current technical setup, the outlook for EUR/USD remains cautious. An entry price for a buy limit order is suggested at $1.07248, with a take profit level set at $1.07664. To mitigate risk, a stop loss is recommended at $1.07005.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD is trading at $1.07498, below the pivot point of $1.0798.
- RSI at 23 indicates potential oversold conditions, suggesting a possible rebound.
- 50-day EMA at $1.08528 presents significant resistance, influencing potential upward movements.
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.07498, down 0.48% for the day. The 4-hour chart reveals a critical pivot point at $1.0798, which is essential for determining the pair’s short-term direction.
Immediate resistance levels are at $1.0806, $1.0836, and $1.0872. On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.0728, followed by $1.0701 and $1.0674.
Technical indicators provide a mixed view. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 23, indicating that the pair is in oversold territory, which might suggest a potential rebound if broader market conditions align.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.08528, which is above the current price, suggesting that the immediate resistance could be reinforced by the EMA, making it a critical level to watch for any potential breakout or reversal.
For traders, the recommended strategy would be to set a buy limit at $1.07383, with a take profit target at $1.07977 and a stop loss at $1.07043.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.07383
Take Profit – 1.07977
Stop Loss – 1.07043
Risk to Reward – 1: 7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$594/ -$340
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$59/ -$34
EUR/USD Price Analysis – June 10, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward trend and remained under pressure around the 1.0744 level, hitting an intra-day high of 1.0782.
The upward trend could be attributed to political uncertainty in the Eurozone after French President Emmanuel Macron called for a snap election, which weighed heavily on the Euro.
In the meantime, the bullish US dollar, gaining traction following stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, was seen as another key factor keeping the EUR/USD pair lower. This dampened expectations of Fed rate cuts in September, pushing the US dollar higher and contributing to losses in the EUR/USD pair.
Impact of Eurozone Political Uncertainty and ECB Policy on EUR/USD Pair
On the EUR front, the shared currency weakened due to political uncertainty in the Eurozone after French President Emmanuel Macron called for a snap election following strong gains by Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally in European parliamentary elections. Macron's decision raised worries about political stability, thereby exerting pressure on the Euro.
Meanwhile, ECB policymakers expressed concerns about persistent inflation, particularly in the service sector, which could slow down the central bank's policy-easing efforts.
Despite this, ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized the bank's data-dependent approach, indicating that future interest rate decisions will be based on economic conditions, especially considering the possibility of volatile inflation in the coming months.
Impact of Strong US Jobs Data on Currency Markets and Monetary Policy
On the US front, the previously released stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data has lowered the chances of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts this year. This has strengthened the US Dollar and contributed to gains in the EUR/USD pair.
The robust US employment report has reduced expectations of a Fed rate cut before September, with futures traders seeing almost no chance of this happening, which is likely to support the USD for now.
On the data front, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for May surpassed expectations, with 272K fresh jobs added compared to the anticipated 185K. This strong labor demand extends Fed policymakers' leeway to maintain current interest rates.
Furthermore, Average Hourly Earnings, a gauge of wage inflation, exceeded forecasts, with annual wage inflation accelerating to 4.1% from the expected 3.9%. Month-on-month, wage inflation also rose sharply by 0.4%, higher than the projected 0.3%.
These robust figures indicate growing pressure on household spending, impacting future monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve.
Therefore, the strong US job figures and reduced expectations of Fed rate cuts have bolstered the US Dollar, putting pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Investors are now focused on the UK employment data for May, due on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Fed's decision this week will be in the spotlight.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.07498, down 0.48% for the day. The 4-hour chart reveals a critical pivot point at $1.0798, which is essential for determining the pair’s short-term direction. Immediate resistance levels are at $1.0806, $1.0836, and $1.0872. On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.0728, followed by $1.0701 and $1.0674.
Technical indicators provide a mixed view. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 23, indicating that the pair is in oversold territory, which might suggest a potential rebound if broader market conditions align.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.08528, which is above the current price, suggesting that the immediate resistance could be reinforced by the EMA, making it a critical level to watch for any potential breakout or reversal.
For traders, the recommended strategy would be to set a buy limit at $1.07383, with a take profit target at $1.07977 and a stop loss at $1.07043.
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