EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish Momentum: Prices remain below the $1.04794 pivot and the 50 EMA at $1.05172, reinforcing the bearish trend.
- Support Levels in Focus: A break below $1.04270 could extend declines toward $1.03987 and $1.03667.
- RSI Signals Weakness: RSI at 36 suggests bearish sentiment but indicates nearing oversold conditions.
EUR/USD is trading at $1.04554, down 0.11%, reflecting a bearish tone on the 4-hour chart. Prices hover below the pivot point at $1.04794, signaling sustained selling pressure.
Immediate resistance is at $1.05218, followed by $1.05622 and $1.05973. On the downside, support levels are positioned at $1.04270, with further barriers at $1.03987 and $1.03667, providing targets for bearish continuation.
The 50 EMA at $1.05172 confirms short-term downward momentum, with prices consistently trading below this level.
The RSI at 36 indicates bearish sentiment, nearing oversold territory, which may limit the scope for further immediate declines.
A Sell Limit entry at $1.04791 targets $1.04385, with a Stop Loss at $1.05104 to manage risk. A breach of $1.04270 would open the path to $1.03987, reinforcing the bearish trend.
Conversely, a recovery above $1.04794 could shift the tone, with resistance at $1.05218 acting as a key test for buyers.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Limit 1.04791
Take Profit – 1.04385
Stop Loss – 1.05104
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$406/ -$313
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$40/ -$31
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Dec 11, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session on Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to struggle, unable to break its bearish bias and remained under pressure near the 1.0495 level, dipping to an intra-day low of 1.0487.
This downward trend can be largely attributed to a combination of factors including the growing expectation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will lower its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points to 3% in its policy meeting on Thursday.
This move is seen as a response to economic challenges in the Eurozone, making the Euro less attractive to investors.
On the other hand, the US Dollar is gaining strength, supported by strong anticipation of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, set to be released later in the day.
This has contributed to the US Dollar's ongoing rally, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s performance against a basket of other major currencies, rose above the 106.50 mark, adding further pressure on EUR/USD.
EUR/USD Weakened by ECB Rate Cut Expectations and Economic Concerns
On the EUR front, the major currency pair is weakening due to growing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points to 3% in its upcoming meeting on Thursday.
This would be the third consecutive rate cut and the fourth this year. Traders are anticipating this move as the ECB believes inflation is under control, but economic activity in the Eurozone is struggling.
Many ECB officials are also concerned that inflation might fall short of their target, partly due to possible tariffs from US President-elect Donald Trump and weak domestic demand.
As the market expects a rate cut, investors will pay close attention to ECB President Christine Lagarde’s comments after the decision.
Her words may provide hints about future interest rates. With political issues in Germany and France, along with concerns over Trump’s tariffs affecting European exports, Lagarde may take a more cautious approach. This uncertainty around the ECB’s actions is putting more pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.05270, holding steady despite subdued momentum on the 4-hour chart. The pivot point at $1.05392 serves as a key level for determining near-term direction.
Immediate resistance is positioned at $1.05685, with further barriers at $1.05973 and $1.06321. On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.04978, with subsequent levels at $1.04602 and $1.04270.
Technical indicators highlight a cautious sentiment. The RSI is at 42, signaling weak momentum, while the 50 EMA at $1.05537 suggests a bearish bias as prices remain below this key moving average.
A break below $1.05384 could intensify selling pressure, exposing the pair to potential declines toward $1.04978. Conversely, a recovery above $1.05685 would shift sentiment, opening the path to test $1.05973.
For traders, the recommended strategy is to enter short positions below $1.05384, targeting $1.04978, with a stop-loss set at $1.05697. This setup aligns with the prevailing bearish trend while managing downside risk effectively.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – Dec 11, 2024
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish Bias Prevails: EUR/USD hovers below the pivot point at $1.05392, with support at $1.04978.
- RSI Reflects Weak Momentum: RSI at 42 underscores limited buying interest and a risk of further declines.
- Sell Strategy: Enter short positions below $1.05384, targeting $1.04978, with a stop-loss at $1.05697.
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.05270, holding steady despite subdued momentum on the 4-hour chart. The pivot point at $1.05392 serves as a key level for determining near-term direction.
Immediate resistance is positioned at $1.05685, with further barriers at $1.05973 and $1.06321. On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.04978, with subsequent levels at $1.04602 and $1.04270.
Technical indicators highlight a cautious sentiment. The RSI is at 42, signaling weak momentum, while the 50 EMA at $1.05537 suggests a bearish bias as prices remain below this key moving average.
A break below $1.05384 could intensify selling pressure, exposing the pair to potential declines toward $1.04978. Conversely, a recovery above $1.05685 would shift sentiment, opening the path to test $1.05973.
For traders, the recommended strategy is to enter short positions below $1.05384, targeting $1.04978, with a stop-loss set at $1.05697. This setup aligns with the prevailing bearish trend while managing downside risk effectively.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.05384
Take Profit – 1.04978
Stop Loss – 1.05697
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$406/ -$313
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$40/ -$31
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Dec 09, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD pair continued its bullish momentum, remained well supported around 1.0585, reaching an intra-day high of 1.0586.
Investors are now closely watching the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy decision this Thursday, with most expecting a 25 basis point (bps) cut to the Deposit Facility Rate, bringing it down to 3%.
Many ECB officials have expressed concerns about inflation potentially falling short of the target due to a sluggish economic outlook. On the other side, the US Dollar faced pressure as market expectations rise for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in its upcoming meeting on December 18.
Eurozone Uncertainty and ECB Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on EUR/USD Outlook
On the EUR front, markets are certain that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 3%.
This is because many ECB officials are concerned that inflation may fall below the bank's target due to a weak economic outlook.
The ECB has already lowered the deposit rate by 75 bps this year, and Thursday’s expected rate cut would mark the third consecutive reduction.
Market participants are also worried about the Eurozone’s economic performance, especially with ongoing political uncertainty in Germany and France, the two largest economies in the region.
The situation is further complicated by concerns about the potential impact on exports, particularly with the change in leadership under US President Donald Trump. These factors are contributing to fears of a slowdown in the Eurozone economy.
Moreover, the economic outlook in France has become even more uncertain after the government was recently overthrown. Last week, Michel Barnier became the shortest-serving French prime minister after losing a no-confidence vote from both the Far Right and Left-Wing parties due to his fiscal plans.
In response, French President Emmanuel Macron announced he would find a successor for Barnier “in the coming days,” adding more instability to the country’s political landscape.
Therefore, the political and economic uncertainty in France and the Eurozone, combined with expectations of an ECB rate cut, is likely to limit the EUR/USD pair's upside.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on USD as Investors Await US CPI Data
On the US front, the US dollar faces pressure from strong expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in its December 18 meeting.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, gave up earlier gains and is struggling to hold the key 106.00 support level.
However, the CME FedWatch tool shows an 87% probability of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut to 4.25%-4.50%, up from 62% a week ago, reflecting growing confidence in a Fed policy shift.
In the meantime, the dovish bets on the Fed increased after the November Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report revealed higher-than-expected job growth, adding to signs of economic resilience.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee indicated that the Fed could aim for a neutral rate of around 3% by the end of next year, aligning with projections made during the September meeting.
Looking ahead, investors are watching for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, set to release on Wednesday. Economists expect headline inflation to rise slightly to 2.7% annually, with core inflation steady at 3.3%, which could influence the Fed’s next steps.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at $1.05475, down 0.18%, as bearish momentum tests the pair's resilience above the pivot point of $1.05327. The 50-day EMA at $1.05626 slightly hovers above the price, reflecting a short-term bearish tilt while maintaining a narrow trading range.
Immediate resistance is at $1.05973, with further barriers at $1.06321 and $1.06603, suggesting limited upward movement unless bullish momentum picks up.
On the downside, immediate support is located at $1.05071, followed by stronger levels at $1.04720 and $1.04347, which could attract renewed selling pressure if the pair breaches the $1.05327 pivot.
The RSI at 41 leans toward bearish territory, signaling the potential for further declines before oversold conditions are met.
A break above $1.05973 would reinforce bullish sentiment, targeting $1.06321. Conversely, if the pair dips below $1.05327, it could extend losses toward $1.04720.
Traders should remain cautious, with key macroeconomic data and central bank commentary likely to influence near-term volatility.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – Dec 09, 2024
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish Bias: Trading below the 50 EMA ($1.05626) with RSI at 41 reflects bearish momentum.
- Support and Resistance: Immediate resistance at $1.05973; support levels to watch are $1.05071 and $1.04720.
- Trading Strategy: Buy above $1.05325 with a target of $1.05814 and a stop loss at $1.05065 to mitigate downside risk.
EUR/USD is trading at $1.05475, down 0.18%, as bearish momentum tests the pair's resilience above the pivot point of $1.05327. The 50-day EMA at $1.05626 slightly hovers above the price, reflecting a short-term bearish tilt while maintaining a narrow trading range.
Immediate resistance is at $1.05973, with further barriers at $1.06321 and $1.06603, suggesting limited upward movement unless bullish momentum picks up.
On the downside, immediate support is located at $1.05071, followed by stronger levels at $1.04720 and $1.04347, which could attract renewed selling pressure if the pair breaches the $1.05327 pivot.
The RSI at 41 leans toward bearish territory, signaling the potential for further declines before oversold conditions are met.
A break above $1.05973 would reinforce bullish sentiment, targeting $1.06321. Conversely, if the pair dips below $1.05327, it could extend losses toward $1.04720.
Traders should remain cautious, with key macroeconomic data and central bank commentary likely to influence near-term volatility. (edited)
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.05325
Take Profit – 1.05814
Stop Loss – 1.05065
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$489/ -$260
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$48/ -$26
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Dec 06, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair struggled to break its downward trend, remaining under pressure around the 1.0579 level and hitting an intra-day low of 1.0566.
The recent weakness in the pair can largely be attributed to ongoing political turmoil in France, which has kept investors on edge. Additionally, cautious sentiment ahead of the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is offering some support to the US Dollar.
The Greenback saw some selling pressure on Thursday, as a positive risk sentiment and a larger-than-expected rise in weekly Jobless Claims weighed on the USD.
This came after a string of disappointing US data, including weaker-than-expected performance in the services sector and disappointing ADP employment figures, further adding to the selling pressure on the Dollar.
As a result, the EUR/USD pair remains in a tight range, waiting for fresh catalysts to drive its next move.
Impact of US Labor Market Data and Fed's Rate Cut Speculation on EUR/USD Pair
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar has been under some pressure as markets await the November Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, with expectations for a solid increase of 200,000 jobs.
This comes after a much lower reading of 12,000 jobs in October, which was heavily impacted by hurricanes and strikes. Despite this positive outlook, some concerns remain about the strength of the labor market due to other recent data.
On the data front, the US Unemployment Rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.2% in November, up from 4.1% in October. This increase is likely to keep hopes alive for a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in December.
In addition, data released on Thursday showed a rise in weekly Jobless Claims, which increased to 224,000 from the previous week's 215,000. This, along with a disappointing ADP employment report on Wednesday, has led to some doubts about the strength of the upcoming NFP data.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, however, remains cautious about cutting rates too quickly. He mentioned earlier this week that the US economy is stronger than the Fed had anticipated when it started easing rates.
Powell emphasized that any interest rate cuts will be gradual, signaling a more measured approach as the central bank assesses the economic outlook.
Therefore, the uncertainty around the US labor market and potential Fed rate cuts could weigh on the US Dollar, potentially supporting the EUR/USD pair. A weaker Dollar could boost the Euro, especially if the Nonfarm Payrolls report underperforms expectations.
Political Instability in France Weighs on Euro Recovery Prospects
On the other hand, French President Emmanuel Macron is facing growing challenges as his leadership is increasingly questioned. He is struggling to find a prime minister amid a deeply divided parliament, with far-right candidate Marine Le Pen gaining more support.
This political instability adds uncertainty to the country’s future direction. While markets have become less worried about France’s debt risk, the ongoing political tension creates a difficult environment for the Euro to recover significantly.
As a result, the overall outlook for the Euro remains cautious, and any substantial recovery seems unlikely in the near term.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at 1.05769, down 0.08%, showing mild bearish momentum as it approaches the key pivot point at 1.06053. Despite the slight decline, the pair remains supported by broader market sentiment favoring a weaker dollar amid cautious optimism surrounding global economic conditions.
On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 1.06545, followed by 1.06927 and 1.07292, marking key levels to confirm further bullish momentum.
Conversely, support is positioned at 1.05221, with additional cushions at 1.04738 and 1.04254, where traders may look for stabilization if selling pressure intensifies.
The 50-day EMA at 1.05306 provides robust near-term support, reinforcing the broader outlook. A decisive break below 1.06053 could trigger selling pressure, targeting support at 1.05221 and lower.
However, regaining ground above the pivot point may signal a recovery, with a breakout above 1.06545 opening the path to higher resistance zones.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – Dec 06, 2024
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Critical Levels: Pivot at 1.06053; resistance at 1.06545; support at 1.05221.
- RSI at 61: Signals caution with the pair nearing overbought conditions, hinting at possible consolidation.
- Technical Setup: Below 1.06053 indicates bearish momentum; above 1.06545 confirms bullish recovery.
EUR/USD is trading at 1.05769, down 0.08%, showing mild bearish momentum as it approaches the key pivot point at 1.06053. Despite the slight decline, the pair remains supported by broader market sentiment favoring a weaker dollar amid cautious optimism surrounding global economic conditions.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61 indicates a near-overbought zone, suggesting the potential for short-term consolidation.
On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 1.06545, followed by 1.06927 and 1.07292, marking key levels to confirm further bullish momentum.
Conversely, support is positioned at 1.05221, with additional cushions at 1.04738 and 1.04254, where traders may look for stabilization if selling pressure intensifies.
The 50-day EMA at 1.05306 provides robust near-term support, reinforcing the broader outlook. A decisive break below 1.06053 could trigger selling pressure, targeting support at 1.05221 and lower.
However, regaining ground above the pivot point may signal a recovery, with a breakout above 1.06545 opening the path to higher resistance zones.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.05909
Take Profit – 1.05238
Stop Loss – 1.06409
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$671/ -$500
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$67/ -$50
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Resistance Levels: $1.05973, $1.06321; a break above $1.05655 signals bullish momentum.
- Support Levels: $1.04622, $1.04255; watch for a break below $1.05280 for bearish moves.
- Indicators: RSI at 49 reflects indecision; 50 EMA at $1.05290 reinforces resistance.
EUR/USD is trading at $1.05132, up 0.08%, as it consolidates above its immediate support at $1.04622. The pair remains below its pivot point of $1.05655, signaling a cautious tone amid mixed market sentiment.
Immediate resistance lies at $1.05973, with further levels at $1.06321, while on the downside, support is seen at $1.04255, followed by $1.03930.
The RSI at 49 indicates neutral momentum, suggesting that the pair lacks a clear directional bias. The 50-day EMA at $1.05290 acts as a key resistance level, aligning with the broader downward trend.
A sustained break below $1.05280 could confirm bearish momentum, targeting $1.04622 or lower. Conversely, a recovery above $1.05655 would shift the focus toward higher resistance levels.
Technical indicators suggest that traders remain cautious, with the pair trading near pivotal levels. Entry points below $1.05280 provide an opportunity for bearish plays, with a target of $1.04622 and a stop-loss at $1.05667.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.05280
Take Profit – 1.05280
Stop Loss – 1.05667
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$580/ -$387
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$58/ -$38
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Dec 04, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During European trading on Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair is slightly down but holding steady around 1.0511. However, the currency pair is mostly moving sideways as traders await a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Michel Barnier, led by French far-right and left-wing parties.
This vote has raised concerns about political instability in France, which could weigh on the Euro (EUR) if the government collapses.
On the other hand, the US Dollar is also seeing a slight dip, providing the EUR/USD pair with some support. However, the outlook for the Euro is uncertain, as European Central Bank (ECB) officials hint at possible interest rate cuts. Traders expect a rate cut at the ECB’s meeting on December 12.
US Economic Data and Federal Reserve Outlook Impact Dollar Strength
On the US front, investors are closely watching the upcoming economic data, including the ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI for November.
Economists predict that the US private sector added 150,000 jobs in November, a significant drop from 233,000 in October.
The Services PMI, which measures activity in the services sector, is expected to decline slightly to 55.5 from 56.0, indicating slower growth in this sector.
These data points will influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on December 18.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there's a 74% chance the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to 4.25%-4.50%, and a 26% chance that rates will remain unchanged.
Investors will also be paying attention to the Fed’s Beige Book and comments from Chairman Jerome Powell for more clues on future rate actions.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar is showing a muted trend ahead of the economic releases. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is fluctuating around 106.30.
The outlook for the Dollar remains generally positive, especially after US President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS countries, a move that could further strengthen the Dollar's dominance.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at $1.05132, up 0.08%, as it consolidates above its immediate support at $1.04622. The pair remains below its pivot point of $1.05655, signaling a cautious tone amid mixed market sentiment.
Immediate resistance lies at $1.05973, with further levels at $1.06321, while on the downside, support is seen at $1.04255, followed by $1.03930.
The RSI at 49 indicates neutral momentum, suggesting that the pair lacks a clear directional bias. The 50-day EMA at $1.05290 acts as a key resistance level, aligning with the broader downward trend.
A sustained break below $1.05280 could confirm bearish momentum, targeting $1.04622 or lower. Conversely, a recovery above $1.05655 would shift the focus toward higher resistance levels.
Technical indicators suggest that traders remain cautious, with the pair trading near pivotal levels. Entry points below $1.05280 provide an opportunity for bearish plays, with a target of $1.04622 and a stop-loss at $1.05667.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – Dec 04, 2024
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Resistance Levels: $1.05657 (pivot), $1.05973, $1.06321.
- Support Levels: $1.04983, $1.04690, $1.04332.
- Momentum: RSI at 40 signals bearish momentum; the 50-day EMA at $1.05339 adds to overhead resistance.
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.05217, down 0.50%, reflecting sustained bearish momentum. The currency pair remains below its critical pivot point at $1.05657, signaling continued downside pressure.
Immediate resistance is seen at $1.05973, with further hurdles at $1.06321. These levels are pivotal, as a breakout above $1.05973 could signal a reversal of the bearish trend. However, the 50-day EMA at $1.05339 reinforces near-term resistance, limiting upward potential.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $1.04983, followed by deeper levels at $1.04690 and $1.04332. The RSI at 40 indicates bearish sentiment, though it is not yet in oversold territory, leaving room for further declines.
A sustained break below $1.04983 could accelerate selling pressure, targeting the $1.04690 support level, while failure to breach resistance suggests continued consolidation within the current range.
The broader technical outlook remains bearish as long as EUR/USD trades below $1.05657. Traders should monitor key support levels to gauge the extent of downside risk.
A decisive move above the pivot point could shift sentiment and attract bullish interest, but caution is warranted given the current downward trend.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.05297
Take Profit – 1.04988
Stop Loss – 1.05530
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$309/ -$233
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$30/ -$23