AUD/USD Price Analysis – Jan 23, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Despite new economic measures by Chinese authorities, the AUD/USD currency pair continues its downward trend, staying under pressure around the 0.6265 level, with an intra-day low of 0.6282.
However, the main reason behind this decline is the strength of the US dollar, which gained momentum after President Donald Trump issued a memorandum directing federal agencies to investigate and address the ongoing trade deficits.
Meanwhile, traders are increasingly expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates as early as next month, which has also contributed to the weakness of the AUD/USD pair.
AUD/USD Struggles as Strong US Dollar Gains Support from Economic Data and Fed Expectations
On the data front, the broad-based US dollar is holding steady above the 108.00 level, supported by President Donald Trump’s memorandum, which directs federal agencies to address ongoing trade deficits. This has strengthened the US dollar, putting pressure on the AUD/USD currency pair.
Traders are closely watching upcoming data, including Friday’s release of the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January. These indicators are expected to give further clues about the US economy’s direction.
The US dollar could continue to rise as traders expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in January.
Moreover, Trump’s policies could push inflation higher, possibly limiting the Fed to just one more rate cut. US retail sales rose 0.4% in December, weaker than expected, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.9% year-over-year.
Therefore, the strengthening US dollar, supported by President Trump's trade policies and economic data, is putting downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. Traders expect the Fed to keep interest rates steady, which further supports the US dollar, weakening the Australian currency.
AUD/USD Under Pressure Amid US-China Tensions and Weaker Australian Markets
On the AUD front, the Australian markets are feeling the pressure from global developments, particularly the growing tension between the US and China. The US President, Donald Trump, announced a 10% tariff on Chinese imports starting February 1, citing concerns over fentanyl shipments.
In response, Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang warned that trade wars have no winners, highlighting the potential risks for both countries. These developments are concerning for Australia, given its strong trade ties with China, making the Australian economy sensitive to changes in China's economic policies.
Meanwhile, Chinese authorities have taken steps to stabilize their stock markets, such as allowing pension funds to invest more in domestic equities and introducing a pilot scheme for insurers to purchase stocks in 2025.
The People's Bank of China has also indicated that they will take measures to support the market when needed.
Despite these efforts, the S&P/ASX 200 Index fell below 8,400, primarily due to a decline in mining stocks, as weaker commodity prices impacted the sector.
This drop in Australian stocks occurred even though Wall Street posted strong gains. Investors are cautious as they await the potential impacts of President Trump's policy changes, keeping pressure on the AUD/USD currency pair.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) is trading at $0.62713, experiencing a minor decline of 0.02% as it hovers around a critical pivot point at $0.62435. The currency pair has shown resilience above this level, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.62422 providing key short-term support.
A break above immediate resistance at $0.62943 could pave the way for further gains, targeting subsequent resistance levels at $0.63342 and $0.63763, where selling pressure may intensify.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $0.62147, with additional safety nets at $0.61865 and $0.61452. A decisive move below these levels could signal a shift in market sentiment, exposing the pair to further downside risk.
The prevailing market structure suggests cautious optimism, with the pair maintaining a slightly bullish bias above the pivot, supported by steady buying interest.
Technical indicators highlight a consolidation phase, with the 50-day EMA acting as dynamic support. However, sustained upward momentum is required to confirm a breakout beyond the current range.
Market participants are closely watching upcoming economic data releases and broader risk sentiment to gauge future price action.
Traders may consider entering long positions above $0.62570, targeting $0.63210, while placing a stop loss at $0.62142 to manage downside risks.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD remains above the pivot point of $0.62435, signaling short-term bullish potential.
- Resistance at $0.62943 is a crucial barrier; a break above could drive further gains.
- The 50-day EMA at $0.62422 offers strong support, underpinning current price stability.
The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) is trading at $0.62713, experiencing a minor decline of 0.02% as it hovers around a critical pivot point at $0.62435. The currency pair has shown resilience above this level, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.62422 providing key short-term support.
A break above immediate resistance at $0.62943 could pave the way for further gains, targeting subsequent resistance levels at $0.63342 and $0.63763, where selling pressure may intensify.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $0.62147, with additional safety nets at $0.61865 and $0.61452. A decisive move below these levels could signal a shift in market sentiment, exposing the pair to further downside risk.
The prevailing market structure suggests cautious optimism, with the pair maintaining a slightly bullish bias above the pivot, supported by steady buying interest.
Technical indicators highlight a consolidation phase, with the 50-day EMA acting as dynamic support. However, sustained upward momentum is required to confirm a breakout beyond the current range.
Market participants are closely watching upcoming economic data releases and broader risk sentiment to gauge future price action.
Traders may consider entering long positions above $0.62570, targeting $0.63210, while placing a stop loss at $0.62142 to manage downside risks.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.62570
Take Profit – 0.63210
Stop Loss – 0.62142
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$640/ -$428
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$64/ -$42
AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
AUD/USD is under pressure below the pivot point of $0.62450, signaling potential downside risks.
The 50-day EMA at $0.61968 offers critical support for a possible rebound.
Resistance levels at $0.62898 and above may cap any bullish attempts in the short term.
The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at $0.62411, down 0.51%, as the Australian dollar struggles to hold ground amid a stronger U.S. dollar and mixed risk sentiment.
The pair is hovering just below its pivot point at $0.62450, which serves as a key level for short-term market direction.
A decisive move above this threshold could pave the way for a bullish reversal, targeting immediate resistance at $0.62898, with further upside potential at $0.63274 and $0.63591.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $0.61964, with subsequent levels at $0.61647 and $0.61362, which could act as critical areas to watch in case of further selling pressure.
The 50-day EMA at $0.61968 is providing some underlying support, indicating that bulls may attempt to regain control if the price remains above this level.
From a technical perspective, the recent decline below the pivot point suggests a cautious outlook, with momentum indicators pointing to continued weakness.
A break below the immediate support at $0.61964 could reinforce the bearish trend, potentially driving the pair toward lower support zones.
Conversely, a sustained push above $0.62450 could shift sentiment, allowing buyers to challenge key resistance levels.
In conclusion, a buying opportunity exists above $0.62308, targeting a move toward $0.63006, while a stop-loss at $0.61869 helps mitigate downside risk in case of continued bearish momentum.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.62308
Take Profit – 0.63006
Stop Loss – 0.61869
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$698/ -$439
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$69/ -$43
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Jan 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair struggled to halt its downward momentum, hovering around the 0.6231 level and hitting an intra-day low of 0.6209.
This continued decline could be attributed to heightened risk aversion as market participants closely monitor US President Donald Trump’s economic policies, particularly his stance on tariffs.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar against six major currencies, surged to approximately 108.50. Hence, this was seen as as anothr key factor that put pressure on AUD/USD pair.
AUD/USD Pressure Amid Trade Tensions and RBA Rate Cut Expectations
On the AUD front, the AUD/USD pair remains subdued after US President Donald Trump made a remark about potentially placing tariffs on China if a TikTok deal is reached but not approved by China.
This statement came shortly after Trump signed an executive order delaying the TikTok ban by 75 days.
Since Australia has strong trade ties with China, any changes in China’s economy can directly impact Australian markets. This has put pressure on the Australian dollar, causing it to stay under pressure against the US dollar.
The Australian stock market, however, saw some positive movement, with the S&P/ASX 200 Index climbing to nearly 8,400, its highest level in six weeks.
This rally followed Trump’s second-term inauguration, as markets reacted positively to his decision not to impose new tariffs.
Despite this optimism in the equity market, the Australian dollar is struggling, as traders remain cautious about potential economic developments related to trade with China.
Looking ahead, traders are increasingly expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates, possibly as soon as next month.
This expectation is driven by the latest inflation data, which shows core inflation has fallen to its lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2021.
Moving ahead, the investors attention is now turning to Australia’s upcoming quarterly inflation report. This report could offer more clues about the future direction of interest rates and provide further insights into the outlook for the AUD/USD pair.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Critical Pivot Point: AUD/USD trades below $0.62071, signaling bearish momentum.
- Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance lies at $0.62455, followed by $0.62898 and $0.63274.
- EMA Alignment: The 50-day EMA at $0.62045 reinforces bearish sentiment below the pivot point.
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.62007, down 0.41% on the day, reflecting persistent bearish pressure in the market. The pair hovers just below the pivot point at $0.62071, a critical threshold for determining short-term sentiment.
Immediate resistance is seen at $0.62455, with higher targets at $0.62898 and $0.63274. On the downside, immediate support lies at $0.61781, followed by $0.61488 and deeper support at $0.61208.
The 50-day EMA at $0.62045 aligns closely with the pivot point, reinforcing the significance of the $0.62071 level. The downward trend is evident as the price remains below the 50 EMA, signaling that sellers dominate the market.
Short-term momentum indicates a potential move toward the $0.61488 support level if the pair fails to reclaim $0.62071.
Traders should monitor the $0.62071 pivot closely. A sustained break below this level would likely accelerate selling pressure, targeting $0.61781 initially, with an extended decline toward $0.61488.
Conversely, a move above $0.62455 could signal a reversal and test higher resistance levels, though the broader outlook remains bearish.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.62081
Take Profit – 0.61480
Stop Loss – 0.62409
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$601/ -$328
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$60/ -$32
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Jan 16, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair struggled to keep up its winning streak, dipping to around the 0.6215 level and even touching an intra-day low of 0.6196.
This decline came after Australia’s employment report showed a rise in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate to 4.0% in December, up from 3.9% in November.
The data, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), met market expectations but signaled a slight cooling in the labor market, which weighed on the Aussie Dollar.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar remained under pressure, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) trading near 109.00. The Greenback extended its losses as US inflation data for December came in cooler than expected, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates twice this year. These factors combined to keep AUD/USD under selling pressure during the session.
Mixed Employment Data and Weak Consumer Confidence Weigh on AUD/USD
On the data front, Australia’s unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.0% in December, up from 3.9% in November, as reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
However, employment saw a strong increase, adding 56,300 jobs in December, much higher than the expected 15,000. This marked a significant improvement from November’s revised figure of 28,200.
The mixed data showed that while more people found jobs, unemployment also rose due to a larger number of people actively seeking work.
Bjorn Jarvis, head of labor statistics at the ABS, highlighted some important trends. The employment-to-population ratio reached a record high of 64.5%, which is 0.5% higher than a year ago and 2.3% above pre-COVID-19 levels.
He noted that the rise in both employment and unemployment pushed the participation rate higher, indicating more Australians are either working or looking for jobs. This suggests a robust but evolving labor market.
Meanwhile, consumer sentiment remained weak, with the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index dropping by 0.7% to 92.1 points, reflecting ongoing pessimism about the economy.
The dip in confidence has raised concerns about interest rate decisions, with markets now expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower its cash rate from 4.35% by 25 basis points in February and potentially a full rate cut by April.
The mixed Australian employment data and weak consumer confidence weighed on the AUD/USD pair, as rising unemployment and pessimism about the economy raised concerns over rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia, pushing the Aussie Dollar lower against the US Dollar.
Weaker US Inflation Data Fuels Expectations of Rate Cuts, Impacting AUD/USD Pair
On the US front, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against six major currencies, is trading near 109.00. The US Dollar has been weakening due to lower-than-expected US inflation data for December.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-over-year, up from 2.7% in November. On a monthly basis, CPI increased by 0.4%, slightly higher than the 0.3% in November.
This cooling inflation has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates twice this year.
The US Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 3.2% annually, which was below November’s figure and analysts’ expectations of 3.3%.
On a monthly basis, core CPI grew by 0.2%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) also showed slower growth, rising by just 0.2% month-over-month in December, below the 0.3% forecast, signaling easing inflationary pressures.
Meanwhile, Scott Bessent, a Treasury Secretary nominee, stressed the importance of keeping the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency to ensure economic stability.
According to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book survey, economic activity grew moderately in late 2023, with strong consumer spending during the holiday season.
However, manufacturing slowed slightly due to inventory build-up, and policymakers, including Michelle Bowman, are managing expectations of slower interest rate cuts.
Therefore, the weaker-than-expected US inflation data and cooling economic pressures suggest the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates, which likely weakened the US Dollar. As a result, the AUD/USD pair could see upward movement, benefiting the Australian Dollar.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.62007, down 0.41% on the day, reflecting persistent bearish pressure in the market. The pair hovers just below the pivot point at $0.62071, a critical threshold for determining short-term sentiment.
Immediate resistance is seen at $0.62455, with higher targets at $0.62898 and $0.63274. On the downside, immediate support lies at $0.61781, followed by $0.61488 and deeper support at $0.61208.
The 50-day EMA at $0.62045 aligns closely with the pivot point, reinforcing the significance of the $0.62071 level. The downward trend is evident as the price remains below the 50 EMA, signaling that sellers dominate the market.
Short-term momentum indicates a potential move toward the $0.61488 support level if the pair fails to reclaim $0.62071.
Traders should monitor the $0.62071 pivot closely. A sustained break below this level would likely accelerate selling pressure, targeting $0.61781 initially, with an extended decline toward $0.61488.
Conversely, a move above $0.62455 could signal a reversal and test higher resistance levels, though the broader outlook remains bearish.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish Bias Below $0.62071: AUD/USD faces selling pressure unless it breaks above this pivot.
- Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance lies at $0.62615, with further hurdles at $0.62898 and $0.63274.
- Support Levels: Key support is at $0.61781, with deeper levels at $0.61488 and $0.61208 offering critical downside protection.
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.61918, up 0.26%, as the Australian Dollar shows slight recovery amid a stabilizing U.S. Dollar. The price remains below the pivot point at $0.62071, maintaining a bearish tone despite the recent uptick.
Immediate resistance is located at $0.62615, with higher levels at $0.62898 and $0.63274. On the downside, support stands at $0.61781, with deeper thresholds at $0.61488 and $0.61208.
The 50-day EMA at $0.62069 aligns closely with the pivot point, reinforcing its significance as a key decision level. A break above $0.62071 may shift sentiment toward bullishness, potentially targeting the immediate resistance zone.
Conversely, failure to hold above this pivot point could trigger renewed selling pressure, targeting the $0.61480 region.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests neutral momentum, indicating that the market could go either way depending on the break of key levels.
While the near-term outlook leans bearish, a decisive break above $0.62071 would challenge the prevailing sentiment.
Traders should monitor U.S. economic data and commodity trends, as these remain critical drivers for the Australian Dollar’s trajectory.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.62071
Take Profit – 0.61480
Stop Loss – 0.62409
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$591/ -$338
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$59/ -$33
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Jan 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair has rebounded strongly extending gains for the second consecutive day and recovering from 0.6131, its lowest level since April 2020.
This resurgence is fueled by robust commodity prices and improved global market sentiment, which supported risk-sensitive assets like the AUD.
However, economic challenges persist in Australia. The Westpac Consumer Confidence Index fell for the second month in a row, dropping 0.7% in January to 92.1 points, signaling consumer pessimism.
Meanwhile, markets are factoring in a 75% probability of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in February, keeping the AUD/USD pair under pressure.
Traders are eyeing the upcoming Australian employment data, which could provide further insights into the RBA’s policy trajectory.
US Dollar Strength and Its Impact on the Pair
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar continues to exert pressure on the AUD/USD pair, supported by strong economic data and a hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains near 109.60, its highest level since November 2022, reflecting sustained demand for the greenback.
On the data front, the December’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data exceeded expectations, showing a robust 256,000 job additions, compared to forecasts of 160,000.
This robust labor market data has pushed US Treasury yields higher, with the 2-year yield at 4.42% and the 10-year yield at 4.80%.
Federal Reserve policymakers, including Kansas Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, have emphasized the need for a measured approach to rate cuts in 2025, reinforcing the USD’s strength.
Additionally, the upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) report is expected to provide further clarity on inflation trends, which could influence the Fed’s rate decisions and the trajectory of the AUD/USD pair.
China's Economic Stimulus and Its Ripple Effect on AUD/USD Amid Australia's Domestic Challenges
On the other hand, China’s economic developments remain a critical factor influencing the AUD, given Australia’s close trade ties with its largest trading partner.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) recently announced measures to support the Chinese Yuan, including raising the macro-prudential adjustment parameter for cross-border financing.
These measures are intended to maintain ample liquidity and stabilize China’s financial markets, indirectly benefiting the AUD through strengthened demand for Australian exports.
PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng reaffirmed China’s commitment to bolstering the global economy, highlighting plans to utilize fiscal and monetary tools to sustain growth.
This optimism has provided additional support for the AUD/USD pair, as improved Chinese economic conditions typically lead to increased demand for Australian commodities.
Domestically, Australia’s TD-MI Inflation Gauge surged by 0.6% month-over-month in December, the largest monthly increase since 2023, complicating the RBA’s policy outlook.
Despite these challenges, China’s stimulus measures offer some relief for the AUD, underscoring the intertwined economic relationship between the two nations.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.61918, up 0.26%, as the Australian Dollar shows slight recovery amid a stabilizing U.S. Dollar. The price remains below the pivot point at $0.62071, maintaining a bearish tone despite the recent uptick.
Immediate resistance is located at $0.62615, with higher levels at $0.62898 and $0.63274. On the downside, support stands at $0.61781, with deeper thresholds at $0.61488 and $0.61208.
The 50-day EMA at $0.62069 aligns closely with the pivot point, reinforcing its significance as a key decision level. A break above $0.62071 may shift sentiment toward bullishness, potentially targeting the immediate resistance zone.
Conversely, failure to hold above this pivot point could trigger renewed selling pressure, targeting the $0.61480 region.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests neutral momentum, indicating that the market could go either way depending on the break of key levels.
While the near-term outlook leans bearish, a decisive break above $0.62071 would challenge the prevailing sentiment.
Traders should monitor U.S. economic data and commodity trends, as these remain critical drivers for the Australian Dollar’s trajectory.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD struggles below the $0.62190 pivot, testing $0.61781 support.
- 50 EMA at $0.62228 reinforces resistance, keeping the trend bearish.
- RSI indicates weak momentum; further declines likely if $0.62190 breaks.
AUD/USD is trading at $0.61964, down 0.28%, as bearish sentiment dominates amid global risk-off conditions. The pair is struggling to maintain ground above its pivot point at $0.62190, signaling potential downside risks.
The 50 EMA at $0.62228 has turned into a near-term resistance level, further weighing on the currency pair. The RSI is hovering in bearish territory, reflecting subdued momentum.
Immediate resistance is located at $0.62730, followed by $0.63058 and $0.63393, marking levels to watch for any bullish recovery.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $0.61781, with stronger support at $0.61488 and $0.61208. A sustained move below the pivot point could trigger further selling pressure, targeting the $0.61781 level initially, followed by $0.61530.
Traders considering short positions might look to enter below $0.62172, targeting $0.61530 with a stop-loss at $0.62523.
While the pair remains bearish in the short term, a break above $0.62190 and the 50 EMA could signal a reversal, paving the way for a test of $0.62730.
However, the broader trend remains cautious as the pair reacts to key technical and macroeconomic drivers.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.62172
Take Profit – 0.61530
Stop Loss – 0.62523
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$642/ -$351
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$64/ -$35
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Jan 09, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair continued its losing streak, staying under pressure around the 0.6193 level.
The main reason for its downward rally can be traced to disappointing domestic economic data and concerns about China’s economic outlook.
China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, released on Thursday, showed that inflation is facing deflationary risks. In December, the annual inflation only rose by 0.1%, slightly lower than November's 0.2% increase, which aligned with market expectations.
Besides this, traders are awaiting Friday’s US Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report, as it may provide further direction for US Federal Reserve policy.
The US Dollar (USD) has been supported by hawkish signals from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes and growing concerns over potential tariff plans under the incoming Trump administration.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Strong Economic Data, While Australian Dollar Faces Pressure from Soft Inflation
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been holding strong, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) staying near the 109.00 level.
The Greenback is benefiting from hawkish signals in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) meeting minutes, as well as concerns over tariff plans from the incoming Trump administration. This strength in the dollar is also supported by rising US Treasury bond yields.
Moreover, the US labor market data provided positive signals. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 201,000, better than the expected 218,000. Meanwhile, the ADP Employment report showed a gain of 122K jobs in December, although this was below market expectations of 140K.
The ISM Services PMI also showed strong growth, rising to 54.1 from 52.1, beating the 53.3 forecast. The Prices Paid Index, a key inflation measure, also increased, indicating that inflationary pressures remain present.
Therefore, the strong US Dollar, supported by positive economic data and rising bond yields, puts pressure on the AUD/USD pair, likely causing the Australian Dollar to weaken further against the Greenback.
In contrast, the Australian Dollar (AUD) is facing challenges due to softer inflation data. Australia's core inflation, measured by the trimmed mean, fell to 3.2% annually from 3.5%, bringing it closer to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range of 2-3%. This has led traders to expect a potential interest rate cut from the RBA.
Australia's CPI rose 2.3% year-over-year in November, slightly above expectations, but it remains within the RBA’s target range. Despite this, there is a growing expectation of a rate cut in the coming months.
Hence, the softer inflation data and expectations of an interest rate cut by the RBA are likely to weigh on the Australian Dollar, potentially leading to further weakness in the AUD/USD pair.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is trading at $0.61964, down 0.28%, as bearish sentiment dominates amid global risk-off conditions. The pair is struggling to maintain ground above its pivot point at $0.62190, signaling potential downside risks.
The 50 EMA at $0.62228 has turned into a near-term resistance level, further weighing on the currency pair. The RSI is hovering in bearish territory, reflecting subdued momentum.
Immediate resistance is located at $0.62730, followed by $0.63058 and $0.63393, marking levels to watch for any bullish recovery.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $0.61781, with stronger support at $0.61488 and $0.61208. A sustained move below the pivot point could trigger further selling pressure, targeting the $0.61781 level initially, followed by $0.61530.
Traders considering short positions might look to enter below $0.62172, targeting $0.61530 with a stop-loss at $0.62523.
While the pair remains bearish in the short term, a break above $0.62190 and the 50 EMA could signal a reversal, paving the way for a test of $0.62730.
However, the broader trend remains cautious as the pair reacts to key technical and macroeconomic drivers.
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