Daily Price Outlook

Despite the bullish trend in the US dollar and improved yields on US Treasury bonds, the AUD/USD currency pair has maintain its upward momentum, remaining well-bid around the $0.6715 level. However, this upward trajectory can be attributed to the recent release of the RBA meeting minutes. Furthermore, Australia's strong employment results and increasing incomes serve as indicators of economic resilience, offering some further support to the Australian Dollar and contributes to the AUD/USD pair gains.

Positive Outlook from RBA and Improved Economic Indicators

Australia's Reserve Bank (RBA) is hopeful about inflation getting better and wants it to keep going up. The RBA thinks it's crucial to wait for more information to understand the risks. They want to find the right balance between the possibility of inflation staying high for a long time and the risk of a slowdown in demand. According to RBA staff, they expect inflation to reach the upper range by 2025.

In economic news, Judo Bank's Composite PMI is better at 47.4, Manufacturing PMI is a bit higher at 47.8, and Services PMI increased to 47.6. Australia's Consumer Inflation Expectations for December went down to 4.5% from 4.9%. On a good note, Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell thinks China will remove tariffs on Australian wine, showing improved relations as China already lifted restrictions on most Australian exports.

Therefore, the positive outlook from Australia's Reserve Bank and improved economic indicators may strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD). Additionally, the potential resolution of trade issues with China could positively impact the AUD/USD pair, leading to potential upward movement.

Potential Impact of US Economic Developments on AUD/USD Pair

The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates the same at 5.5% in December, just as people expected. However, there's talk about the possibility of lowering rates in the March meeting. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is open to the idea, and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic thinks a rate cut might happen in Q3 2024, depending on how inflation goes.

On the data front, US S&P Global Services PMI went up to 51.3, but Manufacturing PMI dipped to 48.2. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is holding steady, waiting for news from the US economy. It might get a boost from better yields on US Treasury bonds. Investors are keeping an eye on Tuesday's Building Permits and Housing Starts in the US. On Wednesday, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) will reveal its Interest Rate Decision.

However, New York Fed President John Williams disagrees with the idea of a March rate cut. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly says even with three rate cuts next year, the Fed will keep a somewhat restrictive stance. Deciding when policy changes might happen in the coming year is too early, according to Daly, as there's ongoing work, and it's not just about getting inflation to 2%.

Therefore, the potential for rate cuts and mixed economic indicators in the US may create uncertainty, impacting the AUD/USD pair. Positive developments, like improved US Treasury yields, could boost the US Dollar, potentially weakening the Australian Dollar against the USD.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

As of December 19, the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar (AUD/USD) presents an intriguing scenario in the foreign exchange market. The pair is witnessing a slight upturn, registering a 0.25% increase, with the current price hovering around 0.67226. This movement indicates a tentative bullish sentiment in the short-term outlook.

The technical landscape offers several key levels that traders are closely monitoring. The pivot point is established at 0.6587, serving as a baseline for the pair's movement. In terms of resistance, AUD/USD faces immediate challenges at 0.6658, with further resistance points at 0.6775 and 0.6846. Conversely, the support levels are positioned at 0.6470, 0.6399, and 0.6326, offering potential cushions for any downward trends.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 62, hovering above the neutral 50 mark, indicating a bullish market sentiment. This suggests that investors are showing a preference for the Australian Dollar over the US Dollar. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays a reading of -0.00027 with a signal line at 0, implying a potential for both upward and downward momentum, adding a layer of uncertainty to the market's direction.

Notably, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for AUD/USD stands at 0.6712. The pair trading slightly above this level suggests a short-term bullish trend, aligning with the overall market sentiment. Furthermore, the observed upward channel pattern supports the AUD/USD pair, indicating a continuation of the bullish momentum.

In conclusion, the AUD/USD pair displays a bullish trend above the 0.66822 level. The short-term forecast anticipates testing higher resistance levels in the coming days, especially if it sustains above the pivotal EMA and resistance points. However, traders should remain vigilant for any shifts in these technical indicators, which could signal a change in the market's direction.

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Daily Price Outlook

- AUD/USD sees a modest rise to 0.67226, indicating a bullish outlook.

- Key resistance and support levels are closely watched, with RSI at 62 suggesting bullish sentiment.

- The upward channel pattern and position above 50 EMA point to potential gains in the near term.

As of December 19, the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar (AUD/USD) presents an intriguing scenario in the foreign exchange market. The pair is witnessing a slight upturn, registering a 0.25% increase, with the current price hovering around 0.67226. This movement indicates a tentative bullish sentiment in the short-term outlook.

The technical landscape offers several key levels that traders are closely monitoring. The pivot point is established at 0.6587, serving as a baseline for the pair's movement. In terms of resistance, AUD/USD faces immediate challenges at 0.6658, with further resistance points at 0.6775 and 0.6846. Conversely, the support levels are positioned at 0.6470, 0.6399, and 0.6326, offering potential cushions for any downward trends.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 62, hovering above the neutral 50 mark, indicating a bullish market sentiment. This suggests that investors are showing a preference for the Australian Dollar over the US Dollar. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays a reading of -0.00027 with a signal line at 0, implying a potential for both upward and downward momentum, adding a layer of uncertainty to the market's direction.

Notably, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for AUD/USD stands at 0.6712. The pair trading slightly above this level suggests a short-term bullish trend, aligning with the overall market sentiment. Furthermore, the observed upward channel pattern supports the AUD/USD pair, indicating a continuation of the bullish momentum.

In conclusion, the AUD/USD pair displays a bullish trend above the 0.66822 level. The short-term forecast anticipates testing higher resistance levels in the coming days, especially if it sustains above the pivotal EMA and resistance points. However, traders should remain vigilant for any shifts in these technical indicators, which could signal a change in the market's direction.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Above 0.66930

Take Profit – 0.67482

Stop Loss – 0.66565

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$552/ -$365

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$55/ -$36

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair has maintained its bullish momentum, surging to four-month highs as the US Dollar weakens in response to a dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The pair has shown a robust performance against the US Dollar, reaching its highest levels in four months. This upward trend has continued for two consecutive days, driven by favorable employment data from Australia and a depreciation of the US Dollar.

Federal Reserve's Dovish Stance and Rate Outlook Propel Australian Dollar Against US Dollar

It is noteworthy that the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates steady at 5.5% and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's dovish stance have been key drivers behind the surge in the Australian Dollar. Powell abstained from declaring victory over inflation and hinted at a more accommodative monetary policy. This move led to a decrease in Treasury bond yields. As a result, investors are currently anticipating three rate cuts in 2024, further contributing to the weakening of the US Dollar.

Therefore, the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and Chair Powell's dovish stance boosted the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar, with decreased Treasury yields and anticipated rate cuts in 2024, contributing to USD weakness.

Robust Australian Economic Indicators Drive Positive Outlook for AUD/USD Pair

Moreover, Australia's economic indicators significantly bolstered the Australian Dollar. Consumer Inflation Expectations for December eased to 4.5%, below the prior 4.9%, alleviating some inflation concerns. Although Employment Change data for November surpassed expectations, surging to 61.5K against the projected 11.0K, the Unemployment Rate in Australia increased to 3.9% from the previous 3.7%.

The Australian Dollar's upward trajectory was further supported by positive market sentiment and consumer confidence. ANZ-Roy Morgan's Australian Consumer Confidence weekly survey rose to 80.8 from the previous week's 76.4, while Westpac Consumer Confidence for December showed improvement at 2.7% from the previous decline of 2.6%. These indicators reflect a positive outlook for the Australian economy.

Hence, Australia's strong economic indicators, including lower inflation expectations, robust employment growth, and improved consumer confidence, propelled the Australian Dollar. This positive outlook contributes to the upward momentum of the AUD/USD pair.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) presents a bullish narrative as it rides within an upward channel, signifying a robust buying trend. The currency pair is currently supported by the formation of bullish engulfing candles over the $0.6590 mark, indicating a strong uptrend momentum and suggesting an accumulation phase among traders.

A pivotal moment is on the horizon for AUD/USD, as it approaches the critical $0.6690 level. Should it break above this threshold, it could potentially signal a double top breakout, opening a path towards the $0.6750 level or further resistance levels. Such a breakout would confirm the continuation of the current bullish trend, providing traders with significant optimism regarding the pair's trajectory.

The upward channel's support, coupled with the bullish engulfing pattern, underpins a firm uptrend in AUD/USD. Observing the currency pair's ability to sustain above these levels will be critical for traders monitoring for continuation or potential reversals.

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Daily Price Outlook

- AUD/USD's upward channel and bullish engulfing candles above $0.6590 indicate a strong uptrend.

- A potential double top breakout at $0.6690 could propel the pair towards the $0.6750 region.

- Sustained trading within the upward channel bolsters the case for further bullish momentum.

The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) presents a bullish narrative as it rides within an upward channel, signifying a robust buying trend. The currency pair is currently supported by the formation of bullish engulfing candles over the $0.6590 mark, indicating a strong uptrend momentum and suggesting an accumulation phase among traders.

A pivotal moment is on the horizon for AUD/USD, as it approaches the critical $0.6690 level. Should it break above this threshold, it could potentially signal a double top breakout, opening a path towards the $0.6750 level or further resistance levels. Such a breakout would confirm the continuation of the current bullish trend, providing traders with significant optimism regarding the pair's trajectory.

The upward channel's support, coupled with the bullish engulfing pattern, underpins a firm uptrend in AUD/USD. Observing the currency pair's ability to sustain above these levels will be critical for traders monitoring for continuation or potential reversals.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Limit 0.67491

Take Profit – 0.66712

Stop Loss – 0.67998

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$779/ -$507

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$77/ -$50

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend and has shown strength. However, this positive momentum can be attributed to the hawkish sentiment expressed by RBA Governor Michele Bullock. In her recent statements, Australia's chief policymaker, Bullock, emphasized the Reserve Bank of Australia's commitment to fostering a resilient labor market in the country. This stance has provided an additional boost to the AUD/USD pair.

Investors are closely monitoring the forthcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for November, scheduled for Tuesday, as they could significantly impact the trajectory of the pair. Market expectations indicate a potential easing of the annual US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 3.1%, down slightly from the previous 3.2%, accompanied by a projected 0.1% increase in the monthly inflation figure. The US Core CPI is anticipated to maintain its stability at 4.0%. These figures are expected to play a pivotal role in shaping investor sentiment.

Consumer Confidence, RBA Decision, and China's Impact on the Australian Dollar

On the Australian front, the ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence weekly survey rose to 80.8, indicating increased optimism. Additionally, Westpac Consumer Confidence for December improved by 2.7% from the previous decline of 2.6%, reflecting a positive economic outlook.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently left interest rates unchanged at the final meeting for the year. Governor Michele Bullock expressed confidence, emphasizing a cautious approach and the RBA's commitment to maintaining employment gains.

Moreover, China has recently removed restrictions on meat imports from Australia, a development that could potentially enhance overall sentiment. However, worries regarding deflationary pressures in China have triggered a selling trend for the Australian Dollar.

US Dollar Strength and FOMC Meeting:

In contrast to this, the US Dollar Index is holding its strength, buoyed by resilient US Treasury yields and robust employment figures in the United States. This strength in the Greenback is exerting downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. A stronger US Dollar typically diminishes investor appetites and serves as a headwind for the pair.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins its two-day monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. While expectations lean towards no change in interest rates, investors will closely analyze the statement for signals about potential rate adjustments in the coming year.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair, as of December 12, exhibits a notable upturn in the Forex market. Currently priced at 0.65902, the pair has experienced a 0.35% rise within a 24-hour period. Analyzing the 4-hour chart provides a clearer perspective on its short-term movements.

In terms of key price levels, the immediate resistance for the AUD/USD pair is at 0.6503. Surpassing this level could pave the way to the next resistance at 0.6599, followed by a further potential ceiling at 0.6668. On the flip side, support levels are observed at 0.6763, 0.6434, and 0.6340. These levels are crucial as they will dictate the pair's ability to maintain its current momentum or face a potential retracement.

From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 53, indicating a slightly bullish sentiment in the market. This level suggests that the currency pair is neither overbought nor oversold, but leans towards a bullish bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of 0.00014 with a signal line at -0.00055. The MACD line's position above the signal line hints at a potential upward momentum for the AUD/USD pair, supporting the bullish sentiment indicated by the RSI.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the pair is currently at 0.6574. Given that the pair's price is hovering above the 50 EMA, it signifies a short-term bullish trend. Furthermore, the chart reveals an upward trendline providing support around 0.6550. A consistent close above this level could trigger further buying interest in the Australian Dollar.

In conclusion, the overall trend for the AUD/USD pair appears bullish, particularly if it maintains above the 0.6550 level. In the short term, we can expect the pair to potentially test higher resistance levels, particularly 0.6599, if the bullish momentum persists.

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Daily Price Outlook

- The AUD/USD pair shows a bullish trend, currently trading at 0.65902 with a 0.35% rise, facing immediate resistance at 0.6503.

- Technical indicators like RSI at 53 and MACD above its signal line suggest a potential upward momentum.

- Key support at 0.6550 and resistance levels up to 0.6668 are pivotal for determining the pair's short-term direction.

The AUD/USD pair, as of December 12, exhibits a notable upturn in the Forex market. Currently priced at 0.65902, the pair has experienced a 0.35% rise within a 24-hour period. Analyzing the 4-hour chart provides a clearer perspective on its short-term movements.

In terms of key price levels, the immediate resistance for the AUD/USD pair is at 0.6503. Surpassing this level could pave the way to the next resistance at 0.6599, followed by a further potential ceiling at 0.6668. On the flip side, support levels are observed at 0.6763, 0.6434, and 0.6340. These levels are crucial as they will dictate the pair's ability to maintain its current momentum or face a potential retracement.

From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 53, indicating a slightly bullish sentiment in the market. This level suggests that the currency pair is neither overbought nor oversold, but leans towards a bullish bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of 0.00014 with a signal line at -0.00055. The MACD line's position above the signal line hints at a potential upward momentum for the AUD/USD pair, supporting the bullish sentiment indicated by the RSI.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the pair is currently at 0.6574. Given that the pair's price is hovering above the 50 EMA, it signifies a short-term bullish trend. Furthermore, the chart reveals an upward trendline providing support around 0.6550. A consistent close above this level could trigger further buying interest in the Australian Dollar.

In conclusion, the overall trend for the AUD/USD pair appears bullish, particularly if it maintains above the 0.6550 level. In the short term, we can expect the pair to potentially test higher resistance levels, particularly 0.6599, if the bullish momentum persists.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Above 0.65812

Take Profit – 0.66494

Stop Loss – 0.65419

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$682/ -$393

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$68/ -$39

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair failed to stop its declining streak and remained under some selling pressure near 0.6530 for the fourth successive day on Thursday. However, the reason for its downward trend could be associated with China’s economic woes and RBA rate cut bets, which weigh on the Aussie and contribute to the losses in the AUD/USD pair. In contrast to this, the dovish Fed expectations might cap any further gains in the US dollar and lend some support to the AUD/USD currency pair.

China's Trade Shifts, Moody's Downgrade, and RBA Rate Cut Outlook Affect Australian Dollar (AUD)

It's worth noting that China's trade surplus surged to $68.39 billion in November, up from the previous $56.53 billion. The report revealed a surprising 0.5% increase in exports but, worryingly, a significant 0.6% drop in imports, signaling concerns about weak domestic demand. In the meantime, Moody's downgraded China's credit outlook, affecting state-owned firms and banks, and dampening investor interest in riskier assets.

On top of this, Australia's trade data was not impressive, and growing expectations of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut around August/September 2024 are weighing on the Australian Dollar and contributing to the AUDUSD currency pair.

USD Strength, Cautious Sentiment, and Fed Expectations Impacting AUD/USD Pair

Moreover, the risk-off market mood is helping the safe-haven US Dollar to maintain its recent strength, reaching a two-week peak on Wednesday. This is putting some pressure on the AUD/USD pair. However, expectations of a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed) are capping further USD gains and providing a support to the Aussie.

Investors believe the Fed won't tighten its policies further and are now leaning towards a 25 bps rate cut in the upcoming March meeting. This shift is backed by recent US data hinting at a potential easing in the historically tight job market.

Looking ahead, investors will be closely monitoring the release of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data from the US. Furthermore, attention will be on the highly anticipated US monthly employment details, commonly referred to as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, scheduled for Friday.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

On December 7, the Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) experienced a decline, registering a 0.27% decrease to 0.65321. The currency pair, in the broader scope of the Forex market, is situated at a crucial juncture, hovering around the pivot point of $0.6530. The AUD/USD faces immediate resistance at $0.6602, followed by higher barriers at $0.6639 and $0.6713. Conversely, immediate support is established at $0.6493, with additional support levels at $0.6456 and $0.6419, potentially providing stability against further declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the pair stands at 34, indicating a bearish sentiment as it resides below the neutral 50 mark. This suggests that the pair is neither in the overbought nor oversold territory, leaving room for potential directional changes. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is marginally negative at -0.00056 compared to its signal line at -0.00185, hinting at a subdued bearish momentum.

Notably, the AUD/USD is trading just below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $0.6562, further underscoring the current bearish inclination. The observed upward channel breakout and the closing of candles below the 0.6550 level suggest selling pressure in the market. This technical pattern indicates a potential continuation of the bearish trend, provided the pair remains below the crucial 0.6550 threshold.

In conclusion, the AUD/USD pair exhibits a bearish bias in the short term, predominantly influenced by technical indicators and chart patterns. The currency pair's movements are likely to be contingent on the broader market sentiment and economic data releases, with a focus on resistance testing if there's a shift in market dynamics.

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Daily Price Outlook

- AUD/USD drops to 0.65321, facing resistance up to $0.6713 and support down to $0.6419.

- RSI at 34 and MACD slightly negative, indicating current bearish sentiment.

- Pair trades below the 50-day EMA, with a bearish outlook reinforced by recent channel breakout patterns.

On December 7, the Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) experienced a decline, registering a 0.27% decrease to 0.65321. The currency pair, in the broader scope of the Forex market, is situated at a crucial juncture, hovering around the pivot point of $0.6530. The AUD/USD faces immediate resistance at $0.6602, followed by higher barriers at $0.6639 and $0.6713. Conversely, immediate support is established at $0.6493, with additional support levels at $0.6456 and $0.6419, potentially providing stability against further declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the pair stands at 34, indicating a bearish sentiment as it resides below the neutral 50 mark. This suggests that the pair is neither in the overbought nor oversold territory, leaving room for potential directional changes. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is marginally negative at -0.00056 compared to its signal line at -0.00185, hinting at a subdued bearish momentum.

Notably, the AUD/USD is trading just below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $0.6562, further underscoring the current bearish inclination. The observed upward channel breakout and the closing of candles below the 0.6550 level suggest selling pressure in the market. This technical pattern indicates a potential continuation of the bearish trend, provided the pair remains below the crucial 0.6550 threshold.

In conclusion, the AUD/USD pair exhibits a bearish bias in the short term, predominantly influenced by technical indicators and chart patterns. The currency pair's movements are likely to be contingent on the broader market sentiment and economic data releases, with a focus on resistance testing if there's a shift in market dynamics.

AUD/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.65487

Take Profit – 0.64902

Stop Loss – 0.65969

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$585/ -$482

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$58/ -$48

Daily Price Outlook

- AUD/USD dips to 0.65, down 0.63% amid mixed cues.

- RSI at 37 suggests potential for a trend reversal.

- Key resistance set at $0.6600, pivotal for sentiment shift.

The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) experienced a retreat in today's market, edging down by 0.63% to a trading value of 0.65. This recent move underscores a tepid sentiment as the currency grapples with fluctuating market forces.

Technical levels delineate a battleground for the AUD, with a pivot point at $0.6500 serving as the day's barometer for trend direction. Should bullish momentum take hold, traders will look to an immediate ceiling at $0.6600, followed by successive resistance levels potentially up to $0.6700. However, a slip in confidence could see the Aussie test floors at $0.6400, a support zone that holds the key to staving off further declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 37, teetering towards the oversold territory but without decisively crossing the threshold, hinting at a bearish undercurrent yet a possibility of trend reversal if external market stimuli provide a nudge.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at $0.6600, poses a dynamic confluence point, with the AUD trading beneath it, a traditional bearish signal. Yet, the EMA's proximity to current levels could see it easily reclaimed in a bullish shift.

Chart patterns do not currently present a clear trajectory, awaiting clearer signals for directional bias.

In sum, the AUD/USD pairing reveals a bearish trend as long as it remains below the $0.6600 mark. The upcoming sessions are pivotal to determine if the Aussie can muster the strength to breach this threshold or if it will capitulate to lower support levels.

AUD/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.65859

Take Profit – 0.65139

Stop Loss – 0.66295

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$720/ -$436

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$72/ -$43

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and slipped below the level of 0.6600 during European trading session on Tuesday. However, this decline followed the monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). As widely anticipated, the RBA decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at 4.35%. Consequently, the decision had a negative effect on the Australian Dollar and contributed to the losses in AUD/USD pair.

On the other side, the market has factored in a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the interest rate within the range of 5.25% to 5.50% in the upcoming meeting. This exerted downward pressure on the US dollar and serve as a supportive factor for the AUD/USD pair.

RBA's Cautious Stance and Potential Impact on AUD/USD Pair

As we mentioned above, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at 4.35% during its December meeting. RBA Governor Michele Bullock mentioned that the need for additional tightening would depend on data and risk assessments for inflation targeting. Bullock also highlighted that maintaining the current cash rate allows the RBA to consider the effects of recent rate increases on demand, inflation, and the job market.

Therefore, the AUD/USD pair experienced a losses as the RBA's decision to keep the interest rate at 4.35% suggests a cautious stance, potentially leading to a weakening Australian Dollar.

Anticipated Fed Rate Cut and its Impact on AUD/USD

Moreover, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has reinforced expectations that the central bank won't raise rates further in its December meeting and might even cut rates by March 2024. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 97% chances that the Fed will maintain rates between 5.25% and 5.50% in the next meeting, with over a 50% chance of a 25 basis points rate cut by March next year, up from around 21% a week ago.

Hence, this potential rate cut could put downward pressure on the US Dollar, providing support for the AUD/USD pair.

AUD /USD - Technical Analysis

The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) experienced a retreat in today's market, edging down by 0.63% to a trading value of 0.65. This recent move underscores a tepid sentiment as the currency grapples with fluctuating market forces.

Technical levels delineate a battleground for the AUD, with a pivot point at $0.6500 serving as the day's barometer for trend direction. Should bullish momentum take hold, traders will look to an immediate ceiling at $0.6600, followed by successive resistance levels potentially up to $0.6700. However, a slip in confidence could see the Aussie test floors at $0.6400, a support zone that holds the key to staving off further declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 37, teetering towards the oversold territory but without decisively crossing the threshold, hinting at a bearish undercurrent yet a possibility of trend reversal if external market stimuli provide a nudge.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at $0.6600, poses a dynamic confluence point, with the AUD trading beneath it, a traditional bearish signal. Yet, the EMA's proximity to current levels could see it easily reclaimed in a bullish shift.

Chart patterns do not currently present a clear trajectory, awaiting clearer signals for directional bias.

In sum, the AUD/USD pairing reveals a bearish trend as long as it remains below the $0.6600 mark. The upcoming sessions are pivotal to determine if the Aussie can muster the strength to breach this threshold or if it will capitulate to lower support levels.

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