AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 08, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Despite the risk-on market sentiment, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and lost some of its traction around the 0.6490 level. However, the declines were mainly driven by the renewed strength of the US dollar, which recently gained traction in the wake of upbeat US macro data, along with hawkish remarks by several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. On the flip side, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates steady and hinted at potential future hikes, which is generally positive for the Australian dollar. This hawkish stance was seen as a key factor that kept the lid on any additional losses in the AUD/USD pair.
Influence of Fed Officials' Stance on AUD/USD Pair
Additionally, some Federal Reserve officials support the idea of keeping interest rates high for a longer time. Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler mentioned that even though inflation seems to be slowing down, she's not ready to lower rates. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari agrees, saying the Fed needs to be more sure about inflation trends before reducing rates, suggesting there might be two to three rate cuts in 2024. Boston Fed President Collins sees the chances of inflation going above 2% decreasing but admits there are challenges in reaching the target. She wants to see more evidence before thinking about rate cuts. Overall, the Fed is waiting for more inflation data to achieve its goal of a sustainable 2% inflation rate.
Therefore, the cautious stance of several Fed officials on interest rates may influence the AUD/USD pair by potentially strengthening the USD against the AUD due to higher expected interest rates in the US.
Impact of RBA Interest Rate Decision on AUD/USD Pair
Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained the interest rate on Tuesday, suggesting a potential hike due to persistently high inflation. Traders in the futures market predict the first rate cut by the RBA may happen in September, rather than August. This positive outlook supports the Australian Dollar, providing momentum for the AUD/USD pair.
Therefore, the RBA's stance on potentially raising interest rates boosts the Australian Dollar, helping the AUD/USD pair to limit its losses.
AUD/USD - Technical Analysis
As the currency markets open on February 8th, the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar (AUD/USD) is trading marginally lower at $0.65181, reflecting a subtle 0.04% decline. The currency pair hovers near a pivotal point marked by the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.65420, suggesting potential directional momentum.
The key technical pivot point for AUD/USD stands at $0.65182. This level is crucial as it signifies the balance of buyer and seller momentum. Should the pair ascend, immediate resistance is likely to be encountered at $0.65209, followed by $0.65248 and a more significant threshold at $0.65283. Conversely, should the pair trend downward, it may find support at $0.65151, with further potential cushions at $0.65100 and $0.65058.
With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at a neutral 46.44, there is room for movement in either direction without immediate overbought or oversold concerns. The proximity of the current price to the 50 EMA suggests that there is a tussle between bearish and bullish sentiment, with the potential for a breakout.
For traders looking to capitalize on the AUD/USD pair's movements, a Sell Limit order at $0.65315 might be considered, targeting a Take Profit level at $0.64897, while maintaining a Stop Loss at $0.65622 to manage risk.
Related News
AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- The AUD/USD pair's movement around the 50 EMA hints at an upcoming trend decision.
- RSI levels indicate neither overbought nor oversold conditions, allowing for a range of trading strategies.
- Traders might anticipate modest fluctuations with the potential for a more decisive move following economic catalysts.
As the currency markets open on February 8th, the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar (AUD/USD) is trading marginally lower at $0.65181, reflecting a subtle 0.04% decline. The currency pair hovers near a pivotal point marked by the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.65420, suggesting potential directional momentum.
The key technical pivot point for AUD/USD stands at $0.65182. This level is crucial as it signifies the balance of buyer and seller momentum. Should the pair ascend, immediate resistance is likely to be encountered at $0.65209, followed by $0.65248 and a more significant threshold at $0.65283. Conversely, should the pair trend downward, it may find support at $0.65151, with further potential cushions at $0.65100 and $0.65058.
With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at a neutral 46.44, there is room for movement in either direction without immediate overbought or oversold concerns. The proximity of the current price to the 50 EMA suggests that there is a tussle between bearish and bullish sentiment, with the potential for a breakout.
For traders looking to capitalize on the AUD/USD pair's movements, a Sell Limit order at $0.65315 might be considered, targeting a Take Profit level at $0.64897, while maintaining a Stop Loss at $0.65622 to manage risk.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Limit 0.65315
Take Profit – 0.64897
Stop Loss – 0.65622
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$418/ -$307
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$41/ -$30
AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD sees a gain to $0.64930, with potential upward momentum as indicated by the pivot at $0.6426 and resistance levels ahead.
- RSI and MACD indicate potential for a positive reversal, with the latter nearing a bullish crossover.
- A tight trading strategy suggests entering long positions above $0.64999, with a stop loss at $0.64674 to secure gains at $0.65437.
The Australian dollar edged up against its US counterpart, with the AUD/USD pair noting a modest rise of 0.16% to $0.64930 as of February 6. The currency pair has seen a slight lift in the 4-hour chart, reflecting a tempered but positive sentiment among traders.
The pivot point for the session is set at $0.6426, marking the immediate baseline for any shifts in market dynamics. Resistance levels are charted at $0.6471, followed by $0.6548 and $0.6588, which could serve as ceilings in the pair's upward trajectory. Supports are delineated at $0.6346, $0.6272, and $0.6195, potentially halting any bearish pullback.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37 indicates a market that is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for potential price swings in either direction. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a value of -0.00040 with its signal at -0.00243, implying that the negative momentum is abating, as the MACD line is closer to crossing above the signal line, potentially signaling an upcoming bullish phase.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $0.6502, just above the current price, suggesting a very tight trading range with the potential for the currency to oscillate around this key moving average.
In light of these observations, the overall technical outlook for the AUD/USD appears cautiously optimistic, with a strategy to buy above $0.64999, targeting profits at $0.65437, and placing a stop loss at $0.64674 to manage risk.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.64999
Take Profit – 0.65437
Stop Loss – 0.64674
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.35
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$438/ -$325
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$43/ -$32
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 06, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
The AUD/USD currency pair maintained its bullish bias and surged to the 0.6510 level. However, the reason for its upward trend can be attributed to the upbeat Australia's Retail Sales data, which tends to underpin the AUD currency and contribute to the AUD/USD pair gains. Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% at February's meeting, as expected. The maintenance of the OCR at 4.35% by the RBA can be seen as positive news for the AUD because it indicates stability in monetary policy, which can attract investors and support the currency.
In contrast to this, upbeat US economy data and the hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell boosted the US dollar, which was seen as a key factor that capped further gains in the AUD/USD pair. Apart from this, the risk-off market sentiment, backed by the ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East and China's economy woes, was seen as another key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the AUD/USD pair.
RBA's Cautious Approach and its Potential Impact on AUD/USD Pair
It is worth noting that the latest Retail Sales data in Australia showed a slight uptick of 0.3% in the fourth quarter, indicating a modest improvement compared to the previous growth. However, Australia is currently facing a significant cost-of-living crisis, which poses challenges for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in terms of further interest rate hikes.Investors are eagerly waiting for RBA Governor Michele Bullock's speech to understand what the central bank might do next. Bullock said the bank is considering different ways to manage the economy and is watching inflation closely.
Consequently, this news could positively affect the AUD/USD pair as the RBA's cautious approach may stabilize the Australian economy, boosting investor confidence and potentially strengthening the Australian dollar against the US dollar.
Impact of Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance on AUD/USD Pair
Furthermore, the broad-based US Dollar maintained its position near a three-month high after the Federal Reserve adopted a hawkish stance, supported by strong ISM Services data for January. Notably, the ISM Services PMI exceeded expectations, reaching 53.4, above both the consensus of 52.0 and the previous month's 50.5. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks, emphasizing the importance of closely monitoring inflation's movement toward the 2% target, reduced expectations of rate cuts, further bolstering the dollar.
Therefore this news likely led to a decline in the AUD/USD pair due to the US Dollar's strength following the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and positive ISM Services data, coupled with rising US Treasury yields.
AUD/USD - Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar edged up against its US counterpart, with the AUD/USD pair noting a modest rise of 0.16% to $0.64930 as of February 6. The currency pair has seen a slight lift in the 4-hour chart, reflecting a tempered but positive sentiment among traders.
The pivot point for the session is set at $0.6426, marking the immediate baseline for any shifts in market dynamics. Resistance levels are charted at $0.6471, followed by $0.6548 and $0.6588, which could serve as ceilings in the pair's upward trajectory. Supports are delineated at $0.6346, $0.6272, and $0.6195, potentially halting any bearish pullback.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37 indicates a market that is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for potential price swings in either direction. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a value of -0.00040 with its signal at -0.00243, implying that the negative momentum is abating, as the MACD line is closer to crossing above the signal line, potentially signaling an upcoming bullish phase.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $0.6502, just above the current price, suggesting a very tight trading range with the potential for the currency to oscillate around this key moving average.
In light of these observations, the overall technical outlook for the AUD/USD appears cautiously optimistic, with a strategy to buy above $0.64999, targeting profits at $0.65437, and placing a stop loss at $0.64674 to manage risk.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 06, 2024
AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD at 0.65660, down 0.01%; pivot point at 0.6545 with bearish indicators.
- Resistance levels at 0.6583, 0.6615; support at 0.6514, suggesting cautious sentiment.
- RSI at 42, MACD negative; suggest selling below 0.65619, with targets and stop loss set.
The AUD/USD pair, on February 1st, exhibits a slight downtrend, trading at 0.65660, marking a marginal decrease of 0.01%. This subtle movement points towards a cautious market sentiment, as traders navigate through the key technical levels identified for this currency pair.
The technical landscape outlines a pivot point at 0.6545, suggesting an immediate battleground for bulls and bears. Resistance levels are set at 0.6583, 0.6615, and 0.6653, each representing potential reversal points in the short-term bullish scenario. Conversely, support is found at 0.6514, with further floors at 0.6475 and 0.6436, crucial for holding the pair in a downtrend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 42, indicating a lean towards bearish momentum without reaching oversold conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) underscores this sentiment, with a value of -0.00054 beneath the signal line of -0.00035, hinting at potential downward momentum.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6578 currently hovers above the market price, suggesting a resistance level that could curb upward movements. An observed breakout from the upward channel around the 0.6575 level hints at bearish potential, particularly if a bearish engulfing pattern forms below this threshold.
In summary, the AUD/USD pair's current stance is cautiously bearish, with a recommended sell entry below 0.65619. Traders might target a take-profit level at 0.65256, while a stop loss at 0.65886 could mitigate potential losses. This outlook encapsulates a strategic approach to trading the AUD/USD, considering the prevailing technical indicators and market dynamics.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.65619
Take Profit – 0.65256
Stop Loss – 0.65886
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$363/ -$267
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$36/ -$26
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 01, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
The AUD/USD currency pair continued its downward trend and remained well offered around the $0.6527 level. However, the reason for this decline can be attributed to downbeat Australian data, which undermined the Australian dollar and contributed to losses in the AUD/USD pair. Furthermore, the bullish US dollar, backed by Fed Chair Powell's hawkish comments, played a significant role in supporting the downward movement of the AUD/USD currency pair.
Australian Dollar Challenges Amidst RBA's Potential Interest Rate Cuts
It's important to highlight that Australia's dollar has been facing challenges due to rising expectations of early interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). This follows a weaker-than-expected quarterly inflation report. Although the RBA is likely to maintain the cash rate at 4.35% in February, bond traders are pricing in two quarter-point reductions in 2024, starting possibly in August.
Moreover, National Australia Bank's Business Confidence for Q4 decreased to -6, indicating a decline in business sentiment. Building Permits (MoM) also fell by 9.5% in December, contrasting with the expected growth of 1.1%. In China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for January held steady at 50.8, slightly exceeding the anticipated 50.6 reading.
Australia's Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported a year-on-year increase of 3.4% in December, lower than both November's 4.3% and the expected 3.7%. RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) for Q4 decreased to 4.2%, below the previous 5.2% and the expected 4.3%. Additionally, the Australian CPI (QoQ) figure for December was 0.6%, softer than the expected 0.8% and a notable drop from the previous 1.2%.
US Dollar Strength and Challenges for AUD/USD Amid Economic Indicators and Global Tensions
Moreover, the US Dollar initially faced losses due to disappointing employment figures but rebounded after hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell. Increasing US Treasury yields further supported the USD. In the meantime, the heightened tensions in the Middle East, causing increased risk aversion, also contributed to the Dollar's strength, posing a challenge for the AUD/USD pair.
It should be noted that the US ADP Employment Change fell short at 107K in January, below the expected 145K. Despite a decrease in yields, the US Treasury remains sustainable since October 2023, with stronger economic growth improving tax receipts. The US plans to borrow $760 billion in Q1, lower than the October estimate of $816 billion. The Employment Cost Index eased to 0.9% in Q4, below the expected 1.0%. The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index was 46 in January, missing the expected increase, and US JOLTS Job Openings improved to 9.026M in December, surpassing the anticipated 8.75M. The US Housing Price Index (MoM) remained unchanged at 0.3% in November.
AUD/USD - Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair, on February 1st, exhibits a slight downtrend, trading at 0.65660, marking a marginal decrease of 0.01%. This subtle movement points towards a cautious market sentiment, as traders navigate through the key technical levels identified for this currency pair.
The technical landscape outlines a pivot point at 0.6545, suggesting an immediate battleground for bulls and bears. Resistance levels are set at 0.6583, 0.6615, and 0.6653, each representing potential reversal points in the short-term bullish scenario. Conversely, support is found at 0.6514, with further floors at 0.6475 and 0.6436, crucial for holding the pair in a downtrend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 42, indicating a lean towards bearish momentum without reaching oversold conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) underscores this sentiment, with a value of -0.00054 beneath the signal line of -0.00035, hinting at potential downward momentum.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6578 currently hovers above the market price, suggesting a resistance level that could curb upward movements. An observed breakout from the upward channel around the 0.6575 level hints at bearish potential, particularly if a bearish engulfing pattern forms below this threshold.
In summary, the AUD/USD pair's current stance is cautiously bearish, with a recommended sell entry below 0.65619. Traders might target a take-profit level at 0.65256, while a stop loss at 0.65886 could mitigate potential losses. This outlook encapsulates a strategic approach to trading the AUD/USD, considering the prevailing technical indicators and market dynamics.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 01, 2024
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Jan 30, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
The AUD/USD currency pair maintained its upward rally and remained well bid above the 0.6615 level. However, the reason for its upward trend can be attributed to upbeat Australia's Manufacturing PMI data, which increased from 47.6 to 50.3, showcasing improvement. Meanwhile, the sluggish performance of the US dollar was seen as another key factor that kept the AUD/USD pair higher. Investors are keeping an close eye on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement scheduled for Wednesday, January 31.
Retail Sales Drop Amidst Positive Indicators and AUD Resilience
It is worth noting that Australia's Retail Sales for December unexpectedly dropped by 2.7%, oppose from the predicted 0.9% decrease. This marked a significant shift from the previous 2.0% growth. Interestingly, the Australian Dollar strengthened despite this disappointing consumer spending news. However, the resilience of the AUD can be linked to upbeat Australia's Manufacturing PMI and positive vibes surrounding additional stimulus measures in China, influencing the AUD/USD pair.
On a positive note, Australia's Manufacturing PMI rose from 47.6 to 50.3, indicating improvement. The Services PMI also saw an increase from 47.1 to 47.9, and the Composite PMI rose to 48.1 from December's 46.9. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of Australia's Bulletin suggests that businesses foresee a moderation in price growth over the last six months, expecting prices to stay above the RBA's inflation target range of 2.0–3.0%. Looking ahead, the focus is on Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data expected on Wednesday, projecting a Q4 decline of 0.8% from the previous 1.2%.
Despite Australia's Retail Sales decline, the AUD/USD pair strengthened, likely influenced by positive sentiments from China's additional stimulus.
USD Stability, Rate Cut Expectations, and Global Tensions Impact AUD/USD Pair
Moreover, the broad-based US Dollar showed mixed performance and rebounded slightly after a slight dip on Monday, thanks to a more cautious market mood. However, concerns about potential US military action in response to a drone attack in Jordan could escalate geopolitical tension, which could increase risk aversion and undermine the riskier asset AUD. Investors are eagerly awaiting Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, expecting the Fed Funds rate to remain at 5.25-5.50%. There's a growing belief in a possible rate cut in March, impacting the US Dollar (USD).
In economic news, the US Core PCE for December matched expectations with a 0.2% monthly increase. However, the yearly Core PCE slightly fell short at 2.9%, below the expected 3.0%. Moreover, the Q4 US Gross Domestic Product Annualized surpassed market expectations, reporting a 3.3% reading compared to the previous 4.9%.
Therefore, the US economic updates, including a matched Core PCE for December and better-than-expected Q4 GDP, may strengthen the USD, potentially impacting the AUD/USD pair.
AUD/USD - Technical Analysis
In the current forex market landscape, the AUD/USD pair, as of January 30, is exhibiting subtle changes, trading at 0.66066, marking a marginal decline of 0.01%. Analyzing the 4-hour chart provides insights into the currency pair's technical outlook, highlighting key levels that are of significant interest to traders.
The pivot point, a crucial technical indicator, is set at 0.6583. This serves as a baseline for the day's trading bias. Resistance levels are mapped out at 0.6615, 0.6654, and 0.6685. These levels are essential for traders to watch, as they represent potential ceilings where selling pressure might intensify, thereby capping upward movements. Conversely, support levels are identified at 0.6543, 0.6512, and 0.6475. These points could provide relief in case of a downward trend, offering opportunities for buyers to step in.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 54, indicating a relatively neutral market momentum with a slight inclination towards bullish sentiment. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of 0.0005 above its signal line at 0.0003, suggesting the potential for an upward trend. Furthermore, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently at 0.6601, closely aligning with the current price level, adding to the stability of the current trend.
An upward channel pattern is observed in the chart, which typically indicates a sustained bullish trend. This pattern suggests that the AUD/USD pair might continue its upward trajectory, supported by the current technical indicators.
A buy limit order at 0.66064 with a take-profit target at 0.66491 and a stop-loss set at 0.65737 could be a strategic approach to capitalize on the current market conditions.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – Jan 30, 2024
AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- The AUD/USD pair is showing a stable but slightly bullish trend at 0.66066.
- Key resistance at 0.6615 and 0.6654; support at 0.6543 and 0.6512.
- Technical indicators and chart patterns support a potential buying trend.
In the current forex market landscape, the AUD/USD pair, as of January 30, is exhibiting subtle changes, trading at 0.66066, marking a marginal decline of 0.01%. Analyzing the 4-hour chart provides insights into the currency pair's technical outlook, highlighting key levels that are of significant interest to traders.
The pivot point, a crucial technical indicator, is set at 0.6583. This serves as a baseline for the day's trading bias. Resistance levels are mapped out at 0.6615, 0.6654, and 0.6685. These levels are essential for traders to watch, as they represent potential ceilings where selling pressure might intensify, thereby capping upward movements. Conversely, support levels are identified at 0.6543, 0.6512, and 0.6475. These points could provide relief in case of a downward trend, offering opportunities for buyers to step in.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 54, indicating a relatively neutral market momentum with a slight inclination towards bullish sentiment. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of 0.0005 above its signal line at 0.0003, suggesting the potential for an upward trend. Furthermore, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently at 0.6601, closely aligning with the current price level, adding to the stability of the current trend.
An upward channel pattern is observed in the chart, which typically indicates a sustained bullish trend. This pattern suggests that the AUD/USD pair might continue its upward trajectory, supported by the current technical indicators.
A buy limit order at 0.66064 with a take-profit target at 0.66491 and a stop-loss set at 0.65737 could be a strategic approach to capitalize on the current market conditions.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Limit 0.66064
Take Profit – 0.66491
Stop Loss – 0.65737
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$427/ -$327
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$42/ -$32
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Jan 25, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Despite the bullish US dollar, the AUD/USD currency pair managed to halt its downward trend and attracted some modest bids around the $0.6580 level. The upward movement can be attributed to the release of improved preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from Australia on Wednesday.
In contrast to this, the release of positive S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from the United States could decrease the probability of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in March. This, in turn, could boost the US dollar and cap gains in the AUD/USD pair.
RBA Economic Signals and Mixed Data Impact on AUD/USD Pair
It's worth noting that the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Bulletin indicates that businesses expect a slowdown in price growth over the next six months. They anticipate prices to remain above the RBA's target range of 2.0–3.0%. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI rose from 47.6 to 50.3, signaling improvement, while the Services PMI increased from 47.1 to 47.9. The Composite PMI also went up to 48.1. However, Australia's Westpac Leading Index decreased by 0.03% in December.
In the meantime, National Australia Bank's Business Conditions slightly dropped to 7 in December, while Business Confidence improved to -1. Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations held steady at 4.5% in January. However, the Chair of Australia's sovereign wealth fund, Peter Costello, mentioned that inflation is showing early signs of moderation, but there's still work to be done to bring prices back within the RBA's target band.
Therefore, the RBA's indication of a slowdown in price growth, along with mixed economic data, could create uncertainty for the AUD/USD pair. Traders may watch closely for further developments in inflation and business conditions.
US Dollar's Recovery and Challenges Amidst Risk-On Market Sentiment
Moreover, the US Dollar is trying to bounce back despite lower US Treasury yields. However, the US Dollar (USD) faces challenges due to a risk-on market sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) January 31 interest rate decision. Investors are eyeing Thursday's preliminary US Gross Domestic Product Annualized release, expected to show a Q4 reading of 2.0%, down from the previous 4.9%. This data offers insights into overall economic performance, impacting market expectations on the Fed's monetary policy stance.
Notably, positive US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI, along with an improved Consumer Sentiment Index, help the US dollar regain its strength, which is seen as a key factor that could cap further gains in the AUD/USD pair.
AUD/USD - Technical Analysis
In the current forex landscape, the AUD/USD pair is showing a marginal decline, trading at 0.65745, down by 0.04%. The pair's technical outlook hinges around the pivot point at $0.6516, which serves as a crucial indicator of the pair's short-term directional bias.
Resistance levels for the AUD/USD are set at $0.6609, $0.6695, and $0.6791. These levels represent potential ceilings where selling pressure might intensify. On the downside, immediate support is found at $0.6427, with further cushions at $0.6334 and $0.6239, acting as safety nets against bearish movements.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45 suggests a neutral market sentiment. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stands at 0.0 with its signal line at -0.00027, indicating a possible shift in momentum. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently at $0.6585, slightly above the current market price.
Considering these indicators, the overall trend for the AUD/USD seems to be tilting towards neutrality with a slight bearish inclination. A prudent trading strategy could be to set a sell limit at 0.65970, with a take profit target at 0.65307 and a stop loss at 0.66361, carefully balancing potential risks and rewards.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – Jan 25, 2024
AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD slightly down at 0.65745; pivot point at $0.6516 indicates balance.
- Key resistances at $0.6609, $0.6695; supports at $0.6427, $0.6334.
- RSI at 45 and MACD near zero; suggesting neutral to slight bearish trend.
In the current forex landscape, the AUD/USD pair is showing a marginal decline, trading at 0.65745, down by 0.04%. The pair's technical outlook hinges around the pivot point at $0.6516, which serves as a crucial indicator of the pair's short-term directional bias.
Resistance levels for the AUD/USD are set at $0.6609, $0.6695, and $0.6791. These levels represent potential ceilings where selling pressure might intensify. On the downside, immediate support is found at $0.6427, with further cushions at $0.6334 and $0.6239, acting as safety nets against bearish movements.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45 suggests a neutral market sentiment. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stands at 0.0 with its signal line at -0.00027, indicating a possible shift in momentum. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently at $0.6585, slightly above the current market price.
Considering these indicators, the overall trend for the AUD/USD seems to be tilting towards neutrality with a slight bearish inclination. A prudent trading strategy could be to set a sell limit at 0.65970, with a take profit target at 0.65307 and a stop loss at 0.66361, carefully balancing potential risks and rewards.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Limit 0.65970
Take Profit – 0.65307
Stop Loss – 0.66361
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$663/ -$391
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$66/ -$39