AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 02, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Despite the renewed strength of the US dollar, the AUD/USD currency pair has managed to stop its previous losses and regained some traction around the 0.6499 level. However, this mild bullish performance of the AUD/USD pair can be attributed to several factors, including the strength shown by the Australian economy. Despite global economic challenges, Australia has shown a strong recovery, supported by strong domestic demand and ongoing fiscal stimulus measures. Moreover, rising commodity prices, especially for key exports like iron ore, have bolstered Australia's export earnings and contributed to the positive sentiment surrounding the Australian dollar.
On the other hand, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is cautiously optimistic and committed to helping the economy with supportive monetary policies. Despite ongoing inflation worries, the RBA's actions have given stability and confidence to investors, boosting the AUD/USD pair's upward movement.
RBA Minutes and Impact on AUD/USD Currency Pair
It is worth noting that the recent RBA meeting minutes showed that the bank is not thinking about raising interest rates and this was not surprising to markets because the RBA is focused on helping the economy recover and managing inflation using other methods. However, the decision to keep rates unchanged had a mixed impact on the AUD/USD pair. Initially, it caused a small drop in the Australian dollar against the US dollar, but overall, the market stayed positive because of the RBA's supportive policies, which helped the AUD/USD pair to regain its traction.
Chinese Yuan's Performance and Its Impact on AUD/USD Currency Pair
On the other side, the Chinese Yuan recently dropped to its lowest level in four-and-a-half months, leading China to take steps to stabilize its currency and boost economic growth. It should be noted that China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported better manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI figures, suggesting a potential economic recovery. These improvements in China, along with efforts to support the Yuan, have indirectly helped the Australian dollar due to Australia's close trade relationship with China.
If China's economy keeps improving, it could lead to higher demand for Australian exports, which would benefit the AUD/USD pair.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Fed's Stance on Interest Rates
On the US front, the rise of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI to its highest level since September 2022, along with other positive economic data, has strengthened the US dollar and increased expectations for a less dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent comments, expressing contentment with inflation data and suggesting a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments, have contributed to the dollar's strength.
Therefore, the strengthened US dollar, fueled by positive economic data and expectations of a less dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, has put downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair due to the inverse relationship between the two currencies.
AUD/USD - Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair on April 2 exhibits slight bearishness, trading at 0.64885, a decrement of 0.01%. The currency pair is currently hovering around a critical pivot point at 0.6498, which may serve as a juncture for potential directional shifts. Resistance levels are established at 0.6515, 0.6539, and 0.6557, marking thresholds where the price may encounter upward pressure. Conversely, support is found at 0.6474, 0.6462, and 0.6443, which could provide a foundation for price stabilization or a rebound.
The technical landscape is shaped by the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6515 and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37, both of which signal a bearish inclination, corroborated by the prevailing downward trendline and bearish channel observed in the 2-hour timeframe.
In conclusion, the AUD/USD pair presents a bearish outlook below the pivot of 0.6498. Traders may consider a selling strategy below the 0.64979 mark, targeting a profit at 0.64615 while placing a stop loss at 0.65157, paying close attention to the identified technical levels and indicators for any shifts in market dynamics.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold (XAU/USD) trends upward, trading at $2,251.445 with a pivot point at $2,266.
- Resistance outlined at $2,285, $2,303, and $2,319, with support at $2,249 and below.
- Indicators like RSI (63) and 50 EMA ($2,210) suggest bullish momentum.
The AUD/USD pair on April 2 exhibits slight bearishness, trading at 0.64885, a decrement of 0.01%. The currency pair is currently hovering around a critical pivot point at 0.6498, which may serve as a juncture for potential directional shifts. Resistance levels are established at 0.6515, 0.6539, and 0.6557, marking thresholds where the price may encounter upward pressure. Conversely, support is found at 0.6474, 0.6462, and 0.6443, which could provide a foundation for price stabilization or a rebound.
The technical landscape is shaped by the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6515 and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37, both of which signal a bearish inclination, corroborated by the prevailing downward trendline and bearish channel observed in the 2-hour timeframe.
In conclusion, the AUD/USD pair presents a bearish outlook below the pivot of 0.6498. Traders may consider a selling strategy below the 0.64979 mark, targeting a profit at 0.64615 while placing a stop loss at 0.65157, paying close attention to the identified technical levels and indicators for any shifts in market dynamics.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.64979
Take Profit – 0.64615
Stop Loss – 0.65157
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$364/ -$178
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$36/ -$17
AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD's decline to 0.6528 underscores market caution, with pivotal resistance and support levels in focus.
- Technical indicators, including a sub-50 RSI and 50 EMA resistance, signal potential bearish momentum.
- Strategy suggests a bearish outlook, advocating for sells below 0.65409 with specific targets and stop loss parameters.
The AUD/USD pair has experienced a slight decrease, down by 0.12%, with its price settling at 0.6528. Amidst fluctuating market conditions, the Australian dollar struggles to maintain its foothold against the US dollar, as investors remain cautious ahead of potential shifts in monetary policy and economic indicators. The pivot point at 0.6541 signifies a critical juncture for AUD/USD, where its future trajectory could be decided. Resistance levels at 0.6572, 0.6598, and 0.6630 present hurdles for any bullish momentum, while support levels at 0.6504, 0.6478, and 0.6448 offer a cushion against further declines.
Technical indicators suggest a challenging environment for AUD/USD. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6543, just above the current price, acts as a barrier to upward movement. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) standing at 46, below the midpoint of 50, indicates a bearish sentiment within the market. This confluence of technical signals hints at potential weakness, suggesting that the pair might face downward pressure in the short term.
Considering these factors, the outlook for AUD/USD appears tilted towards bearishness below the pivot point of 0.6541. Traders might consider a sell strategy below the specified entry price of 0.65409, targeting a pullback to 0.65044 while setting a stop loss at 0.65611 to mitigate risk.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.65409
Take Profit – 0.65044
Stop Loss – 0.65611
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$365/ -$202
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$36/ -$20
AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 28, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European session, the AUD/USD currency pair experienced a downward trend and remained well offered around the 0.6500 level. However, the reason for its downward trend can be attributed to various factors, including downbeat Consumer Inflation Expectations and Retail Sales figures from Australia, which raised concerns about the country's economic outlook and the potential for interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Furthermore, the cautious sentiments from members of the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of rate cuts contributed to the pressure on the Australian dollar against the US Dollar.
In addition to this, the risk-off market sentiment triggered by ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Palestine, was seen as another key factor that undermined the riskier asset Australian dollar and kept the AUD/USD currency pair down.
Softer Consumer Inflation Expectations and Retail Sales Figures
As mentioned, the AUD/USD currency pair has been declining amid expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia might lower interest rates in 2024. This view was reinforced by weaker Consumer Inflation Expectations and Retail Sales in Australia. Moreover, the Australian Monthly Consumer Price Index for February fell short of expectations, sparking concerns about Australia's economy. These worries have contributed to pushing the AUD/USD pair lower.
On the data front, Australia's consumer expectations for future inflation dropped slightly to 4.3% in March, down from the previous 4.5% rise. In the meantime, February's Retail Sales increased by 0.3% from the previous month, but it fell short of the expected 0.4% and the earlier 1.1% jump. Plus, Australia's Monthly Consumer Price Index for February showed a 3.4% year-on-year increase, just below the anticipated 3.5%. Meanwhile, Westpac Consumer Confidence decreased to 84.4 in March from February's 86.0, after hitting a 20-month high.
On the positive side, the Westpac Leading Index rose by 0.1% in February. The government aims to raise the minimum wage in line with inflation this year to help low-income families cope with rising living costs. Therefore, the AUD/USD pair faced downward pressure as Australia's softer consumer inflation expectations, lower-than-expected retail sales, and slightly below-anticipated CPI figures heightened concerns about the country's economic outlook.
Federal Reserve's Cautious Stance on Interest Rates
On the US front, Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller's hawkish stance on interest rates also affected the performance of the AUD/USD currency pair by underpinning the US dollar. Despite sticky inflation data, Waller expressed a no-rush approach to cutting rates. This cautious stance suggested that the Federal Reserve might not be quick to implement monetary policy easing measures, which could support the US Dollar and contributes to the declines in the AUD/USD pair.
Moreover, Some Federal Reserve members, like Bostic and Cook, said cutting rates too soon could make inflation worse. Goolsbee, from Chicago Fed, leaned toward cutting rates but wants to see proof that inflation is getting better first.
Therefore, the AUD/USD pair faced pressure as Federal Reserve officials, including Christopher Waller, signaled a cautious approach to rate cuts despite inflation concerns, bolstering the US Dollar against the Australian Dollar.
AUD/USD - Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair has experienced a slight decrease, down by 0.12%, with its price settling at 0.6528. Amidst fluctuating market conditions, the Australian dollar struggles to maintain its foothold against the US dollar, as investors remain cautious ahead of potential shifts in monetary policy and economic indicators. The pivot point at 0.6541 signifies a critical juncture for AUD/USD, where its future trajectory could be decided. Resistance levels at 0.6572, 0.6598, and 0.6630 present hurdles for any bullish momentum, while support levels at 0.6504, 0.6478, and 0.6448 offer a cushion against further declines.
Technical indicators suggest a challenging environment for AUD/USD. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6543, just above the current price, acts as a barrier to upward movement. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) standing at 46, below the midpoint of 50, indicates a bearish sentiment within the market. This confluence of technical signals hints at potential weakness, suggesting that the pair might face downward pressure in the short term.
Considering these factors, the outlook for AUD/USD appears tilted towards bearishness below the pivot point of 0.6541. Traders might consider a sell strategy below the specified entry price of 0.65409, targeting a pullback to 0.65044 while setting a stop loss at 0.65611 to mitigate risk.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 26, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
The AUD/USD currency pair has maintained its upward trend and still showing bullish performance around 0.6550 level. However, the reason for its upward trend can be attributed to the decline in the US dollar, as evidenced by the struggles of the US Dollar Index (DXY) over consecutive days. This weakening of the Greenback has provided support to the AUD/USD pair, contributing to its upward momentum.
Furthermore, the Australian equity market's positive performance has also played a role in bolstering the Australian Dollar. Despite modest weakness in Wall Street, the ASX 200 Index has extended its winning streak, indicating investor confidence in the Australian economy. This optimism in the equity market has spilled over into the currency markets, providing strength to the Aussie Dollar.
Moreover, Australia's government has pledged to support a minimum wage increase aligned with inflation, addressing the concerns of low-income families amidst rising living costs. This commitment to supporting the economy has further boosted confidence in the Australian Dollar, contributing to its bullish performance against the US Dollar.
In contrast to this, Australian Dollar faced slight downward pressure following the release of Australia's Westpac Consumer Confidence data, which dipped 1.8% to 84.4 in March 2024 from February's 86.0, easing from 20-month highs. However, the overall bullish sentiment surrounding the AUD/USD pair persisted, supported by factors such as improved market sentiment and a positive outlook for the Australian equity market.
Australian Equity Market Gains and its Impact on AUD/USD Currency Pair
As mentioned earlier, the Australian equity market experienced gains, contributing to the strength of the Australian Dollar and impacting the AUD/USD currency pair. However, the expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), driven by a decline in Aussie consumer confidence, bolstered investor sentiment. Despite modest weakness on Wall Street overnight, the ASX 200 Index extended its winning streak, providing a favorable environment for the Australian Dollar.
Investors monitored the release of Australia's monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, scheduled for Wednesday, for further insights into the economic landscape and potential monetary policy adjustments by the RBA. The government's commitment to supporting a minimum wage increase aligned with inflation also underscored efforts to address challenges faced by low-income families amid rising living costs, fostering positive sentiment towards the Australian economy and its currency.
Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations and Impact on AUD/USD Currency Pair
On the US front, the Federal Reserve's expectation of rate cut cycle, coupled with previously released downbeat US economic data, influenced the AUD/USD currency pair. On the data front, US New Home Sales Change declined by 0.3% month-over-month, falling short of expectations, while S&P Global Services PMI showed a slight decrease in March. These figures indicated challenges in the US economic recovery, adding pressure on the dollar and boosting the AUD/USD currency pair.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expressed a conservative outlook, expecting just one rate cut this year to avoid premature disruptions. In contrast, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee aligned with the majority of the board, anticipating three cuts but emphasizing the need for additional evidence of decreasing inflation. Hence, the divergence in views within the Fed contributed to market uncertainty but provided support for the AUD/USD pair amid expectations of accommodative monetary policy.
Bloomberg Survey on PBoC's RRR Cuts and Impact on AUD/USD Currency Pair
According to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, they predict that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) will make two more cuts to the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) in 2024, totaling a 50 basis point reduction. This means the PBoC will require banks to hold less money in reserve, aiming to boost economic growth and increase available funds in China. This move could indirectly help Australia's economy because of its strong trade relationship with China, possibly leading to a stronger AUD/USD currency pair.
AUD/USD - Technical Analysis
The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) holds steady in today's trading, showing a negligible decline to a rate of 0.65367. In the broader context, this movement reflects the nuanced interplay of economic indicators, market sentiment, and global financial dynamics influencing the currency pair.
A detailed technical analysis reveals that AUD/USD is operating just below the pivot point of 0.6555, indicating a potential inflection in market direction. Resistance levels are poised at 0.6593, 0.6626, and 0.6667, delineating clear barriers to upward momentum. Conversely, immediate support lies at 0.6512, with further floors at 0.6478 and 0.6448, which could offer rebound opportunities. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) standing at 46 suggests a slightly bearish sentiment, yet not deeply entrenched in oversold territory. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) closely mirrors the pivot point at 0.6554, suggesting a near equilibrium between buying and selling forces.
Given these observations, the recommended strategy involves placing a sell limit at 0.65552, with a target for taking profit at 0.65102, and a stop loss set at 0.65927. This tactical approach capitalizes on the AUD/USD's current stability, leveraging minor fluctuations for potential gains, whilst mindful of the currency pair's sensitivity to shifts in economic reports and geopolitical events.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD Marginally Down: Trading slightly lower at 0.65367, signaling subtle market shifts.
- Key Technical Levels Identified: Resistance at 0.6593, 0.6626, 0.6667; support at 0.6512, 0.6478, 0.6448.
- Strategic Trading Plan: Sell limit set at 0.65552, targeting profits at 0.65102, with a stop loss at 0.65927.
The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) holds steady in today's trading, showing a negligible decline to a rate of 0.65367. In the broader context, this movement reflects the nuanced interplay of economic indicators, market sentiment, and global financial dynamics influencing the currency pair.
A detailed technical analysis reveals that AUD/USD is operating just below the pivot point of 0.6555, indicating a potential inflection in market direction. Resistance levels are poised at 0.6593, 0.6626, and 0.6667, delineating clear barriers to upward momentum. Conversely, immediate support lies at 0.6512, with further floors at 0.6478 and 0.6448, which could offer rebound opportunities. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) standing at 46 suggests a slightly bearish sentiment, yet not deeply entrenched in oversold territory. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) closely mirrors the pivot point at 0.6554, suggesting a near equilibrium between buying and selling forces.
Given these observations, the recommended strategy involves placing a sell limit at 0.65552, with a target for taking profit at 0.65102, and a stop loss set at 0.65927. This tactical approach capitalizes on the AUD/USD's current stability, leveraging minor fluctuations for potential gains, whilst mindful of the currency pair's sensitivity to shifts in economic reports and geopolitical events.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Limit 0.65552
Take Profit – 0.65102
Stop Loss – 0.65927
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$450/ -$375
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$45/ -$37
AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- The AUD/USD shows resilience but faces resistance near 0.6631, suggesting caution.
- Overbought conditions and a double-top pattern hint at potential reversal points.
- Strategic entry and exit points set for cautious trading amidst potential volatility.
The AUD/USD pair experienced a notable uptick in the March 21 trading session, marking a 0.62% rise to settle at 0.66257. This movement signifies a resurgence in bullish sentiment, yet the currency pair encounters a pivotal juncture at the 0.6631 pivot point. Resistance levels at 0.6649, 0.6666, and 0.6686 delineate the potential ceilings for further gains, while support levels established at 0.6597, 0.6573, and 0.6552 provide floors to cushion any downward pressures.
Technical indicators suggest a nuanced picture; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 71 indicates a market that is veering into overbought territory, hinting at potential pullbacks. Moreover, the formation of a double-top pattern near the 0.6630 level suggests that the Australian dollar may struggle to sustain its upward momentum, with a close beneath this pivotal mark potentially ushering in a bearish correction phase.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.66309
Take Profit – 0.65929
Stop Loss – 0.66651
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.1
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$380/ -$342
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$38/ -$34
AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 21, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
The AUD/USD currency pair maintained its upward rally and remained well bid around the 0.6631 level. The reason for its upward trend can be attributed to the risk-on market sentiment, which tends to underpin the Australian dollar and contribute to the gains of the AUD/USD currency pair. Apart from this, positive employment data from Australia was seen as another key factor that kept the AUD/USD pair higher, as it indicates a strong economy, boosting investor confidence in the Australian dollar (AUD), leading to increased demand and a higher value against the US dollar (USD).
Moreover, the bearish US dollar, driven by the dovish Fed outlook, has played a major role in underpinning the AUD/USD currency pair. The Federal Reserve plans to reduce interest rates by 75 basis points throughout the year, signaling a commitment to accommodative monetary policy in response to economic conditions. This weakens the US dollar and potentially strengthens the AUD/USD pair.
Australian Economic Indicators Impact Currency Markets
On the data front, Australian Employment Change for February surged to 116.5K, exceeding expectations of 40.0K and the previous figure of 15.3K. However, the Unemployment Rate increased to 3.7%, lower than the expected 4.0% and the previous 4.1%. The preliminary Judo Bank Services PMI rose to 53.5 from the previous figure of 53.1, while the Composite PMI showed a slight uptick to 52.4 compared to the previous 52.1.
Hence, the positive employment data from Australia, including a surge in employment change and a lower-than-expected unemployment rate, likely strengthened the Australian Dollar (AUD) against other currencies, potentially leading to gains in the AUD/USD currency pair.
China's Monetary Policy Stability and Positive China-Australia Relations Boost AUD Confidence
On the China front, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) maintaining its interest rate at 3.45% suggests stability in China's monetary policy, influencing investor sentiment towards the Australian Dollar (AUD). Additionally, the positive tone from the meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Australia's Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong, highlighting the strong potential and positive trajectory of China-Australia relations, could bolster confidence in the AUD.
US Interest Rate Expectations and Economic Data Impact AUD/USD Exchange Rate
On the US front, the value of the US dollar didn't continue its recent rise and fell on Thhursday. This drop happened because the Federal Reserve announced a plan to cut interest rates three times this year. This could lead to a relative strength in the Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD), causing the AUD/USD pair to remain higher.
On the data front, US Building Permits for February increased to 1.518 million, surpassing the expected 1.495 million and the prior figure of 1.489 million. Meanwhile, the housing Starts also saw a rise to 1.521 million from the previous 1.374 million, beating the anticipated 1.425 million. However, the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March dipped to 76.5 from 76.9, contrary to expectations of no change.
Hence, the positive data on building permits and housing starts might influence the Fed's interest rate decision by indicating strong economic activity.
AUD/USD - Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair experienced a notable uptick in the March 21 trading session, marking a 0.62% rise to settle at 0.66257. This movement signifies a resurgence in bullish sentiment, yet the currency pair encounters a pivotal juncture at the 0.6631 pivot point. Resistance levels at 0.6649, 0.6666, and 0.6686 delineate the potential ceilings for further gains, while support levels established at 0.6597, 0.6573, and 0.6552 provide floors to cushion any downward pressures.
Technical indicators suggest a nuanced picture; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 71 indicates a market that is veering into overbought territory, hinting at potential pullbacks. Moreover, the formation of a double-top pattern near the 0.6630 level suggests that the Australian dollar may struggle to sustain its upward momentum, with a close beneath this pivotal mark potentially ushering in a bearish correction phase.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 19, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Despite the risk-on market sentiment, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and remained under pressure due to the combination of negative factors, including the performance of domestic equity markets which experience thin trading activity due to market caution. However, the reason for its downward trend can also be attributed to the bullish US dollar, which has been gaining support on the back of the Fed's hawkish outlook. This signals confidence in a stronger US economy, which can lead to increased investment and optimism among traders and investors, positively impacting market sentiment.
Australian Economic Outlook and Impact on AUD/USD Pair
On the Australian front, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index maintained its upward trend, which was driven by gains in energy and real estate sectors. This uptick in the stock market lend some support to the Australian Dollar (AUD). However, Australia's economy grew less than expected in Q4 2023, sparking speculation about potential rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia later this year.
On the data front, the ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence index dipped slightly to 81.7, with Westpac predicting the central bank will likely keep its cash rate steady at 4.35%. ANZ Bank analysts foresee the Reserve Bank of Australia maintaining a cautious stance, although no interest rate adjustments are anticipated.
Therefore, the rise in the S&P/ASX 200 Index support the AUD, but concerns about Australia's economic growth and potential rate cuts could weigh on sentiment.
Chinese Economic Resilience and Impact on AUD/USD Pair
Another factor that could boost the AUD/USD pair was the positive Retail Sales and Industrial Production figures from China, which signal resilience in its economy, boosting global sentiment. This could indirectly benefit the AUD/USD pair, as Australia's economy heavily relies on Chinese demand for its exports, potentially strengthening the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar.
On the China data front, Retail Sales in February surpassed expectations, growing by 5.5% year-on-year, higher than the anticipated 5.2% and the previous 7.4%. Meanwhile, Industrial Production also exceeded forecasts, rising by 7.0% year-on-year, compared to the expected 5.0% and the prior 6.8%. These positive figures indicate resilience in the world's second-largest economy, suggesting potential support for global sentiment.
US Economic Update and Impact on AUD/USD Pair
On the US front, the upward trend in the US dollar, backed by the hawkish Fed outlook, was seen as a key factor that could cap gains in the AUD/USD pair. However, the probability of a rate cut in March is low at 1.0%, increasing to 8.7% in May.
On the data front, the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March declined to 76.5 from 76.9, defying expectations of no change. Industrial Production edged up by 0.1% in February, contrary to the expected flat reading, but an improvement from the previous month's decline. The Core Producer Price Index held steady at 2.0% year-over-year in February, exceeding the expected 1.9%. US PPI rose by 1.6% year-over-year and 0.6% month-over-month, surpassing forecasts, suggesting heightened inflationary pressures. Therefore, the strengthening US dollar, supported by a hawkish Fed outlook, may limit gains for the AUD/USD pair.
AUD/USD - Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair faced a downturn, marking a 0.44% decrease to 0.65217. This movement places the pair in a delicate position as it navigates through significant technical levels. The currency faces its pivot point at 0.6551, suggesting a critical juncture for future price action. Resistance levels are staged at 0.6573, 0.6596, and 0.6624, providing potential barriers to upward movements. Conversely, immediate support at 0.6520, followed by further supports at 0.6479 and 0.6450, illustrates key levels where the pair might find a floor.
The technical outlook is further compounded by an RSI indicator at 26, indicating a strong bearish momentum and potential overselling conditions. The appearance of a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern below the 0.6550 level underscores the selling pressure, suggesting the likelihood of a continued downtrend. Additionally, the 50-day EMA at 0.6574 acts as a near-term resistance level, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Given these conditions, a cautious approach is recommended for traders, with a proposed sell entry below 0.65368. The suggested take profit level at 0.64828 and a stop loss at 0.65718 aim to manage risk while capitalizing on the pair's current bearish trend.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD experiences a decline to 0.65217, hinting at continued bearish momentum with immediate support and resistance levels in focus.
- Strong bearish sentiment indicated by RSI at 26 and a bearish engulfing pattern below the 0.6550 pivot point.
- Recommended selling strategy below 0.65368 with targets and stop loss levels set to capitalize on the bearish outlook.
The AUD/USD pair faced a downturn, marking a 0.44% decrease to 0.65217. This movement places the pair in a delicate position as it navigates through significant technical levels. The currency faces its pivot point at 0.6551, suggesting a critical juncture for future price action. Resistance levels are staged at 0.6573, 0.6596, and 0.6624, providing potential barriers to upward movements. Conversely, immediate support at 0.6520, followed by further supports at 0.6479 and 0.6450, illustrates key levels where the pair might find a floor.
The technical outlook is further compounded by an RSI indicator at 26, indicating a strong bearish momentum and potential overselling conditions. The appearance of a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern below the 0.6550 level underscores the selling pressure, suggesting the likelihood of a continued downtrend. Additionally, the 50-day EMA at 0.6574 acts as a near-term resistance level, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Given these conditions, a cautious approach is recommended for traders, with a proposed sell entry below 0.65368. The suggested take profit level at 0.64828 and a stop loss at 0.65718 aim to manage risk while capitalizing on the pair's current bearish trend. (edited)
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.65368
Take Profit – 0.64828
Stop Loss – 0.65718
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$540/ -$350
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$54/ -$35