Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) reached a new all-time high of $3,045 on Wednesday. However, the strong bullish bias was fueled by rising geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.
Moreover, investors turned to gold as a safe-haven asset after Turkish authorities arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a key rival of President Tayyip Erdogan, on corruption and terrorism-related charges. This political tensions added to global concerns, increasing demand for gold as a secure investment.
Geopolitical Tensions Rise as US-Russia Talks Fail to Secure Ceasefire
Apart from this, the gains were further bolstered by a key phone call between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two leaders agreed to a temporary 30-day pause in attacks on energy infrastructure, but they did not reach any major ceasefire agreement in the Ukraine conflict.
In the meantime, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed the talks, stating that any negotiations without Ukraine’s involvement would not be effective. This ongoing geopolitical uncertainty has increased investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Fed Policy Decision and Economic Concerns Keep Gold in Focus
On the US front, the Fed is set to announce its interest rate decision and release updated economic projections during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Traders are closely monitoring this event for clues about future policy moves. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 99% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates steady at 4.25-4.50%, while the probability of a rate cut in June stands at 64.8%.
Although expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates could limit gold’s upside, worries about a possible US economic slowdown and Trump’s proposed tariff policies are keeping demand for the precious metal strong.
Gold’s Long-Term Rally Faces Uncertainty Amid Geopolitical and Economic Shifts
Despite gold’s record-breaking surge, some analysts warn that its long-term bullish momentum may not be guaranteed. However, the temporary pause in attacks between Russia and Ukraine has slightly reduced risk sentiment, which could limit further gains.
At the same time, data from Bank of America shows large outflows from US equities, suggesting some investors are shifting their focus. Looking ahead, gold’s movement will rely on the Fed’s decisions and the ongoing geopolitical situation.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is maintaining its upward trajectory, trading around $3,038.86, as investors remain cautious ahead of key economic events.
The metal is consolidating above the pivot point at $3,036.51, suggesting strong buyer interest at this level. Immediate resistance stands at $3,051.92, followed by $3,062.42, where a breakout could trigger further gains toward the $3,074.10 mark.
On the downside, support at $3,027.81 is keeping short-term pullbacks in check. A breach of this level could expose gold to further downside pressure toward $3,015.97 and $3,006.15. However, the 50-day EMA at $2,996.75 reinforces the broader bullish trend, offering dynamic support.
Gold’s recent price action suggests that traders are awaiting a catalyst, possibly from upcoming Federal Reserve statements or shifting macroeconomic conditions.
If gold holds above $3,036, buyers may push prices toward the $3,052 mark in the short term, making a case for a bullish breakout. However, a drop below $3,026 could invite selling pressure, leading to a potential retest of key support levels.
For now, traders should watch for a break above $3,051.92 to confirm continued upside momentum. Meanwhile, a sustained move below $3,036.51 could signal weakness, increasing the likelihood of a short-term pullback.
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