GBP/USD Price Analysis – February 24, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The GBP/USD pair is currently trading at $1.2023, which represents a 0.08% increase over the last 24 hours. Although the pair is trading slightly higher, there remains some uncertainty in the pricing action surrounding the dollar. Despite this, the pound has managed to make modest gains against the dollar.
The Impact of the US Economy on USD: Trends and Analysis
The release of mixed US economic indicators has caused the US dollar to fluctuate between losses and gains. The dollar index (DXY), which measures the dollar against six major peers, decreased by 0.07% to 104.52.
On the one hand, Q4 GDP came in at 2.7%, which was lower than the expected 2.9%, and Q3's 3.2%, suggesting that the economy was slowing more quickly than anticipated. This raised concerns that rising borrowing costs may be dampening growth and suggested that the US Federal Reserve may adopt a less aggressive stance, which would be negative for the USD.
On the other hand, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, Core PCE Prices, showed signs of price stickiness in Q4 by coming in at 4.3%, which was higher than the expected 3.9% but still below Q3's 4.7%. This could prompt the Federal Reserve to take a more hawkish stance to combat inflation, which would be positive for the US Dollar.
UK Consumer Confidence: Latest Trends and Insights
According to a report on February 23, GfK's consumer confidence indicator increased by seven points to a minus 38, higher than the forecasted -43. This marked a 10-month high, but it was still very close to the historic lows caused by the cost-of-living issue. Additionally, it was the fastest growth rate since March 2021.
In February, UK household confidence reached its highest level in nearly two years as indications surfaced that the worst period of inflation in four decades would ease.
However, this suggests that spending is likely to continue, which could concern the Bank of England as it decides how much to increase interest rates in its fight against inflation. The actual GfK Consumer Confidence figure came in higher than expected, which benefitted the GBP.
MPC Member Catherine Mann Addresses Interest Rates and Inflation
On February 23, External BOE MPC Member Catherine Mann stated that interest rates in the UK must continue to rise in order to prevent inflation from persisting for too long. Mann, a well-known hawkish member, supported further tightening at upcoming meetings and ruled out the possibility of a pivot in the bank's monetary policy.
As a result, the GBP saw a slight increase in value as another hawkish statement from the BoE's Mann supported the currency.
GBP/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.1980 1.2064
1.1944 1.2112
1.1897 1.2147
Pivot Point: 1.2028
GBP/USD – Technical Outlook
The GBP/USD pair is currently trading sideways, maintaining a narrow range between the $1.1990 and $1.2075 levels. On the 2-hour timeframe, a symmetrical triangle pattern has formed, indicating investor indecision and causing Sterling to trade within a tight range.
If the pair breaks above the $1.2075 mark, it may reach resistance levels of $1.2145 or $1.2220. However, the RSI and MACD indicators are still showing a downtrend, and the 50-day simple moving average is holding steady around the $1.2050 level.
If the pair breaks below the $1.1990 mark, it could lead to a bearish trend, with the Sterling potentially dropping to $1.1920.
Later today, market attention will be on a speech by MPC Member Tenreyro and US New Home Sales.
Related:
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – February 23, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P500 stock market index is currently trading at $3,991.05, down 0.16% within the last 24 hours. The index is experiencing a decline as investors grow increasingly apprehensive about potential aggressive interest rate increases, following the release of positive US economic data in recent times.
Impact of Hawkish FOMC Minutes on SPX
The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes revealed that the officials are prepared to continue raising interest rates in order to curb the increasing inflationary pressures. The majority of Fed policymakers believed that a 25 basis point hike was appropriate, while only a few supported a 50bp rate increase to control the rising inflation.
Furthermore, the hawkish stance of the Fed minutes was supported by the fact that several members believed there was a high likelihood of a recession in 2023. As a result, the S&P 500 is falling as the Fed's indication of a willingness to raise rates, in the long run, has raised concerns about inflation.
Geopolitical Concerns Weigh on S&P 500
Russian President Vladimir Putin recently met with Chinese diplomat Wang Yi in Moscow. The two officials vowed to strengthen relations between Russia and China, stating that their close relationship in the economy, politics, and culture is not subject to outside criticism.
However, the close ties between China and Russia have raised geopolitical concerns, especially with the US opposing such actions.
The ongoing conflict between the US and China has also fueled new concerns about the Ukraine-Russia war. As a result, the S&P 500 has continued to decline amid growing geopolitical worries.
Economic Warnings from Walmart and Home Depot
The retail sector may face a challenging year ahead, as indicated by the outlooks of Walmart and Home Depot. Walmart reported better-than-expected earnings in the Holiday quarter on February 21, citing cost-conscious consumers seeking lower-priced food, gifts, and home products.
Home Depot, which also announced its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on the same day, gave similar guidance. The home improvement company anticipates flat same-store sales as consumers limit spending due to increasing inflation and interest rates.
The negative outlooks from both retailers have contributed to a drop in the S&P 500, adding to concerns about the rapid rise in interest rates and high inflation.
S&P500 Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
3969.98 4005.98
3957.84 4029.84
3933.98 4041.98
Pivot Point: 3993
S&P500 – Technical Outlook
From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 (SPX) is currently trading bearish, having dropped to the $3,990 level. It has broken an upward channel at the $4,100 level, which has strengthened the downtrend so far.
SPX's current support level is at $3,950, which is also supported by a double-bottom pattern. A break below this support level may cause the S&P 500 to drop further toward the $3,885 mark.
On the other hand, the resistance level remains at the $4,000 or $4,075 mark. Today's release of the US Preliminary GDP is highly anticipated and could significantly impact the pricing of the US stock markets.
Related:
GOLD Price Analysis – February 23, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The XAU/USD pair is currently trading at approximately $1,820, and following the recent release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, the price of gold has entered a downward trend, experiencing a sell-off.
Investors are closely monitoring the market for any potential signs of economic recovery, which could further impact the price of gold. While the XAU/USD pair has experienced a recent decline, it remains to be seen how future economic developments will shape its trajectory.
As the market continues to evolve, it will be important to keep a close eye on any shifts in the XAU/USD pair's price, as well as any relevant market indicators or economic data that could impact its movement.
US Dollar Strengthens
The US dollar has strengthened recently as a result of positive economic reports indicating the strength of the American economy. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has increased to $104.52.
Expectations of a 50 basis point rate hike have also contributed to the dollar's rise, although the US Treasury Yield has remained relatively stable. The US 10-Year Treasury is currently at 3.92%, down 0.003 in the past 24 hours.
The Federal Reserve's comments about the possibility of rising interest rates have increased the opportunity cost of owning gold, which is a non-yielding asset. As a result, the price of gold has been affected, with recent news of the FOMC minutes accelerating a sell-off and causing the gold price to trend downward.
Fed Meeting Minutes Show Hawkish Stance
The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its latest Monetary Policy Meeting on February 22, revealing that all participants agreed that more rate increases are necessary to meet the inflation target.
According to Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams, the Fed is committed to achieving a 2% inflation rate in the coming years. The hawkish Fed minutes were further strengthened by comments indicating that some participants supported a 50 basis point rate hike and that some members believed a recession could occur in 2023.
The likelihood of prolonged rate increases, as indicated by the hawkish Fed minutes, is putting pressure on the price of gold.
China and Russia Strengthen Strategic Partnership Amid Geopolitical Concerns
Wang Yi, China's top diplomat, met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow to reinforce the close ties between the two countries just before the one-year anniversary of the start of the Ukrainian War. Wang Yi declared they were prepared to strengthen their strategic partnership with Russia and stated that their relations would not suffer from pressure from outside nations. Putin emphasized the importance of working together with China and expressed optimism about Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow.
Geopolitical tensions over China and Russia have heightened, causing a rush to safety and boosting the US Dollar while weighing down on XAU/USD.
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1817 1840
1809 1854
1795 1862
Pivot Point: 1832
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
On Thursday, gold bounced off the support level of $1,820 and formed a bullish engulfing candle, indicating a bullish bias. The immediate resistance for gold is at the $1,835 or $1,845 marks, levels that are extended by a double top pattern.
Although the RSI and MACD indicators are still in the sell zone, the MACD is forming smaller histograms, indicating a weaker selling bias. Additionally, the 50-day simple moving average is around $1,835, which may act as a hurdle to the upside.
Market participants are closely watching the US GDP figures, which are due to come out at 1:30 pm (GMT) today. Strong US GDP figures typically weigh on gold prices.
Related:
EUR/USD Price Analysis – February 23, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.0623, representing a low point in comparison to the previous day's range. This dip comes after three consecutive days of traders selling the pair short, suggesting a bearish sentiment in the market. It is worth noting that factors such as economic data, central bank decisions, and geopolitical events can all impact the currency pair's value and direction in the short and long term.
German CPI Data on the Horizon
Recent figures show that German consumer prices rose by 1.0% in February, following a decrease of 0.8% in the previous month. This led to a total increase of 8.7% in the yearly total, surpassing January's gain of 8.6%.
The German IFO Business Climate Index rose from 90.2 in January to 91.1 in February. However, the Current Economic Assessment decreased to 93.9 points in February, compared to 94.1 points in January and an expected 95.0 points.
Investors are now anticipating the final year-to-year CPI data, which is scheduled for release on Thursday, February 23, to gauge market sentiment. If the data exceeds expectations, it may further support the ECB's hawkish outlook and potentially drive up the value of the EUR.
US Federal Reserve Officials Discuss Rate Hikes to Meet Inflation Targets
According to the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), all participants agreed that rate hikes are necessary to meet the inflation target.
On February 22, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard stressed the importance of stabilizing inflation towards 2% this year. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams also noted that price stability is crucial, and the Fed is focused on achieving the 2% target over the coming years. A few participants even supported a 50 basis points (bps) rate hike.
The US Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed that officials are committed to taking a more gradual approach to raising interest rates in order to effectively manage inflation, which caused the dollar to rise. As a result, the dollar index increased by 0.40% to reach 104.57, although it dropped off from the day's high.
EUR/USD Trends Lower as Market Awaits US Q4 Prelim GDP Data
Later in the day, a revised figure for US fourth-quarter GDP is expected. If this figure provides further indications of economic resilience, it may give the Fed greater flexibility to continue raising interest rates. The anticipated annualized GDP figure is expected to remain unchanged at 2.9%.
If the US GDP figures turn out to be positive, it may give a boost to the US Dollar Index (DXY). However, it would be premature to predict the impact of this on the pair at this time.
EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.0582 1.0647
1.0558 1.0688
1.0517 1.0712
Pivot Point: 1.0623
EUR/USD – Technical Outlook
The EUR/USD pair has broken through the double bottom support area at the $1.0625 level, and is now trending lower towards the next support level at $1.0580.
The violation of the descending triangle pattern is usually a signal of a strong bearish market, historically keeping the pair in a bearish trend. However, the EUR/USD pair is showing signs of a potential rebound, as it pulls back to retest the major resistance level of $1.0625.
The RSI and MACD indicators are still indicating a downtrend, along with the 50-day simple moving average holding around the $1.06560 level.
On the upside, if the $1.0665 level is broken, the EUR/USD pair may move toward the $1.0685 or $1.0725 levels. The market will be closely monitoring the Prelim GDP q/q from the US to determine future trends.
Related:
EUR/USD Analysis – February 22, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.0657, reflecting a modest gain of 0.10% over the past 24 hours. This positive movement can be attributed to the rise in market players' risk appetite, leading to a recovery in the value of the currency pair.
EUR/USD Awaits Fed Meeting Minutes
The US dollar has maintained its stability this week following the release of the latest economic data which shows that the US economy is performing better than expected. However, the US Dollar Index started to give back some of its previous gains after the PMI report was released, and the DXY dropped to its low point of 104.02 for the day.
The US DXY is currently facing challenges in its attempt to recover from a recent corrective move, despite the renewed risk-on sentiment among investors. Meanwhile, market participants are eagerly awaiting the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes.
In addition, the latest data gives reason for the Fed to pursue a more aggressive Fed rate path. Investors are expecting the Fed to continue raising interest rates for an extended period to reach the desired level of inflation.
The EUR/USD may face increased selling pressure due to today's main news events, which are the FOMC member speeches and the release of the Fed meeting minutes.
ECB Plans to Raise Interest Rates Despite Headline Inflation Slowdown
Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), stated that inflation in the Eurozone is decreasing. However, she reiterated the ECB's plan to raise the key rates by 50 basis points (bps) at the upcoming policy meeting. Lagarde also indicated that the Eurozone is not currently experiencing a wage-price spiral.
Additionally, the Eurozone is scheduled to release the Final HICP Inflation figure for January on February 23, and it might be revised upwards. This development may strengthen the possibility of the European Central Bank raising interest rates by 50 basis points the following month. Moreover, it may reinforce the belief that the ECB will need to implement further measures beyond March.
Therefore, the data released this week could potentially benefit the Euro bulls.
EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.0626 1.0686
1.0602 1.0722
1.0566 1.0746
Pivot Point: 1.0662
EUR/USD – Technical Outlook
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading within a narrow range of $1.0665, with support at the $1.0640 level. A downward movement may occur if the immediate support level of $1.0625 is breached, leading to additional selling opportunities until the $1.0615 level.
The RSI and MACD indicators are indicating a downtrend, but the upward trendline is providing support for the pair at the $1.0640 level. The formation of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 2-hour timeframe suggests that investors are indecisive, possibly due to the FOMC meeting minutes that are set to be released later today.
On the upside, if the $1.0665 level is broken, the EUR/USD pair may move toward the $1.0685 or $1.0725 levels. The market will be closely monitoring the FOMC meeting minutes to determine future trends.
Related:
GOLD Price Analysis – February 22, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
XAU/USD is currently trading at $1,837, reflecting a 0.10% increase over the last 24 hours. Despite concerns among market players ahead of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, the price of gold has attempted to break over $1,837.
DXY, US Treasury, and Gold: Current Market Analysis
The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to an intraday low of 104.02 as the PMI report was released, causing the US Dollar Index to give back some of its earlier gains.
Additionally, the 10-year Treasury Yield for the US is now at 3.939, reflecting a 0.36% decline over the past 24 hours.
While the increase in the value of the US dollar was momentarily halted, the price of gold gained momentum and rebounded to the upside.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Meeting Minutes in Focus
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is set to release the minutes from its recent policy meeting on February 22, during which the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reviewed the monetary policy. It will be crucial to determine whether any officials felt the Fed should reconsider raising interest rates by 50 basis points.
A report released on February 21 revealed that the US services PMI rose from 46.8 to 50.5 in February, exceeding the expected increase of 47.2. This may renew expectations for a 50 basis point raise at the next meeting, which could significantly weigh on gold prices.
Geopolitical Tensions: Impact on Financial Markets and Investments
In an interview on February 19, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that US information suggests that China may be considering providing weapons and ammunition to Russia. Additionally, Russia announced that it would continue its military operations in Ukraine while suspending its nuclear weapons deal with the US.
On February 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed both chambers of parliament before delivering his state of the country speaking to the Federal Assembly. He stated that their responsibility is to expand the economy, which increases geopolitical tensions around Ukraine.
In times of high global uncertainty, investors often turn to gold as a safe-haven investment when the US treasuries and DXY are low. Therefore, growing global instability may provide significant support for gold prices.
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1830 1843
1823 1851
1816 1857
Pivot Point: 1837
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
Gold is presently trading within a descending channel, with resistance close to $1,840 and support close to $1,830. A double top pattern on the 2-hour timeframe is serving as a significant resistance near $1,845, and a break above this level could potentially result in further upside for gold. Immediate resistance levels are found at $1,860 or $1,870.
The RSI and MACD indicators are both currently indicating a selling zone, suggesting a bearish bias in the market. However, the continuation of the uptrend is dependent on whether or not gold is able to break through the $1,840 resistance level.
In the event of a downward movement, gold's immediate support level is near $1,830, followed by $1,820. Today is an important day as market participants will be closely monitoring the release of the FOMC meeting minutes to gain insight into future trends in the financial markets. The minutes are scheduled to be released at 7:00 PM (GMT) today.
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BTC/USD Price Analysis – February 22, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
BTC/USD is trading at $24,080, reflecting an almost 3% decrease over the past 24 hours. While the price movement of BTC is lower for the day, there is still a presence of strength in the long run.
Analysis of Crypto Fund Flows Reveals Negative Sentiment and Impact of Regulatory Actions
On February 20, Coinshares issued a blog post titled Digital Asset Coinshares released a post titled "Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report" on February 20, reporting high outflows of $62 million in the middle of last week, indicating negative sentiment towards cryptocurrencies. During the bearish week, Bitcoin had the highest outflows of $24.8 million.
The crackdown on cryptocurrency enterprises by regulators in the US was a significant factor in the outflow of funds from crypto assets. The New York Financial Regulation ordered Paxos to halt minting new BUSD stablecoins, and Kraken was ordered to cease its staking program and pay a $30 million settlement fee for violating US securities law. Additionally, a potential SEC regulatory action against a stablecoin issuer added to the negative sentiment.
However, on Friday, February 17, a $30 million inflow was reported, reducing the damage caused by the outflows. Overall, crypto assets had net flows of $32 million last week, ending a six-week record of inflow.
This finding highlights how institutional investors react to regulatory actions and how such actions can impact the entire cryptocurrency market and the BTC/USD exchange rate.
US Inflation Rises and Fuels Expectations of Aggressive Fed Rate Path, Adding Selling Pressure on Bitcoin
On February 21, a report revealed that the US services PMI rose from 46.8 to 50.5 in February, exceeding the anticipated increase of 47.2. This data provides the Federal Reserve with a reason to pursue a more aggressive rate path, particularly since the services sector constitutes over two-thirds of the US economy.
Investors are expecting the Fed to continue raising interest rates for a longer period to achieve the desired level of inflation, which has caused the dollar to appreciate, with DXY currently at 104.13. Consequently, the private sector's higher-than-expected PMI data has intensified concerns about the Fed's policies.
With the focus on the Fed meeting minutes and FOMC member discussions today, BTC/USD may face additional selling pressure.
BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
24037 25022
23615 25585
23052 26007
Pivot Point: 24600
BTC/USD – Technical Outlook
On the technical front, the BTC/USD pair has breached a significant support level of $24,500, triggering a downward movement toward the $23,900 mark. The double bottom pattern has now transformed this level into a major support for BTC.
In the 2-hour timeframe, the BTC/USD pair has formed an ascending triangle pattern, with its upward trendline providing support near the $24,000 level. However, if Bitcoin falls below the $24,000 mark, its next support level will be at the $23,400 mark. The RSI and MACD indicators are both in a selling zone, adding selling pressure to Bitcoin.
On the upside, Bitcoin's immediate resistance is at $24,500, and an increase in buying pressure and a breakout above this level would expose BTC to the next resistance level at $25,200.
Today is a significant day, and the market will be closely watching the FOMC meeting minutes to determine future trends in the financial markets. The FOMC meeting minutes are due to be released today at 7:00 PM (GMT), so it is crucial to stay focused.
Related:
EUR/USD Analysis – February 21, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at $1.0665, reflecting a decline of 0.16% in the last 24 hours. Contrary to the common narrative of Eurozone weakness, the recent decline in the pair can be attributed to the strength of the US dollar over the past few weeks.
Eurozone PMI in Highlights
The EUR/USD is expected to have a busy day as investors focus on the preliminary private sector PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone for February.
The flash PMI figures, set to be released on Tuesday, February 21, will be closely watched as they will provide insights into the current state of the Eurozone economy, which unexpectedly expanded in the last quarter of 2022.
According to analysts, the Manufacturing PMI for February is expected to rise to 49.4, up from the previous reading of 48.8. Additionally, the Services PMI is anticipated to increase from 50.8 to 51.0, and a better-than-expected PMI result could benefit the Euro.
Investors are also anticipating a 50 basis point increase in the ECB interest rate in March. Positive PMI results may increase market anticipation and reduce monetary policy divergence, which could be beneficial for the ECB.
Anticipation Builds as Market Awaits Today's US PMI Report
Today, the February Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the United States is set to release. Traders are eagerly waiting for the data to be released. As per the consensus, the Services PMI is expected to come in at 47.3, which is higher than the previous reading of 46.8.
The PMI statistics are likely to have an impact on the Dollar, and there is a possibility that the US Dollar may continue to strengthen.
US Interest Rates: Their Impact on the Economy
The US Federal Reserve expressed its concern about inflation and increased interest rates a few weeks ago. Traders need to be cautious and keep an eye on the GDP data from the United States on Thursday, February 23, as this report's result may trigger volatility.
Last week's US retail sales data was also stronger than expected. If this week's GDP growth estimates are also high, the US Fed could use this data as a reason to continue raising interest rates.
The EUR/USD pair could experience more bearish selling if the US central bank raises interest rates by another 0.50% to 0.75%. However, a weaker-than-expected US GDP reading might support market sentiment and lead to a positive movement for the EUR/USD.
EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.0668 1.0701
1.0653 1.0719
1.0634 1.0734
Pivot Point: 1.0686
EUR/USD – Technical Outlook
Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair traded in a narrow range of 1.0660 to 1.0700 and remained relatively stable due to the US holidays. The price settled below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), creating negative pressure and indicating the possibility of a continued downward trend toward the target level of 1.0515.
Therefore, the bearish scenario is still valid on an intraday basis, and any bullish movement would require a break above the 1.0745 resistance level. Until then, the negative trend is dominating the market.
For today, the EUR/USD pair's trading range is between support at 1.0570 and resistance at 1.0725. The US FOMC meeting minutes will remain in highlights to drive further price action in the market.
Related:
GOLD Price Analysis – February 21, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at 1,842 and has had a slightly bearish start to the trading week. The gold price is currently struggling to make significant moves and is hovering around the $1,840 level.
Federal Reserve's Monetary Policies to Shape the US Economy
The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key factor affecting gold prices. There has been speculation that the central bank may soon end its quantitative easing measures, but recent inflation data has raised questions about whether inflation is actually declining. With high US inflation and a strong labor market, the Fed's actions are under close scrutiny.
Investors are now awaiting the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on February 22 for further guidance. Market participants are closely monitoring inflation forecasts and monetary policy indicators for March.
Today, the main focus of the discussion will be the FOMC meeting minutes, which could have an impact on the trading price of XAU/USD.
Understanding US PMI: A Key Indicator for the Health of the US Economy
Traders are eagerly awaiting the first readings of the February Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the US. The consensus forecast is that the PMI will rise to 47.4, up from 46.9 in the previous report. Additionally, the Services PMI may be reported at 47.3, an improvement from the previous reading of 46.8.
The PMI figures are expected to have an impact on the value of the US dollar. It is possible that the dollar will continue to strengthen, which could cause a decline in the XAU/USD exchange rate.
US Dollar Index and US Treasury: Understanding the Current Trend
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard made comments indicating their support for more rate increases at the upcoming FOMC policy meeting. This caused the US Dollar Index (DXY) to recover its day's high at 104.02 and US Treasury yields to rise. Benchmark US Treasury rates have recently climbed to their highest level in more than three months, trading above 3.82%.
Higher profits from the US Dollar have an adverse effect on dollar-denominated commodities such as gold, as international buyers have to pay more to purchase them. The gold market is also influenced by interest rate movements since they affect the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals.
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1837 1847
1832 1852
1827 1857
Pivot Point: 1842
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
Gold is currently trading within a descending channel, with resistance near $1,845 and support near $1,820. A double top pattern on the 2-hour timeframe is acting as a strong resistance near $1,845, and a breakout above this level could lead to further upside for gold. Immediate resistance levels are at $1,860 or $1,870.
Both the RSI and MACD indicators are currently showing a buying zone, suggesting a bullish bias in the market. However, the continuation of the uptrend is dependent on whether or not gold can break through the $1,845 resistance level. In case of a downward movement, gold's immediate support level is near $1,830, followed by $1,820.
Related:
BTC/USD Price Analysis – February 21, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
In the last 24 hours, BTC/USD has risen by 2.50%, currently trading at $24,819.0. Over the past week, its value has increased by 14%. The Bitcoin market has been on an upward trend and has shown consistent signs of bullish behavior.
Understanding Hong Kong's Potential Crypto License System And How It Could Impact Investors
The Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) launched a consultation on February 20 for its proposed guidelines regarding virtual asset trading platforms. Under the new proposal, anyone or any company offering services related to cryptocurrencies must obtain a license from the SFC. Exchanges and service providers will need to prepare to cease operations in Hong Kong if they do not intend to pursue a license.
The new regime requires all crypto trading platforms to review and revise their policies and controls to align with the new rule. Additionally, the regime sets out several specifications for cryptocurrency exchanges and service providers.
The SFC has requested public comments on its newly proposed licensing system for cryptocurrency exchanges, which is expected to take effect in June 2023. The feedback period is open until March 31.
This move signals Hong Kong's openness towards digital asset investors and users, which is positive news for the BTC/USD and the overall cryptocurrency market.
Paxos To Face Charges: What Does This Mean For Crypto Investors?
On February 13, the New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) instructed Paxos to stop producing more Binance USD (BUSD) stablecoins. In compliance with the NYDFS directive and in close coordination with them, Paxos will discontinue the issuance of new BUSD tokens as of February 21.
Additionally, Paxos has confirmed that it received a notification from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) indicating that it may take action regarding the classification of BUSD as a security. The SEC has been evaluating whether Paxos should have registered the issuance of BUSD with the SEC under federal securities laws, and is considering legal action. However, the SEC has not yet filed any formal charges against Paxos.
The cryptocurrency markets were nervous after US authorities increased their regulatory oversight of digital currencies. However, despite the US government's tighter regulatory stance, the crypto markets and BTC/USD saw gains.
BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
24094 25341
23357 25851
22847 26588
Pivot Point: 24604
BTC/USD – Technical Outlook
Bitcoin's technical outlook hasn't changed a lot as BTC has been trading in a narrow range between $23,700 and $25,200. The immediate resistance level for the BTC/USD pair is currently at $25,200, and a break above this level could push the BTC price toward $26,000.
Leading technical indicators, such as RSI and MACD, are showing divergence, which can indicate indecision among investors. The RSI is currently above 50, in a buying zone, while the MACD is forming histograms below 0, in a sell zone.
On the downside, Bitcoin's immediate support is at $23,750. If the price drops below this level, the next support for BTC would be at $22,850, determined by the 50% Fibonacci retracement mark.
The focus later this week will be on the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, which could potentially drive BTC price action.