USDCHF week ahead: US PCE and GDP data, 2026-05-25

How last week left USDCHF

USDCHF opened Monday at 0.78729 and closed Friday at 0.78488, shedding 241 pips or 0.31% across the week. The pair topped out at 0.79064 on Wednesday before reversing lower into the Friday close.

What this week is about

Thursday brings the single most important event for USDCHF: US Core PCE Price Index at 12:30 UTC, expected at 0.3% month-on-month matching the previous print. Core PCE remains the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, and any deviation from consensus will drive immediate volatility in the dollar.

The same release window includes prelim US GDP for Q1, forecast to jump to 2.1% from 0.7% previously. Additional US data lands throughout the week: Consumer Confidence on Tuesday at 91.9 consensus, durable goods orders and new home sales on Thursday. Monday sees bank holidays across major centers including the US, Switzerland, and UK, creating thin liquidity conditions.

Scenarios for the week

If Core PCE prints above 0.3%, expect USDCHF to test the 0.7900 level from last week's highs. A hot inflation reading would reinforce Fed hawkishness and dollar strength. If PCE comes in at 0.2% or lower, the pair could revisit Friday's low near 0.78377. The GDP print adds another layer: a beat on the 2.1% forecast supports dollar bulls, while a miss would compound any PCE-driven weakness.

Positioning into the new week

Retail positioning shows 54.3% of traders long USDCHF versus 45.7% short as of Sunday morning. This modest long skew suggests the market leans slightly bullish on the dollar heading into the data, but without extreme conviction either way.

Levels to watch

The prior week's high at 0.79064 stands as the obvious resistance if US data beats expectations. Below, Friday's low at 0.78377 marks immediate support. The round 0.7900 level sits just above last week's peak and would be the next target on any sustained move higher. These are reference levels for context, not entry signals.

Byline: LHFX Research

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