USDCAD midweek: narrow range at 1.3813 ahead of quiet finish, 2026-05-25

Where USDCAD stands midweek

USDCAD closed Wednesday at 1.38126, up 10 pips from Monday's 1.38023 open. The pair has traced a tight 26-pip range this week, touching 1.38208 as the high and 1.37944 as the low.

What has driven price so far

The dollar-loonie has drifted in a narrow band with no major catalysts from either currency. Wednesday's only notable move came after the PBOC set its USD/CNY reference rate higher than expected, reminding markets of broader dollar strength versus commodity currencies.

What's still ahead

The economic calendar shows no high-impact releases for either USD or CAD through Friday. Without fresh data, USDCAD will likely track broader dollar flows and any shifts in oil prices. If crude pushes higher, the loonie could test support at 1.3794. If the dollar bid returns, 1.3821 becomes the obvious resistance.

Positioning right now

Current positioning sits at 51% long and 49% short as of Wednesday morning. This near-perfect balance reflects the lack of conviction in either direction midweek, with traders waiting for clearer signals before committing to directional bets.

The level that matters today

The pair hovers just below 1.3813, the midpoint of this week's range. If USDCAD can hold above 1.3810 into Thursday, the path to test Monday's high at 1.3820 opens up. A break below 1.3810 puts 1.3794 back in focus as the next obvious support.

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Byline: LHFX Research

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