USD/JPY trades at 159.359 after gaining 41 pips from Monday's open, with Tokyo inflation data and US GDP the key tests ahead.
USDTRY opened Monday at 45.52235 and closed Friday at 45.71656, gaining 194 pips or 0.4 percent. The pair traded a tight range near mid-45s with Thursday's high at 45.75413 marking the weekly peak.
The biggest risk event lands Thursday: US Core PCE Price Index at 12:30 GMT with consensus expecting 0.3 percent month-on-month. This is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and any deviation from forecast typically moves the dollar sharply across all pairs.
Monday brings widespread bank holidays across Europe, UK, and US markets which will thin liquidity. Wednesday features Australian CPI data and New Zealand's rate decision at 2.25 percent. Thursday also delivers US preliminary GDP at 2.1 percent forecast versus 0.7 percent prior.
If Core PCE prints above 0.3 percent, expect dollar strength to push USDTRY toward the 45.75 resistance from last week. A softer reading below 0.3 percent could see the pair test support near 45.50.
The RBNZ decision Wednesday carries secondary importance. If they signal further easing ahead, risk currencies including TRY could see pressure. Bank holidays Monday mean any gap moves could persist through European morning.
Last week's high at 45.75413 stands as immediate resistance, with 45.80 the next obvious round number above. Support sits at the 45.50 area near Monday's open, then 45.47261 which marked Wednesday's low. These are reference levels for context, not entry signals.
Byline: LHFX Research
Risk disclaimer. CFD trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. Leverage works both ways and can amplify losses beyond your initial deposit. The analysis above is general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. LHFX is regulated by the FSC Mauritius and the FSCA in South Africa. LHFX does not accept US persons.
EUR/USD sits at 1.16379 after grinding sideways for three days, with positioning nearly balanced at 51.6% long.
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ONYO LA HATARI
Biashara ya margin katika sarafu za kigeni, mali za kidijitali au bidhaa nyingine za nje ya soko kwa margin inabeba kiwango cha juu cha hatari na inaweza kutoendana na kila mtu. Tunakushauri uzingatie kwa makini kama biashara inakufaa kwa kuzingatia hali yako binafsi.
CFD ni vyombo tata na vinabeba hatari kubwa ya kupoteza fedha kutokana na leverage. Fikiria kama unaelewa jinsi CFD zinavyofanya kazi na kama unaweza kumudu hatari kubwa ya kupoteza fedha.
Kodi inaweza kulipwa kwa faida yoyote na unapaswa kutafuta ushauri huru kuhusu hali yako ya kodi.
