USD/JPY trades at 159.359 after gaining 41 pips from Monday's open, with Tokyo inflation data and US GDP the key tests ahead.
JPN225 opened Monday at 61657 and closed Friday at 63298, a gain of 1641 points or 2.7%. The index found support early in the week near 59286 before staging a four-day rally to close near the week's high.
The main event lands Tuesday when Australia releases CPI data at 01:30 UTC. The consensus expects monthly inflation to slow to 0.6% from 1.1%, with the annual pace easing to 4.4% from 4.6%. A surprise either way could ripple through regional risk assets given the RBA's focus on inflation persistence.
Thursday brings two critical US releases: Core PCE at 12:30 UTC (forecast 0.3% monthly) and preliminary Q1 GDP (forecast 2.1% annualized). Also watch the RBNZ decision Wednesday at 02:00 UTC, with rates expected to hold at 2.25%, and BOJ Governor Ueda's speech early Wednesday.
If Australian CPI comes in hotter than the 0.6% forecast, expect regional equity pressure as rate-cut hopes fade. A softer print below 0.5% could support risk-on flows into Japanese equities. For US data Thursday, GDP above 2.5% or Core PCE above 0.4% would signal persistent growth and inflation, potentially weighing on global indices. Below-consensus prints on both could fuel extension of last week's rally.
Current positioning shows 52.1% of traders long versus 47.9% short as of Sunday morning. This modest long skew suggests the market enters the week with cautious optimism after last week's gains, but without the extreme positioning that often precedes reversals.
The prior week's low at 59286 becomes first support if early weakness develops. Above, the round 64000 level sits just 702 points away and would mark a psychological resistance zone. The 61500 area, which acted as both support and resistance last week, offers a midpoint reference. These are reference levels for context, not entry signals.
Byline: LHFX Research
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EUR/USD sits at 1.16379 after grinding sideways for three days, with positioning nearly balanced at 51.6% long.
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