USD/JPY trades at 159.359 after gaining 41 pips from Monday's open, with Tokyo inflation data and US GDP the key tests ahead.
GER30 opened Monday at 23723.4 and closed Friday at 24795.5, a gain of 1072.1 points or 4.5%. The index pushed higher throughout the week despite some mid-week consolidation.
The week opens with bank holidays across Switzerland, France, Germany, the UK, and the US on Monday. Trading volumes will be significantly reduced, leaving the index vulnerable to unexpected moves on thin liquidity.
Thursday becomes the focal point with US Prelim GDP q/q at 12:30 UTC, expected at 2.1% versus 0.7% previously, and Core PCE Price Index m/m forecast at 0.3%. Australian CPI data hits Wednesday at 01:30 UTC with the yearly figure expected to cool to 4.4% from 4.6%.
If US GDP beats 2.1% Thursday while Core PCE stays at 0.3%, expect risk-on flows that could push GER30 toward the 25000 psychological level. If GDP disappoints or Core PCE runs hot, the index likely revisits support near last week's open around 24700.
Wednesday's Australian CPI could set the tone early. A cooler print supports global risk appetite and GER30 upside. A surprise uptick would pressure equities broadly, with GER30 potentially testing 24500.
Current sentiment shows 54.5% of positions are long versus 45.5% short as of Sunday morning. This modest long skew suggests traders are cautiously optimistic but not overwhelmingly bullish heading into the holiday-shortened week.
The prior week's high at 24947 sits just below the round 25000 level, making this zone obvious resistance. Support starts at Friday's close near 24795, then the week's opening level around 24700. Below that, last Monday's low at 23630.8 becomes relevant if selling accelerates. These are reference levels, not entry signals.
Byline: LHFX Research
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EUR/USD sits at 1.16379 after grinding sideways for three days, with positioning nearly balanced at 51.6% long.
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