USD/JPY trades at 159.359 after gaining 41 pips from Monday's open, with Tokyo inflation data and US GDP the key tests ahead.
AUDUSD opened at 0.71292 on Monday and closed Friday at 0.71266, shedding just 26 pips for a flat weekly finish. The pair spent most sessions in tight consolidation between 0.7080 and 0.7180.
Tuesday's Australian CPI release at 01:30 GMT dominates the calendar. Markets expect the headline print to slow to 4.4% year-over-year from 4.6%, with the monthly reading forecast at 0.6%. The trimmed mean measure, which the RBA watches most closely, is expected to hold steady at 0.3% month-over-month.
Beyond inflation, Thursday brings US Core PCE at 0.3% expected and preliminary GDP at 2.1% forecast. The RBNZ decision Wednesday morning could spill over if they surprise, though no change from 2.25% is expected. Multiple bank holidays Monday will thin liquidity in London and New York sessions.
If Australian CPI prints hotter than the 0.6% monthly forecast, expect immediate buying toward the 0.7180 area where last week topped. A cooler print could see sellers target 0.7080 and potentially the 0.7079 low from Tuesday. Thursday's US data creates a second volatility window. Core PCE above 0.3% would typically strengthen the dollar, pressuring AUDUSD back toward 0.7100.
Retail positioning shows 47.4% of traders are long AUDUSD while 52.6% hold shorts as of Sunday morning. This mild bearish skew suggests the market leans slightly defensive ahead of the inflation data, though not at extremes that would signal a contrarian opportunity.
The 0.7180 area capped three separate rallies last week and remains the obvious upside reference. Below, 0.7079 marks Tuesday's low and the week's floor. Round number 0.7100 sits between them as a natural pivot that could attract order flow if the pair starts moving. These are reference levels for context, not entry signals.
Byline: LHFX Research
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EUR/USD sits at 1.16379 after grinding sideways for three days, with positioning nearly balanced at 51.6% long.
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