Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair is trading weakly around 1.4380 during Tuesday’s early European session, pressured by Canadian Dollar (CAD) strength and shifting market sentiment.
Following stronger-than-expected Canadian labor market data for December, traders have adjusted their outlook on the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) rate cut trajectory.
Simultaneously, rising crude oil prices have bolstered the CAD, further weighing on the pair. With the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for December scheduled for release later on Tuesday, market participants await additional cues on the US Dollar (USD) outlook, which could influence the pair’s trajectory.
US Dollar Supported by Strong Economic Data and Hawkish Fed Outlook
On the US front, robust economic data is supporting a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) stance, limiting the USD’s downside.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ December Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed an increase of 256,000 jobs, the highest since March, alongside a decline in the Unemployment Rate to 4.1%.
These figures reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain higher interest rates through much of 2025.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are currently discounting the likelihood of a 25 basis points rate cut at the January 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with a probability of just 2.7%.
The USD’s resilience, driven by these factors, prevents a steeper decline in the USD/CAD pair, even as external pressures weigh on the Greenback’s performance.
Canadian Dollar Gains Support from Strong Domestic Data and Rising Oil Prices
The Canadian Dollar finds support from robust domestic data and favorable oil market conditions. Canada’s December labor market report revealed unexpected strength, with higher job creation reducing the likelihood of a BoC interest rate cut in January.
Reuters data indicates that expectations for a January 29 rate cut have dropped to 61%, down from 70% before the labor report’s release.
Moreover, crude oil prices have surged amid expanded US sanctions on Russian oil, providing a further boost to the CAD. As Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, higher oil prices directly enhance the CAD’s appeal, creating downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair.
This oil-driven momentum underscores the Loonie’s sensitivity to commodity market dynamics, which will likely remain a key driver of the pair in the near term.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.43825, up 0.03%, as the U.S. Dollar holds steady against the Canadian Dollar. The price hovers just above the pivot point at $1.43442, maintaining a cautiously bullish sentiment.
Immediate resistance is observed at $1.44631, followed by stronger hurdles at $1.45272 and $1.45861. On the downside, support lies at $1.42799, with additional levels at $1.42108 and $1.41342, marking critical thresholds for a potential retracement.
The 50-day EMA at $1.43861 provides dynamic resistance, reinforcing the importance of sustained momentum above the pivot point.
A successful break above $1.43442 could set the stage for further gains, targeting the immediate resistance zone at $1.44631. Conversely, a failure to hold above the pivot could lead to selling pressure, testing the $1.42799 support level.
The RSI indicates neutral to bullish momentum, suggesting a balanced market outlook but with an upside bias. Traders should keep an eye on U.S. and Canadian economic data, including oil prices, which heavily influence the Canadian Dollar’s movement.
The overall sentiment remains bullish, but a decisive move above $1.43861 is crucial for validating further gains.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – Jan 14, 2025
JOIN LHFX TODAY
24/7 live support, lightning fast withdrawals, guaranteed safe and reliable trading platforms with a true ECN broker.