Daily Price Outlook

The global market sentiment prolonged its upward rally on Thursday, maintaining a positive outlook as US policymakers made progress to avoid a potential default. Furthermore, the upbeat Chinese and US data further supported the market sentiment.

However, it is crucial to note that there is still concern among market participants due to upcoming important US employment and activity data and the Senate voting on the bill to extend the US debt ceiling. These factors have been causing cautiousness among optimistic investors in the market.

The S&P 500 Futures saw its first daily gains in four days and approached the 4,200 level. It rose by 0.05% to around 4,194. At the same time, the yields on the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bonds stabilized around 3.65% and 4.42%, respectively, after reaching their lowest points for the week in the previous decline.

Positive Market Sentiment as US House of Representatives Supports Measures to Avoid Government Default

Market sentiment has improved as the Republican-controlled House of Representatives in the US has shown support for measures to prevent a government default. Reuters said the House of Representatives voted 314-117 to pass the legislation. However, the bill will now proceed to the Senate, where it needs to be approved and sent to President Joe Biden before the Monday deadline.

Federal Reserve Likely to Keep Interest Rates Steady in June, Mixed US Data Shows

According to Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos, multiple Federal Reserve speakers and recently released mixed US data indicate that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will likely maintain interest rates at their current levels in June. This will impact the market as investors may see this as a sign that the central bank will continue its supportive monetary policy, which can help boost stock markets and risky assets.

Regarding data, US JOLTS Job Openings for April exceeded expectations at 10.103 million, compared to the forecasted 9.375 million and the previous figure of 9.745 million. However, the May Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index declined to 40.4 from the previous reading of 48.6, falling short of market forecasts at 47.0. While the US consumer sentiment gauge improved earlier in the week, the details were not impressive.

SPX Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

SPX S&P500 – Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 index is currently experiencing a mild bearish sentiment near the 4,180 level, unable to surpass the resistance at 4,215. In the four-hour timeframe, the SPX has formed a solitary doji candlestick pattern, suggesting a waning bullish trend and a growing impact from sellers.

Looking upwards, there is potential support around the 4,150 level, which is further validated by a trend line observed on the four-hour timeframe. Today’s approach involves closely monitoring the 4,150 level and considering selling positions if the price nears this level.

• The S&P 500 is currently experiencing volatility, with focus on US consumer confidence data.
• Resistance is observed around the 4210 level, forming a double top pattern.
• Support levels to watch are around 4175 and 4150, while a break above 4215 could lead to higher levels.

Good morning everyone!

The S&P 500 is currently experiencing some volatility as we enter the middle of the trading week. Today, the focus will be on the release of consumer confidence data from the US economy, which is expected to have an impact on the price action of the S&P 500.

Currently, the index is trading around the 4205 level and facing resistance around 4210. This level has now formed a double top pattern, indicating a potential reversal. The formation of bearish candlesticks below the 50-day exponential moving average further supports the possibility of a bearish continuation.

However, before we see a potential bearish continuation, there is a possibility of a minor correction in the S&P 500, with support expected around the 4175 level or even down to 4150. Today, it is important to monitor the 4215 level as it is likely to act as a pivot point.

Below this level, we can expect a bearish sentiment, while above it, a bullish sentiment may prevail. A break above the 4215 level could expose the S&P 500 to higher levels such as 4250 or even 4299. On the downside, key support levels are likely to be found around 4150 and 4103.

Let’s keep a close eye on these levels and observe the price action of the S&P 500 throughout the day.

SPX S&P500 – Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 4178

Stop Loss – 4131

Take Profit – 4250

Risk to Reward – 1 : 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$720/ -$470

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$72/ -$47

Daily Price Outlook

The global market sentiment continued its upward rally on Tuesday, maintaining a positive outlook. Investors reacted with optimism to the recent agreement in the US that aims to prevent a potential default.

This positive sentiment is bolstered by robust economic data from the US, indicating strength in the world’s largest economy. Despite worries about the impact of rising inflation on purchasing power, there is a hopeful outlook that the economy can avoid a recession.

The S&P 500 Futures, which indicate market expectations, show modest gains around 4,220, following a retreat from the yearly high seen the previous day.

Similarly, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has dropped by five basis points (bps) to 3.76%, while the two-year yield has reversed from an 11-week high and is showing its first daily loss since May 11, currently standing around 4.58%.

Markets in the US, Germany, Switzerland, and the UK were closed the previous day, so traders couldn’t react to the news of the US policymakers reaching an agreement to extend the debt ceiling until January 2025.

However, this sets the stage for a positive start to the trading week, as traders are hopeful that the agreement will prevent a potential US debt default. They are optimistic about the situation and expect a good week of trading ahead.

Debt Ceiling Agreement Reached, but Opposition Looms in Congress

US President Joe Biden and top Republican Kevin McCarthy have reached a preliminary agreement to raise the US government’s debt ceiling until January 2025. President Biden is urging Congress to pass the deal, and McCarthy is confident it will be approved in the House.

Conversely, some Republican policymakers are opposing the compromises made in the debt ceiling agreement and are prepared to challenge it in both the House and the Senate. This has created uncertainty in the market and has led to the US Dollar maintaining its strength.

Economic Worries in Eurozone and US-China Tensions Dampen Market Sentiment

Furthermore, the ongoing concerns about a possible recession in the Eurozone have emerged due to a downward revision of Germany’s Q1 GDP figures. This and ongoing tensions between the US and China dampen market sentiment. Additionally, China has declined a request from the US for a meeting of Defense Chiefs in Singapore, as the Wall Street Journal reported.

Therefore, the downward revision of Germany’s Q1 GDP figures raises worries about the region’s overall economic health. Moreover, ongoing tensions between the US and China add to the uncertainty and contribute to a cautious market outlook. China’s rejection of the US request for a Defense Chiefs meeting further exacerbates the geopolitical tensions.

Hence, these factors create an environment of increased risk and uncertainty, potentially affecting investment decisions and market performance.

Upcoming Key Events to Watch: Eurozone and US Sentiment, US Default News, and US Jobs Report

It is important to keep an eye on sentiment numbers from the Eurozone and the US. These numbers will provide valuable information, especially in light of the recent increase in expectations of the Federal Reserve adopting a more hawkish stance.

Additionally, monitoring the market’s reaction to the latest news regarding the US default is crucial. Furthermore, the US jobs report on Friday will be a key event to pay attention.

SPX S&P500 – Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 is currently experiencing some volatility as we enter the middle of the trading week. Today, the focus will be on the release of consumer confidence data from the US economy, which is expected to have an impact on the price action of the S&P 500.

Currently, the index is trading around the 4205 level and facing resistance around 4210. This level has now formed a double top pattern, indicating a potential reversal. The formation of bearish candlesticks below the 50-day exponential moving average further supports the possibility of a bearish continuation.

However, before we see a potential bearish continuation, there is a possibility of a minor correction in the S&P 500, with support expected around the 4175 level or even down to 4150. Today, it is important to monitor the 4215 level as it is likely to act as a pivot point.

Below this level, we can expect a bearish sentiment, while above it, a bullish sentiment may prevail. A break above the 4215 level could expose the S&P 500 to higher levels such as 4250 or even 4299. On the downside, key support levels are likely to be found around 4150 and 4103.

Let’s keep a close eye on these levels and observe the price action of the S&P 500 throughout the day.

Daily Price Outlook

The S&P 500 futures have struggled to recover and faced additional losses during the Asian trading session. This has led to cautious sentiment in the market as there is still no agreement between US President Joe Biden and House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy, putting President Biden in a challenging position.

Consequently, the S&P 500 Futures are showing slight losses, currently hovering around 4,200. This comes after a reversal from the highest levels seen since August 2022.

Additionally, the yields on US 10-year and two-year Treasury bonds have dropped to 3.65% and 4.23%, respectively. This indicates that investors are seeking the safety of Treasury bonds amid market uncertainty.

It's important to note that Wall Street closed with minor losses on Friday, reflecting mixed concerns surrounding the actions of the Federal Reserve and the ongoing drama surrounding the US debt ceiling.

Growing Optimism for US Debt Ceiling Deal Boosts Investor Confidence

On a positive note, there is growing optimism that a deal to raise the US debt ceiling may be reached this week. Kevin McCarthy, a prominent Republican in the US Congress, has announced that negotiations to increase the government's debt ceiling are progressing well. He expects a bill to be presented for consideration on the House floor in the coming week.

This development has helped alleviate concerns about a potential default by the world's largest economy and has instilled confidence among investors. As a result, overall market sentiment has been positive.

However, if an agreement is not reached, President Biden may have to utilize the authority granted to him by the 14th amendment to prevent the economy from defaulting. In simpler terms, the 14th amendment gives the President the power to protect the country's financial stability and avoid a situation where the government is unable to meet its financial obligations.

The potential default of the US government could have adverse effects on the economy, leading to a loss of investor and financial institution confidence, market instability, and hindered economic growth. Therefore, market participants are closely monitoring the negotiations between President Biden and Speaker McCarthy for clarity and stability in the market.

Federal Reserve's Inflation Concerns, Rate Hike Expectations, and Key Data Releases

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concerns about inflation on Friday and acknowledged that the recent banking crisis, which led to stricter credit standards, has reduced the need for interest rate hikes. This provided some relief to US Dollar bulls as it indicated a less aggressive stance by the Fed.

However, market expectations for a 0.25% rate hike in June have increased, while calls for a rate cut in 2023 have diminished. This shift in expectations is driven by positive economic data from the United States last week and hawkish comments from Fed officials. As a result, the market's previous optimism has waned, and investors are eagerly awaiting key economic data releases.

In the coming days, several important events are on the horizon, including the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, preliminary readings of the Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for May, and the US Core PCE Price Index, which is a key inflation gauge monitored by the Federal Reserve.

SPX S&P500 – Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 index is currently trading at the 4198 level, closely aligning with our previous forecast of 4190. On the four-hour timeframe, there has been a breakthrough of an ascending triangle pattern, indicating a strong resistance level around 4160.

This breach of the pattern suggests the potential continuation of the upward bullish trend in the S&P 500.

A bullish engulfing candle has formed on the four-hour chart, indicating a possible buying opportunity. The next significant resistance to monitor is at 4222, while support can be found around 4180. It is advisable to wait for a pullback to the 4182 level before considering additional positions on the S&P 500.

Both the RSI and MACD indicators are currently in neutral territory, and the 50-day exponential moving average is providing additional support.

Daily Price Outlook

    * S&P 500 trades at 4198, aligning with our 4190 forecast. Ascending triangle pattern breached, indicating resistance at 4160.

    * Breach suggests potential continuation of bullish trend in S&P 500.

Watch 4222 resistance and 4180 support. Wait for pullback to 4182 before considering additional positions.

The S&P 500 index is currently trading at the 4198 level, closely aligning with our previous forecast of 4190. On the four-hour timeframe, there has been a breakthrough of an ascending triangle pattern, indicating a strong resistance level around 4160.

This breach of the pattern suggests the potential continuation of the upward bullish trend in the S&P 500.

A bullish engulfing candle has formed on the four-hour chart, indicating a possible buying opportunity. The next significant resistance to monitor is at 4222, while support can be found around 4180. It is advisable to wait for a pullback to the 4182 level before considering additional positions on the S&P 500.

Both the RSI and MACD indicators are currently in neutral territory, and the 50-day exponential moving average is providing additional support.

SPX S&P500 - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy 4180

Stop Loss – 4150

Take Profit – 4221

Risk to Reward – 1 : 1.35

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$407/ -$304

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$40/ -$30

Daily Price Outlook

U.S. stocks continued their upward trajectory for a second consecutive day on Thursday, fueled by optimism surrounding a potential resolution to the country's debt issue.

Additionally, positive sales forecasts from retail giant Walmart Inc. (WMT.N) provided an additional boost to market sentiment. As investors awaited news on the debt ceiling negotiations, the S&P 500 index (.SPX) managed to recover from early losses, buoyed by remarks from Kevin McCarthy, the leading U.S. congressional Republican, who expressed optimism about reaching an agreement.

Amidst these developments, President Joe Biden and McCarthy scheduled discussions to expedite the process of raising the national debt. The market remained attentive to these crucial negotiations, as they would have far-reaching implications for the economy and interest rate policies.

U.S. stocks displayed resilience on Thursday, as hopes for a swift resolution to the country's debt issue fueled positive market sentiment. Walmart Inc. (WMT.N) provided further support, with an upbeat sales forecast for the year. Kevin McCarthy, the prominent U.S. congressional Republican, offered a glimmer of hope by suggesting the possibility of an agreement to raise or suspend the debt ceiling, potentially leading to a House vote next week.

Consequently, the S&P 500 index (.SPX) managed to recover from early losses. President Joe Biden and McCarthy, aiming for a quick resolution, agreed to engage in discussions as early as Sunday to address the pressing matter of raising the national debt, which currently stands at $31.4 trillion.

Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Troy, Michigan, highlighted the easing of stress surrounding the debt ceiling, while acknowledging McCarthy's optimism for a deal by the end of the week.

Amidst these positive developments, Walmart's (WMT.N) shares climbed 1.30% to $151.47 following better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and an upward revision to their 2023 sales and profit outlook.

However, concerns over the debt ceiling continued to cast uncertainty over Federal Reserve interest rate policies. Nevertheless, economic data revealed fewer-than-anticipated filings for unemployment benefits, reflecting a tight labor market and potentially allowing the Fed to maintain its course of rate hikes.

While the U.S. economy has shown signs of some slowdown due to inflation-fighting rate increases, Fed officials remain cautious about cutting rates or deviating from the current trend of hikes. Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan and Fed Governor Philip Jefferson emphasized that the economy does not appear to be decelerating rapidly enough to warrant a pause in rate hikes.

Saglimbene cautioned that the upcoming debt ceiling agreement if reached, coupled with the June Fed meeting, which policymakers have hinted could be live, may cap market momentum.

Notably, the Nasdaq Composite experienced 88 new highs and 83 new lows, while the S&P 500 established 27 new 52-week highs and encountered seven fresh lows, underscoring the ongoing market fluctuations.

SPX S&P500 – Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 is currently trading at the 4198 level, aligning closely with our previous forecast of 4190. On the four-hour timeframe, the index has broken through an ascending triangle pattern, indicating a strong resistance level around 4160.

This violation of the pattern suggests a potential continuation of the bullish trend, with further upward movement expected in the S&P 500.

A bullish engulfing candle has formed on the four-hour chart, signaling a potential buying opportunity. The next significant resistance level to watch is at 4222, while support is seen around 4180. It is advisable to wait for a pullback to the 4182 level before considering additional positions on the S&P 500.

Both the RSI and MACD indicators are currently in neutral territory, and the 50-day exponential moving average is providing additional support.

Related:

    * GOLD Price Analysis – May 19, 2023

    * EUR/USD Price Analysis – May 19, 2023

    * EUR/USD Price Analysis – May 16, 2023

Daily Price Outlook

    * The S&P 500 is trading at 4198, in line with our previous forecast.

    * Violation of the ascending triangle pattern suggests a continuation of the bullish trend.

    * A bullish engulfing candle formation indicates a potential buying opportunity.

    * Resistance is expected at 4222, with support at 4180.

The S&P 500 is currently trading at the 4198 level, aligning closely with our previous forecast of 4190. On the four-hour timeframe, the index has broken through an ascending triangle pattern, indicating a strong resistance level around 4160.

This violation of the pattern suggests a potential continuation of the bullish trend, with further upward movement expected in the S&P 500.

A bullish engulfing candle has formed on the four-hour chart, signaling a potential buying opportunity. The next significant resistance level to watch is at 4222, while support is seen around 4180. It is advisable to wait for a pullback to the 4182 level before considering additional positions on the S&P 500.

Both the RSI and MACD indicators are currently in neutral territory, and the 50-day exponential moving average is providing additional support.

SPX S&P500 - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 4180.66

Stop Loss – 4150.24

Take Profit – 4221.43

Risk to Reward – 1 : 1.34

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$418/ -$304

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$41/ -$30

Daily Price Outlook

The S&P 500 futures are experiencing modest declines despite a positive close on Wall Street. This comes as investors in Asia remain optimistic about a potential extension of the US debt ceiling. The upbeat sentiment is also supported by several factors, including positive economic developments in Australia and New Zealand, as well as encouraging trade news from China.

Asian Markets Gain Momentum: Australia's Employment Data and Japanese Nikkei 225 Reach New Highs

In the Asian market, the MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares, excluding Japan, has risen by 0.70%. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei 225 has recorded intraday gains of 1.60%, reaching its highest levels since late 2021.

However, the positive performance can be attributed to Australia's surprising employment change figures for April, which showed a decline of 4.3K jobs compared to the expected increase of 25K. Additionally, the unemployment rate in Australia rose to 3.7% from the previous 3.5%.

These developments have dampened the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and helped maintain firmness in Aussie shares. New Zealand has also contributed to the positive mood with its no-frills budget, leading to a nearly 1.20% increase in the NZX50 index.

Timber Imports Boost Chinese, Hong Kong, and Taiwanese Stocks, Doubts Linger on Budget Solution

China is considering resuming timber imports from Australia, leading to strong stock performance in China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. However, Indonesia's stock market is not following this trend, while Indian equities are slightly positive.

US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's comments have reassured markets about avoiding a catastrophic default. There are doubts about Biden's ability to reach a budget solution by the end of the week, which could impact positive sentiment.

Concerns about US economic data and cautious consumer spending have affected companies like Target and Home Depot. The S&P 500 is experiencing small losses but remains cautiously optimistic as investors watch for further developments.

SPX S&P500 – Technical Outlook

On Thursday, the S&P 500, a leading stock market index, is exhibiting a slight bullish bias, trading around the 4150 level. It has recently surpassed a significant resistance level at 4149, which had been acting as a major hurdle.

Moreover, the formation of a bullish candlestick pattern on the four-hour timeframe indicates a strong bullish sentiment among investors regarding the S&P 500.

Therefore, if the candles continue to close above the 4140 level, it suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend towards the 4150 level, with the next target likely to be around the resistance levels of 4180 or 4195.

Additionally, the 50-day exponential moving average is providing support to the current trend by acting as a support zone around the 4130 level. Furthermore, the RSI and MACD indicators are holding in a bullish zone, further supporting the likelihood of a continued upward trend.

Related:

    * GBP/USD Price Analysis – May 18, 2023

    * GOLD Price Analysis – May 18, 2023

    * USD/JPY Price Analysis – May 17, 2023

Daily Price Outlook

    * S&P 500 shows a slight bullish bias, trading around 4150 level

    * Overcame significant resistance at 4149, indicating bullish momentum

Bullish candlestick pattern on the four-hour timeframe signals strong investor sentiment

    * Potential continuation of upward trend towards 4150, with resistance levels at 4180 or 4195

On Thursday, the S&P 500, a leading stock market index, is exhibiting a slight bullish bias, trading around the 4150 level. It has recently surpassed a significant resistance level at 4149, which had been acting as a major hurdle.

Moreover, the formation of a bullish candlestick pattern on the four-hour timeframe indicates a strong bullish sentiment among investors regarding the S&P 500.

Therefore, if the candles continue to close above the 4140 level, it suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend towards the 4150 level, with the next target likely to be around the resistance levels of 4180 or 4195.

Additionally, the 50-day exponential moving average is providing support to the current trend by acting as a support zone around the 4130 level. Furthermore, the RSI and MACD indicators are holding in a bullish zone, further supporting the likelihood of a continued upward trend.

SPX S&P500  - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 4149

Stop Loss – 4120

Take Profit – 4196

Risk to Reward – 1 : 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$466/ -$296

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$466/ -$29

Daily Trading Signal

    * S&P 500 trading slightly bullish around $4137 level, SDX gaining support at $4120 with upward trend line.

    * Bulls gathering around $4120 level, potential for SPX to test immediate resistance at $4170 and reach next level at 4200.

    * If SPX drops below $4120, could reach $4089. Technical indicators suggest weakening bearish bias, recommended to take buy position above $4120 level.

The S&P 500, the US economy's leading stock market index, is trading slightly bullish around the $4137 level. On the two-hour time frame, the SDX is gaining immediate support at $4120, which is extended by an upward trend line.

The closing of several candles above the $4120 level suggests that bulls gather around this level. There are chances for the SPX to continue its bullish trend and test the immediate resistance level of $4170. A break above $4170 can push the SPX toward the next resistance level at 4200.

Alternatively, if the SPX breaks below $4120, it could drop to $4089. The leading technical indicators, such as RSI and MACD, suggest that the bearish bias is weakening, and the bulls may take over soon. Therefore, the recommended strategy is to take a buy position above the $4120 level today.

S&P500 (SPX) Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above $4119

Stop Loss – $4098

Take Profit – $4171

Risk to Reward – 1 : 2.44

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$519/ -$212

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$51/ -$21