GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- GBP/USD faces resistance at $1.2956, with bearish momentum below the 50 EMA.
- Key support levels are $1.2932 and $1.2921, with potential declines if breached.
- RSI indicates weakening buying strength, suggesting a possible continuation of the downtrend.
GBP/USD has resumed a downward trajectory after hitting a resistance level at $1.2975, with further declines pushing it towards the $1.2932 level. The British pound is currently trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.2965, signaling bearish momentum.
A break below the $1.2950 pivot point indicates potential for further downside movement, particularly as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 36, showing weakened buying interest and potential oversold conditions in the near term.
Immediate resistance is at $1.2956, with the next levels at $1.2975 and $1.3012. On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.2932, followed by $1.2921 and $1.2886. With the RSI failing to hold above 40 and the price remaining under the 50 EMA, bearish sentiment could persist, provided there is no significant reversal above the $1.2956 level.
If GBP/USD breaks below the $1.2921 support level, it could extend losses toward the next key support at $1.2886, reflecting potential downside momentum in line with current market sentiment.
Conclusion: GBP/USD is poised for further declines, with key support at $1.2921 and immediate resistance at $1.2956. Sustained trading below the pivot point at $1.2950 reinforces the bearish outlook, while a break below $1.2921 could signal continued downside.
GBP/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.29566
Take Profit – 1.29210
Stop Loss – 1.29872
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$356/ -$306
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$35/ -$30
GBP/USD Price Analysis – Oct 28, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD pair reversed its early bearish trend, gaining positive momentum around the 1.2982 mark and reaching an intraday high of 1.2988.
This upward movement likely reflects a weakening U.S. Dollar as investors shift their focus to key U.S. economic data releases scheduled for this week.
Moreover, the British Pound outperforms its major counterparts as markets anticipate the UK’s Autumn Forecast Statement, set for release on Wednesday.
On the flip side, the gains in the GBP/USD pair may be limited, as Labour's first budget is unlikely to propose significant spending increases due to the ongoing challenge of high inflation. This cautious outlook could undermine the GBP, as investors remain wary of the government's capacity to effectively address inflation concerns.
Impact of Economic Uncertainty on GBP/USD Performance
Despite the Pound Sterling performing well against most major currencies on Monday, it is still facing pressure ahead of the UK's Autumn Forecast Statement, set for Wednesday.
The Labour Party's first budget is unlikely to include major spending increases due to high inflation. The Chancellor of the Exchequer has promised to keep election commitments, which means no increases in income tax or national insurance, but there may be a rise in employers' national insurance by up to 2 percentage points.
Moreover, the Labour Party is expected to offer significant support for making housing more affordable.
Meanwhile, speculation about the Bank of England (BoE) cutting interest rates in its remaining meetings this year could dampen the appeal of the Pound Sterling.
Market expectations are leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut in November and December, following dovish comments from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey during discussions at the IMF meeting last week.
Bailey noted that while disinflation is occurring more quickly than anticipated, there are still concerns about potential structural changes in the economy. This outlook could contribute to a cautious sentiment among investors regarding the Pound's future performance.
Therefore, the uncertainty surrounding the UK's Autumn Forecast Statement and potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of England may weaken the GBP/USD pair. Investors' cautious sentiment could lead to a decline in the Pound's value against the U.S. Dollar.
Impact of US Economic Data and Political Uncertainty on GBP/USD Performance
On the US front, the US dollar lost some of its traction but it is still near a three-month high of around 104.60. Investors are particularly interested in the preliminary Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the October Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which will provide insights into the current state of economic growth and labor demand.
These economic indicators will heavily influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook for the rest of the year.
However, the Fed began its policy-easing cycle with an unusual 50 basis point interest rate cut in September due to concerns about rising economic risks, while maintaining confidence that inflation will stay on track to meet its 2% target. Traders anticipate further cuts of 25 basis points in November and December, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool.
Moreover, the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US presidential election is likely to support the US Dollar.
Financial experts discussed the potential impact of the election during last week's International Monetary Fund (IMF) meetings, particularly regarding former President Donald Trump's promise to raise tariffs, which could increase global supply chain costs.
Therefore, the mild bearish US Dollar, combined with key economic data influencing Federal Reserve rate expectations, could support the GBP/USD pair. However, ongoing uncertainties related to the US presidential election create volatility, impacting the Pound's strength against the Dollar.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD has resumed a downward trajectory after hitting a resistance level at $1.2975, with further declines pushing it towards the $1.2932 level. The British pound is currently trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.2965, signaling bearish momentum.
A break below the $1.2950 pivot point indicates potential for further downside movement, particularly as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 36, showing weakened buying interest and potential oversold conditions in the near term.
Immediate resistance is at $1.2956, with the next levels at $1.2975 and $1.3012. On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.2932, followed by $1.2921 and $1.2886. With the RSI failing to hold above 40 and the price remaining under the 50 EMA, bearish sentiment could persist, provided there is no significant reversal above the $1.2956 level.
If GBP/USD breaks below the $1.2921 support level, it could extend losses toward the next key support at $1.2886, reflecting potential downside momentum in line with current market sentiment.
Conclusion: GBP/USD is poised for further declines, with key support at $1.2921 and immediate resistance at $1.2956. Sustained trading below the pivot point at $1.2950 reinforces the bearish outlook, while a break below $1.2921 could signal continued downside.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- GBP/USD pivot point at $1.30087 suggests range-bound conditions.
- Immediate resistance at $1.30716; a break above may lead to $1.31246.
- RSI at 44 and prices below the 50-day EMA indicate limited bullish momentum.
Technically, GBP/USD is trading just below its pivot point of $1.30087, indicating a potential for range-bound price action in the short term. Immediate resistance is noted at $1.30716, with higher resistance levels at $1.31246 and $1.31760. A move above $1.30716 could push the pair toward these higher resistance levels, but momentum appears to be fading.
On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.29495, with subsequent support at $1.28987 and a deeper level at $1.28242. A breach below $1.29495 would likely signal increased selling pressure, potentially leading to a more significant correction toward the lower support zones.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 44, suggesting a lack of strong directional bias as the pair remains in neutral territory. Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.30268 indicates that GBP/USD is struggling to break back above critical resistance, which reinforces a slightly bearish outlook for the near term.
For traders, a short position may be considered if GBP/USD drops below $1.30252, with a take-profit target at $1.28981 and a stop-loss at $1.30761 to manage potential upside risks.
GBP/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.30252
Take Profit – 1.28981
Stop Loss – 1.30761
Risk to Reward – 1: 2.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1271/ -$509
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$127/ -$50
GBP/USD Price Analysis – Oct 23, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair maintained its upward momentum, holding strong around the 1.2995 level. This is quite impressive, especially given the typically bullish US dollar, which tends to push prices down.
However, the Pound Sterling (GBP) found support following comments from Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene. She shared a slightly hawkish perspective on interest rates during her discussion with the Atlantic Council at the IMF meeting on Tuesday. This was seen as a key factor that kept the GBP/USD pair higher.
Looking ahead, traders are keeping a close eye on the upcoming flash S&P Global/CIPS Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for October, set to be released on Thursday. Meanwhile, the expectations are for the PMI report to show modest growth in overall business activity, which could further influence market sentiment.
Pound Sterling Strengthens on Hawkish BoE Outlook Amid Upcoming Key Speech
As we mentioned, the British currency has gained traction right after hawkish comments from Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene. During a discussion with the Atlantic Council at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting, Greene provided a slightly hawkish outlook on interest rates.
She emphasized the need for monetary policy to continue addressing inflation to meet target levels. When asked if the recent decline in UK inflation would affect her vote in November, Greene noted that the drop was influenced by volatile factors and suggested she wouldn’t rely too heavily on this data.
It's important to remember that Greene was one of the four MPC members who voted to keep interest rates unchanged in August when the BoE reduced rates by 25 basis points to 5%. Moving ahead, the next key event for the Pound Sterling will be BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech scheduled for 18:45 GMT.
Investors will be keen to hear his insights for clues on potential monetary policy changes in November and December. Meanwhile, traders are already anticipating another interest rate cut in November, which could further influence the Pound's performance.
Therefore, the Pound's strengthening due to Megan Greene's hawkish comments may bolster the GBP/USD pair. If BoE Governor Bailey's upcoming speech suggests a more cautious stance on rate cuts, it could support the Pound further, enhancing its value against the US dollar.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Election Uncertainty, Pressuring GBP/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been gaining strength, putting pressure on the Pound Sterling, which is struggling to stay above the psychological resistance level of 1.3000 against the US dollar during Wednesday's London session. This increase in the dollar's appeal as a safe haven comes amid uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US presidential elections on November 5.
However, recent polls show Vice President Kamala Harris with a slight lead over former President Donald Trump, raising concerns among investors. Market participants are worried that if Trump wins, it could lead to higher tariffs, negatively affecting exports from key trading partners such as the Eurozone, Canada, Mexico, China, and Japan.
Moreover, expectations for a gradual easing of Federal Reserve policies this year and into 2025 have further boosted the dollar's appeal. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also raised its growth forecast for the US in 2023 to 2.8% from 2.6% previously, along with increasing GDP projections for 2025 to 2.2%.
Therefore, the strengthening US dollar, driven by election uncertainties and higher growth forecasts, places downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
Technically, GBP/USD is trading just below its pivot point of $1.30087, indicating a potential for range-bound price action in the short term. Immediate resistance is noted at $1.30716, with higher resistance levels at $1.31246 and $1.31760. A move above $1.30716 could push the pair toward these higher resistance levels, but momentum appears to be fading.
On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.29495, with subsequent support at $1.28987 and a deeper level at $1.28242. A breach below $1.29495 would likely signal increased selling pressure, potentially leading to a more significant correction toward the lower support zones.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 44, suggesting a lack of strong directional bias as the pair remains in neutral territory. Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.30268 indicates that GBP/USD is struggling to break back above critical resistance, which reinforces a slightly bearish outlook for the near term.
For traders, a short position may be considered if GBP/USD drops below $1.30252, with a take-profit target at $1.28981 and a stop-loss at $1.30761 to manage potential upside risks.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – Oct 21, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European session on Monday, the GBP/USD pair struggled to maintain its upward trend, turning bearish around the 1.3026 level and hitting an intraday low of 1.3012. However, the surprise drop in the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) has increased expectations for a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut at the upcoming November 7 meeting.
Meanwhile, money markets are pricing in the possibility of another BoE rate cut in December, which could further undermine the British Pound (GBP). This situation, combined with the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD), reinforces the negative outlook for the GBP/USD pair. However, the strength of the US Dollar was supported by expectations of modest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
UK Inflation Decline Fuels Rate Cut Expectations, Weighing on GBP/USD Pair
On the data front, the surprising drop in the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) has brought inflation to its lowest level since April 2021, falling below the Bank of England's (BoE) 2% target. This development has raised expectations for a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut at the BoE's meeting on November 7. Moreover, money markets are considering the possibility of another rate cut in December, which could further weaken the British Pound (GBP).
As a result, any short-term increase in the GBP/USD pair could be seen as a selling opportunity. However, bearish traders may choose to wait for the pair to fall below the important 1.3000 psychological level before making new bets. If the pair does drop below this mark, traders may position themselves for a further decline toward the support level at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently around the 1.2960 region.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Fed's Stance and UK Inflation Data, Pressuring GBP/USD Pair
On the US front, the US dollar is gaining strength as expectations of modest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) support higher US Treasury yields. Investors have dismissed the chance of a significant interest rate cut by the Fed in November, as recent economic data shows that the US economy remains resilient.
Fed officials, including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, have expressed that there is no rush to cut rates, with forecasts suggesting rates may eventually fall to around 3-3.5% by the end of next year. This stability in US monetary policy contrasts sharply with the weak inflation data from the UK, which has raised expectations for more aggressive easing measures from the Bank of England.
As a result, the stronger US Dollar and shifting monetary policies create a challenging environment for the GBP/USD pair. The combination of a resilient US economy and potential rate cuts from the Bank of England may lead to further declines in the British Pound's value against the dollar.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is currently trading at $1.30431, with minor fluctuations indicating consolidation around this level. The pair faces selling pressure after peaking at $1.30816, failing to break a key resistance zone.
The GBP/USD has retraced from its resistance zone of $1.30821, and the price is currently hovering near the pivot point of $1.30322. The pattern on the chart indicates a bearish bias, especially after the pair failed to break above the resistance level at $1.30821.
Technical indicators present mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 55.93, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, which suggests that there’s still room for downside movement. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.30322 acts as a dynamic support level, but the price is trending below it, hinting at potential bearish pressure.
Key levels to watch include the immediate support at $1.30148. A break below this level could accelerate selling towards the next support levels at $1.29953 and $1.29733. Conversely, if prices rebound from $1.30148, immediate resistance stands at $1.30816, with a key upside target of $1.31301.
Conclusion: GBP/USD’s outlook remains bearish below $1.30559. Traders may consider entering short positions below this level, targeting $1.30148 with a stop-loss at $1.30821. The bearish sentiment is reinforced by the pair trading below the pivot point and immediate resistance zone.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- GBP/USD trades near a pivot point at $1.30322, indicating possible bearish momentum.
- The RSI at 55.93 suggests neutral sentiment, but further declines may ensue below $1.30148.
- 50 EMA acts as a key support level, with prices needing to hold below it to confirm further downside.
GBP/USD is currently trading at $1.30431, with minor fluctuations indicating consolidation around this level. The pair faces selling pressure after peaking at $1.30816, failing to break a key resistance zone.
The GBP/USD has retraced from its resistance zone of $1.30821, and the price is currently hovering near the pivot point of $1.30322. The pattern on the chart indicates a bearish bias, especially after the pair failed to break above the resistance level at $1.30821.
Technical indicators present mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 55.93, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, which suggests that there’s still room for downside movement. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.30322 acts as a dynamic support level, but the price is trending below it, hinting at potential bearish pressure.
Key levels to watch include the immediate support at $1.30148. A break below this level could accelerate selling towards the next support levels at $1.29953 and $1.29733. Conversely, if prices rebound from $1.30148, immediate resistance stands at $1.30816, with a key upside target of $1.31301.
Conclusion: GBP/USD’s outlook remains bearish below $1.30559. Traders may consider entering short positions below this level, targeting $1.30148 with a stop-loss at $1.30821. The bearish sentiment is reinforced by the pair trading below the pivot point and immediate resistance zone.
GBP/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.30559
Take Profit – 1.30148
Stop Loss – 1.30821
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$411/ -$262
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$41/ -$26
GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- GBP/USD is under pressure, trading below the pivot point of $1.3037, with further downside potential.
- RSI at 31 suggests the pair is nearing oversold territory, signaling potential for a short-term bounce.
- The 50-EMA at $1.3062 confirms bearish sentiment as long as the pair stays below this level.
The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.30095, down 0.51% as bearish momentum continues to pressure the currency pair. On the 4-hour chart, the price has dipped below the pivot point of $1.3037, signaling a continuation of the recent downtrend.
Immediate resistance is observed at $1.3076, with further levels at $1.3102 and $1.3133. However, with the pair trading near key support at $1.3002, a break below this level could accelerate selling toward the next support zones at $1.2969 and $1.2942.
Technical indicators point to a bearish outlook, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 31, hovering near oversold territory. This suggests the possibility of a short-term bounce, but the overall trend remains downward.
The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently at $1.3062, reinforcing the bearish sentiment as the price remains well below this level. Traders should watch for further declines, especially if the pair breaches $1.3002.
A potential trading strategy could involve selling below $1.30353, targeting $1.29842, with a stop loss set at $1.30636 to mitigate risks.
The oversold RSI offers a note of caution, signaling the possibility of a short-term corrective move, but overall, the downward trend appears dominant.
This analysis highlights the key levels and indicators driving the GBP/USD’s short-term outlook, with a bearish bias prevailing for now.
GBP/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.30353
Take Profit – 1.29842
Stop Loss – 1.30636
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$511/ -$283
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$51/ -$28
GBP/USD Price Analysis – Oct 16, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair extended its downward slide, facing significant selling pressure. This came after the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) released a weaker-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September, adding to concerns about the UK economy.
At the same time, the US Dollar remained strong, hovering near a two-month high, as traders factored in the possibility of only moderate rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) later this year. These combined factors weighed heavily on the GBP/USD pair.
Looking ahead, market participants will be closely watching Thursday’s release of the US Retail Sales data for September. The report, which is a key indicator of consumer spending, is projected to show a 0.3% increase.
GBP/USD Declines as Weak Inflation Data Fuels Rate Cut Expectations
As we mentioned, the GBP/USD pair is facing heavy selling pressure after the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) released a weaker-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September. The annual headline inflation rate dropped to 1.7%, falling short of the anticipated 1.9% and down from 2.2% in August.
Month-on-month inflation stayed flat, while core CPI inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, also decreased faster than expected to 3.2%, below the 3.4% estimate. Services inflation, a key focus for the Bank of England (BoE), slowed to 4.9% from 5.6%.
This significant drop in inflation is increasing expectations that the BoE will cut interest rates in its upcoming policy meetings in November or December, possibly by 25 basis points. A slowdown in wage growth, which rose by 4.9% in the three months ending in August—the slowest in two years—also contributed to the market's belief that inflationary pressures will ease further. Market participants are now more confident that the BoE will move toward rate cuts as inflation continues to decelerate.
Therefore, the weaker inflation data and rising expectations of a Bank of England interest rate cut are driving the GBP/USD pair lower, as reduced rate hike prospects make the British pound less attractive to investors, increasing selling pressure on the currency.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Rate Cut Expectations and Resilient Economic Data
On the US front, the US Dollar is holding strong near a two-month high as traders anticipate moderate interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in upcoming policy meetings. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is maintaining its gains around 103.30 after the Fed initiated its policy-easing cycle with a significant 50 basis point (bps) cut in September. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are expecting further rate cuts of 25 bps in both November and December meetings.
Despite these expectations, recent positive US economic data has reduced fears of an economic slowdown. Key indicators like Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and ISM Services PMI showed strong growth in September, suggesting economic resilience. Additionally, inflation pressures increased unexpectedly, indicating that the battle against rising prices is ongoing.
Therefore, the strength of the US Dollar, supported by anticipated Fed rate cuts and positive economic data, is exerting downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Looking ahead, investors are keenly awaiting the release of September's US Retail Sales data.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.30095, down 0.51% as bearish momentum continues to pressure the currency pair. On the 4-hour chart, the price has dipped below the pivot point of $1.3037, signaling a continuation of the recent downtrend.
Immediate resistance is observed at $1.3076, with further levels at $1.3102 and $1.3133. However, with the pair trading near key support at $1.3002, a break below this level could accelerate selling toward the next support zones at $1.2969 and $1.2942.
Technical indicators point to a bearish outlook, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 31, hovering near oversold territory. This suggests the possibility of a short-term bounce, but the overall trend remains downward.
The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently at $1.3062, reinforcing the bearish sentiment as the price remains well below this level. Traders should watch for further declines, especially if the pair breaches $1.3002.
A potential trading strategy could involve selling below $1.30353, targeting $1.29842, with a stop loss set at $1.30636 to mitigate risks.
The oversold RSI offers a note of caution, signaling the possibility of a short-term corrective move, but overall, the downward trend appears dominant.
This analysis highlights the key levels and indicators driving the GBP/USD’s short-term outlook, with a bearish bias prevailing for now.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- GBP/USD faces resistance at $1.30832 and must break above the 50-day EMA at $1.30726 to maintain a bullish trend.
- RSI at 50 indicates neutral market sentiment, leaving room for further directional movement.
- Key support at $1.30217 could trigger a bearish move if breached.
GBP/USD is trading at $1.30658, up 0.01%, reflecting a neutral yet slightly bullish tone. The pair is currently hovering around the pivot point at $1.30509, which could serve as a crucial level for the next directional move. Immediate resistance stands at $1.30832, followed by higher levels at $1.31051 and $1.31329. A break above these levels could signal more upside potential for the pound, possibly driving it towards $1.31329.
On the downside, the first line of defense is at $1.30217, with additional support at $1.29945 and $1.29659. A drop below $1.30217 could trigger a more bearish sentiment, testing the lower levels, especially if the pound fails to hold above the pivot point.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits at $1.30726, serving as a critical resistance level. A failure to break above this EMA could indicate some consolidation, with the pair needing a stronger push to continue the uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 50, reflecting neutral momentum and signaling that the market could swing either way depending on key developments in the coming sessions.
A buying opportunity presents itself above $1.30399, with a target to take profit at $1.31049. Traders should be cautious of downside risks, placing a stop-loss at $1.30085 to mitigate any potential losses from a reversal.
GBP/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.30399
Take Profit – 1.31049
Stop Loss – 1.30085
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$650/ -$314
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$65/ -$31
GBP/USD Price Analysis – Oct 14, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European session on Monday, the GBP/USD pair is seeing some mild losses, hovering around 1.3060, hitting the intra-day low of 1.3041. The rise in safe-haven flows, driven by increasing geopolitical risks, is lending support to the US dollar and pulling the major pair lower. Investors are keenly awaiting UK employment data scheduled for Tuesday, which could provide insight into the health of the labor market and the future trajectory of interest rates.
On the GBP side, dovish comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey are also weighing on the currency. He hinted that the central bank might take a more aggressive stance on rate cuts, with markets currently pricing in a 90% likelihood of a rate cut in November. This sentiment is contributing to the downward pressure on the GBP and impacting the GBP/USD pair's performance.
US Dollar Strengthens Against GBP Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Data
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is gaining strength due to safe-haven flows amid rising geopolitical tensions. This is putting downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair as investors look ahead to key economic data. Investors are closely watching UK employment data set to be released on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the annual Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.8% year-over-year in September, slightly down from 1.9% in August but higher than the expected 1.6%. The core PPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 2.8% year-over-year, beating analysts’ forecasts of 2.7%. On a monthly basis, the overall PPI remained unchanged, while the core PPI rose by 0.2%.
However, the Federal Reserve has shifted its focus from tackling inflation to maintaining a healthy job market, which is part of their dual mandate. However, a stronger-than-expected jobs report for September and reduced expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in November could boost the USD against the British pound.
Therefore, the strengthening USD, driven by safe-haven flows and economic data, along with reduced rate cut expectations, is likely to exert downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair in the near term.
Impact of Dovish Bank of England Remarks on GBP and Upcoming Economic Data
On the GBP front, dovish comments from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey are affecting the currency. He indicated that the central bank might take a more aggressive approach to cutting interest rates. Currently, markets are anticipating a 90% chance that the BoE will cut rates in November. The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet on November 7 to announce their decision on interest rates.
Looking forward, the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet on November 7 to make their decision. Ahead of this important event, investors are closely watching UK employment data set to be released on Tuesday. This data could provide valuable insights into the labor market and help shape expectations for the UK’s interest rate outlook.
GBP/USD - Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is trading at $1.30658, up 0.01%, reflecting a neutral yet slightly bullish tone. The pair is currently hovering around the pivot point at $1.30509, which could serve as a crucial level for the next directional move. Immediate resistance stands at $1.30832, followed by higher levels at $1.31051 and $1.31329. A break above these levels could signal more upside potential for the pound, possibly driving it towards $1.31329.
On the downside, the first line of defense is at $1.30217, with additional support at $1.29945 and $1.29659. A drop below $1.30217 could trigger a more bearish sentiment, testing the lower levels, especially if the pound fails to hold above the pivot point.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits at $1.30726, serving as a critical resistance level. A failure to break above this EMA could indicate some consolidation, with the pair needing a stronger push to continue the uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 50, reflecting neutral momentum and signaling that the market could swing either way depending on key developments in the coming sessions.
A buying opportunity presents itself above $1.30399, with a target to take profit at $1.31049. Traders should be cautious of downside risks, placing a stop-loss at $1.30085 to mitigate any potential losses from a reversal.
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