GBP/USD Price Analysis – May 25, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Following a new six-week low of 1.2332 hit in the early European trading hours, the GBP/USD pair has started to bounce back. However, after a rather hesitant recovery, it’s expected that the pair might continue its downward trajectory as investors are favoring a risk-off mood due to looming US debt ceiling escalations.
Having recently breached a multiple-day low, GBP/USD is licking its wounds at a 1.5-month trough, approximating 1.2350 as Thursday’s early trading begins.
In the early Asian session, the GBP/USD pair showed weakness above the critical support level of 1.2360. The pair struggles to shield its downside, hampered by the robust strength of the US Dollar Index and the much-anticipated elevation of the US debt ceiling by the White House.
Despite an initial bump seen in UK inflation data, the GBP/USD pair has made a U-turn and forfeited most of its daily advances. According to the near-term technical outlook, as long as the pair remains below a vital resistance level around 1.2450, bears are likely to remain in control.
In the first half of the European session, the GBP/USD pair pulls back to the bottom of its daily trading range after an intraday bullish spike near 1.2470 lost momentum. The pair is currently hovering around 1.2420 and seems vulnerable to extend its recent downward slide, a trend observable over the past fortnight or so.
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD – Technical Outlook
The GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading with a bearish bias as the US dollar strengthens due to solid fundamentals emerging from the US economy. The pair is currently hovering around the 1.2345 level.
On the four-hour timeframe, GBP/USD has formed three consecutive black candles followed by a bearish engulfing candle, indicating dominance by the British base in the market.
The pair has also breached the key support level at 1.2390, and a close below this level suggests a bearish sentiment. The RSI and MACD indicators are both in the oversold zone, signaling a potential bullish correction.
The price is currently in the middle of the upper range at 1.2395 and the lower range at 1.2300. It is advisable to wait for a retracement in the market and consider taking a sell position below 1.2395 or around 1.2375, with a target around 1.2300 or 1.2275.
GBP/USD Price Analysis – May 18, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Despite the Bank of England Governor Bailey's hawkish comments, the GBP/USD pair was unable to continue its previous upward trend and experienced a decline around the 1.2429 level. This was being pressured by the strength of the US dollar, which received support from recent hawkish remarks made by several FOMC members.
The USD Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US dollar against a basket of currencies, reached a six-week high due to speculations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain higher interest rates for an extended period.
Bank of England Governor's Hawkish Remarks Support GBP/USD, US Dollar Pressure Prevails
It is worth noting that the British Pound received some support after the Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, made hawkish comments regarding inflation and the need to bring it back to the target of 2%. This helped attract buyers for the GBP/USD pair. Although, the upticks were short-lived due to the strong US dollar, which exerted pressure on the GBP/USD pair.
GBP/USD Pair Faces Mixed Housing Market Data, US Dollar Strength Looms
The mixed housing market data in the US didn't have much impact on the GBP/USD pair. However, considering the overall fundamental situation, it appears that the US dollar is more likely to strengthen. It would be wise to wait for strong buying momentum before expecting a further recovery in the GBP/USD pair, especially with the upcoming BoE's Monetary Policy Report Hearings scheduled for Thursday.
Boosted Confidence and Market Recovery: Progress in US Debt Ceiling Negotiations and Global Risk Sentiment
US President Joe Biden and Republican leaders have conveyed their cautious optimism regarding reaching a deal to raise the US debt ceiling. This positive development has had a notable impact on investor confidence, leading to a modest recovery in the global risk sentiment. Therefore, the upbeat market could help GBP/USD pair to limit its deeper losses.
Additionally, this optimistic outlook has had a weakening effect on the safe-haven US Dollar, as investors seek higher-yielding and riskier assets. Furthermore, a slight decrease in US Treasury bond yields has further discouraged USD bulls from making aggressive bets. Overall, these factors indicate a shift in market dynamics influenced by the progress in debt ceiling negotiations and market sentiment.
GBP/USD – Technical Outlook
On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading with a slight downward bias around the 1.2469 level. The GBP/USD movement is currently constrained as the downtrend line on the two-hour timeframe poses a significant obstacle around the 1.2500 level.
The British pound's recent dip below the 50-day exponential moving average indicates a potential decline towards the support level of 1.2450, with further downside targets at 1.2385 or 1.2365. Conversely, a break above the 1.2506 level could lead to a test of the next resistance level at 1.2545.
Notably, the RSI and MACD indicators show divergence, with RSI holding in the selling zone while MACD histogram remains above zero.
These conflicting signals suggest a cautious approach, with the recommendation to seek selling opportunities below the 1.2500 level, setting a stop loss around 1.2520 and targeting 1.2425.
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* GOLD Price Analysis – May 18, 2023
GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
* GBP/USD trading with a slight downward bias around 1.2469 level.
* Downtrend line on the two-hour timeframe poses a significant obstacle at 1.2500 level.
* Potential support levels at 1.2450, 1.2385, and 1.2365 if GBP/USD continues to decline. Resistance at 1.2545 if it breaks above 1.2506 level.
On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading with a slight downward bias around the 1.2469 level. The GBP/USD movement is currently constrained as the downtrend line on the two-hour timeframe poses a significant obstacle around the 1.2500 level.
The British pound's recent dip below the 50-day exponential moving average indicates a potential decline towards the support level of 1.2450, with further downside targets at 1.2385 or 1.2365. Conversely, a break above the 1.2506 level could lead to a test of the next resistance level at 1.2545.
Notably, the RSI and MACD indicators show divergence, with RSI holding in the selling zone while MACD histogram remains above zero.
These conflicting signals suggest a cautious approach, with the recommendation to seek selling opportunities below the 1.2500 level, setting a stop loss around 1.2520 and targeting 1.2425.
GBP/USD - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.2500
Stop Loss – 1.2520
Take Profit – 1.2425
Risk to Reward – 1 : 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$517/ -$287
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$51/ -$28
GBP/USD Price Analysis – May 17, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The GBP/USD pair experienced significant selling pressure for the second consecutive day, leading to a resumption of the bearish trend during the first half of the European session. As a result, spot prices dropped to a three-week low around the 1.2420 level.
The British pound faced additional weakness on Tuesday due to disappointing UK monthly job data, raising expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) may need to limit interest rate hikes to control inflation. Coupled with continued USD buying, this added to the bearish pressure surrounding the GBP/USD pair and contributed to its significant intraday decline.
In contrast, the USD Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of currencies, reached a nearly two-month high driven by multiple factors. Hawkish comments from Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Loretta Mester signaled that the US central bank might maintain higher interest rates for an extended period.
Additionally, concerns about a global economic slowdown increased demand for the safe-haven dollar. The release of weaker Chinese macro data on Tuesday further fueled worries about the post-COVID recovery in the world's second-largest economy, amplifying concerns of an economic downturn.
Furthermore, uncertainty surrounding the US government's borrowing limit prompted some investors to seek refuge in the greenback. However, a slight rise in US equities futures and a decline in US Treasury bond yields could limit the strength of the USD.
Nevertheless, given the prevailing market conditions, the GBP/USD pair is expected to continue its downward trajectory. From a technical perspective, the recent break below the lower boundary of an ascending trend channel that lasted over a month favors bearish traders and increases the likelihood of a further near-term depreciation towards the next significant support level around 1.2375-1.2370.
GBP/USD – Technical Outlook
During the Asian session, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at the 1.2470 level. On the two-hour timeframe, there is a significant resistance around the 1.2496 level. After failing to break above this resistance, selling pressure has pushed the pair lower.
The 50-day exponential moving average is providing a notable resistance around the 1.2485 level. On the downside, the GBP/USD pair is likely to find support near the 1.2440 level.
This support level is reinforced by a double bottom pattern, and a break below it has the potential to expose the pair towards the 1.2400 level. It is important to note that a double bottom pattern often leads to an upward movement.
Therefore, the current strategy is to target the 1.2440 level until a decisive break below occurs. Traders may consider closing their positions near the 1.2440 level.
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* USD/JPY Price Analysis – May 17, 2023
GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
* GBP/USD is trading at 1.2470 during the Asian session.
* Resistance is observed around 1.2496, causing selling pressure and pushing the pair lower.
* The 50-day exponential moving average acts as resistance at 1.2485, while support is expected near 1.2440, reinforced by a double bottom pattern. A break below may lead to a decline towards 1.2400. Traders should monitor for a decisive break and consider closing positions near 1.2440.
During the Asian session, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at the 1.2470 level. On the two-hour timeframe, there is a significant resistance around the 1.2496 level. After failing to break above this resistance, selling pressure has pushed the pair lower.
The 50-day exponential moving average is providing a notable resistance around the 1.2485 level. On the downside, the GBP/USD pair is likely to find support near the 1.2440 level.
This support level is reinforced by a double bottom pattern, and a break below it has the potential to expose the pair towards the 1.2400 level. It is important to note that a double bottom pattern often leads to an upward movement.
Therefore, the current strategy is to target the 1.2440 level until a decisive break below occurs. Traders may consider closing their positions near the 1.2440 level.
GBP/USD - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.24942
Stop Loss – 1.25363
Take Profit – 1.24421
Risk to Reward – 1 : 1.24
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$520/ -$420
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$52/ -$42
GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
* The GBP/USD currency pair is trading at the 1.2517 level, rebounding from crucial support at 1.2499.
* Despite disappointing UK GDP figures, the technical outlook on the four-hour time frame suggests a slight bullish bias as long as the 1.2500 level is maintained.
* RSI and MACD indicators indicate oversold conditions for the Sterling, while the price remains below the 50-day exponential moving average, potentially signaling a bullish correction.
The GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at the 1.2517 level, having rebounded from the crucial support around 1.2499. On the economic front, the market has witnessed significant impact from high-impact economic events in the UK, with particular focus on the disappointing UK GDP figures.
However, shifting our attention to the technical outlook on the four-hour time frame, there is a slight support or bullish bias as long as the 1.2500 level is maintained.
The RSI and MACD indicators indicate that the Sterling is in the oversold zone. Furthermore, the current price of the GBP/USD is well below the 50-day exponential moving average, suggesting the possibility of a bullish correction in the market.
Considering these factors, we can anticipate that GBP/USD prices may exhibit bullish momentum above the 1.2500 level, targeting levels around 1.2560 or 1.2585. Conversely, if the Sterling breaks below the 1.2500 support zone, the next support level is likely to be found around 1.2540.
GBP/USD - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.24960
Stop Loss – 1.24563
Take Profit – 1.25847
Risk to Reward – 1 : 2.2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$887/ -$397
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$88/ -$39
GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
* GBP/USD is hovering around 1.2600 with new attempts to break it, indicating a bullish trend with a target of 1.2650 and potentially 1.2810.
* The 50-day EMA is supporting the bullish wave organized by bullish channels. Breaking 1.2520 will stop the expected rise and send the price into a bearish correction.
* Today's trading range is between 1.2520 support and 1.2680 resistance.
Since yesterday, the GBP/USD pair has been lingering around the 1.2600 level, with new attempts to break it, bolstering the projected positive trend in the coming time, with the next objective at 1.2650. Surpassing this level will pave the path for additional gains toward the 1.2810 area.
The 50-day exponential moving average is supporting the bullish wave, which is organized by bullish channels. Breaking 1.2520, on the other hand, will halt the expected rise and send the price into a new bearish correction, with a potential target of 1.2400 areas before any new attempt to resume the main bullish trend.
Today's predicted trading range is between the 1.2520 support level and the 1.2680 resistance level.
GBP/USD - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy 1.26000
Stop Loss – 1.25400
Take Profit – 1.27000
Risk to Reward – 1 : 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1000/ -$600
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$100/ -$60
GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
* GBPUSD trading with slight bullish bias around 1.2500, gaining key support at 1.2480 level.
* Potential to target next resistance at 1.2525, with a possible aim for 1.2560 after crossing above 50-day EMA.
* If trend slips below 1.2480, may drop further to 1.2450 or 1.2435 level.
The GBPUSD currency pair is trading with a slight bullish bias around the 1.2500 level. The currency pair has gained key support around the 1.2480 level, and after closing candles above this particular support level, which was extended by a helpful trend line, the GBPUSD pair now has potential on the upside.
The GBPUSD pair has the potential to target the next resistance level of 1.2525, and upon crossing above this particular level, which is extended by the 50-day exponential moving average, the trend may aim for the next target level of 1.2560.
Alternatively, if the trend slips below the 1.2480 level, it may drop further until reaching the 1.2450 or 1.2435 level.
GBP/USD - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.24836
Stop Loss – 1.24517
Take Profit – 1.25593
Risk to Reward – 1 : 2.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$757/ -$319
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$75/ -$31
GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
* The GBPUSD pair has witnessed a strong upward rally, surpassing the target of 1.2550, and aims for further increases with the next primary target at 1.2650.
* The EMA50 supports the price, promoting further gains, although temporary sideways movement may occur due to the stochastic indicator's negative impact.
* The bullish trend is expected to continue, with a break below 1.2550 potentially causing intraday bearish pressure before resuming the upward trajectory; today's trading range is between 1.2490 support and 1.2650 resistance.
The GBPUSD pair has experienced a strong upward rally, surpassing the anticipated target of 1.2550 and settling above it, paving the way for further increases on an intraday and short-term basis.
The next primary target is 1.2650. The EMA50 supports the price from below, enhancing the likelihood of further gains in upcoming sessions.
However, some temporary sideways movement may occur due to the negative impact of the stochastic indicator, as the price awaits positive momentum to reach new targets.
Consequently, we expect the bullish trend to continue for the upcoming period, noting that a break below 1.2550 could subject the price to intraday bearish pressure before resuming its upward trajectory.
Today's expected trading range is between 1.2490 support and 1.2650 resistance.
GBP/USD - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Above $1985
Stop Loss – 1.26190
Take Profit – 1.25010
Risk to Reward – 1 : 2.2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$815/ -$365
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$81/ -$36
GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 28, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
After a robust rally on Thursday, the GBP/USD remains unchanged in Tokyo as the brief decline persists. The bulls are currently seeking fresh momentum at the previous resistance level of 1.2500, which they consider to be close to a 10-month high.
The financial market volatility experienced this week was driven by investors' uncertainty over whether the ongoing US banking issues and the persistent deadlock surrounding the debt ceiling would ultimately bolster the US dollar.
Ahead of the announcement of the first estimate of Q1 gross domestic product and the weekly initial jobless claims report on Thursday, investors shifted away from the dollar.
https://twitter.com/mfigroups/status/1636623506623307779?s=20
The report revealed that personal consumer spending rose by 4.2%, offsetting weaker readings for other components after a 1% increase. The US economy is anticipated to have expanded by 2% in Q1, following a 2.6% growth in the previous quarter. Nevertheless, inflation persisted at high levels.
The US GDP Price Index experienced an annualized growth of 4.0% in the first quarter, suggesting that inflation is more elevated than initially anticipated. Core inflation increased by 4.9%.
https://twitter.com/therisingpanjab/status/1642031006281527297?s=20
Nonetheless, it's crucial to remember that if the GBP/USD pair continues to decline beyond 1.2360, it could easily drop to the monthly low of approximately 1.2275.
After a two-day consecutive gain, the GBP/USD is gradually approaching the significant resistance level, hovering near 1.2500 during the early hours of Friday's Asian session.
In doing so, the cable pair explains the better Relative Strength Index (RSI), set at 14, not being overbought, and the previous day's rally from the 100-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA).
Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang of UOB Group expect that after 1.2550 is cleared, the upward rate in GBP/USD will pick up speed.
GBP/USD – Technical Outlook
On Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair displays a slight bullish inclination around the 1.2487 mark. At the moment, it encounters substantial resistance at the 1.2505 level, which is apparent on the four-hourly chart. This specific resistance level is strengthened by a triple top pattern within the same timeframe.
Examining the technical indicators, both the RSI and MACD are situated in the purchasing zone, and the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) further indicates a buying tendency. The EMA remains around the 1.2470 mark, with the closing of candles above this particular EMA line promoting an upward movement in GBP.
Upon widening the view on the four-hourly chart, the GBP/USD currency pair has developed an ascending triangle pattern, which generally breaks out in a bullish direction. Consequently, the strategy for today is to seek a buying position above a support level of 1.2445. A bullish break above the 1.2505 resistance level could propel sterling towards the subsequent resistance level of 1.2550. Conversely, if GBP falls below 1.2445, it might aim for the 1.2399 level.
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