S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – Feb 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
S&P 500 (SPX) Index maintained its bullish trend and surged past the 6,116 level in intraday trading, marking an increase of over 1% as investor sentiment improved.
However, the rally was largely driven by US President Donald Trump's decision to postpone the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, alleviating some trade war concerns.
Global markets remained strong, with European indexes set for their eighth consecutive weekly gain. Trump's announcement to hold off on imposing new tariffs suggested a willingness to negotiate, which helped fuel optimism among investors.
However, uncertainty remains as previous tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China continue to impact global trade.
S&P 500 Gains Momentum as US Dollar Weakens and Inflation Remains Sticky
On the other hand, the broad-based US dollar weakened, with the Dollar Index (DXY) dropping to 107.50. This decline came as progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks boosted investor confidence, reducing demand for the safe-haven dollar.
Hence, the weaker dollar typically benefits stocks, and this shift in sentiment helped the S&P 500 gain traction. Investors turned their focus to riskier assets, pushing equities higher as optimism about geopolitical stability improved.
Meanwhile, fresh inflation data from the US showed that price pressures remain strong. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 3.5% in January, exceeding expectations of 3.2%, while core PPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed to 3.6%. These figures indicate that inflation is still sticky, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve may delay its expected interest rate cuts.
Despite these inflation concerns, the S&P 500 continued its upward movement, supported by strong corporate earnings and improved risk appetite. Investors remain hopeful that economic growth and easing geopolitical tensions will sustain the stock market's positive momentum.
Investor Focus on US Retail Sales Data
Moving ahead, investors are keeping an eye on the upcoming US Retail Sales data, which could impact market trends. If sales are strong, it may boost confidence in the economy and support stock market gains. On the other hand, weaker data could raise expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates sooner.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 (SPX) is trading at 6115.08, up 0.01%, as the index continues to hover near record highs despite mixed economic signals.
The benchmark remains supported above its pivot point of 6093.87, indicating a positive underlying trend.
From a technical perspective, the index maintains its position above the 50-day EMA at 6054.58, suggesting sustained bullish sentiment. Immediate resistance is seen at 6128.99, with a potential move toward 6171.70 if the index breaks through.
A successful climb beyond this level could open the path toward 6219.27, marking a new high for the year.
On the downside, immediate support rests at 6049.53, with subsequent levels at 6008.89 and 5969.55. A drop below the 6049 mark may trigger profit-taking and shift sentiment toward the bearish side.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates neutral territory, suggesting room for further gains if buying pressure intensifies.
Fundamental factors also contribute to the cautious optimism, with strong corporate earnings providing support despite concerns about inflation and potential interest rate adjustments.
Recent PPI data showed a modest uptick, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts, which investors are closely monitoring.
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