GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

Daily Price Outlook

- Bearish bias below $1.2955, with the 50 SMA and Fibonacci resistance reinforcing downside pressure.

- Support at $1.2821 is critical—a break below could accelerate the move toward $1.2769 and $1.2720.

- RSI at 38.71 signals increasing bearish momentum, with rallies likely to face resistance unless $1.2955 is reclaimed.

After an aggressive sell-off from $1.3206, the British pound (GBP/USD) has entered a corrective phase, but gains remain capped below the $1.2955 resistance level. The pair is trading just under the 50-period SMA at $1.2957, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement—now acting as resistance.

Price failed to sustain above the key pivot at $1.2913 and is hovering near a critical support zone. If this level breaks, it may open the door toward $1.2821, where the ascending trendline converges with horizontal support.

Downside pressure is reinforced by a sharply falling RSI, currently at 38.71, suggesting bearish momentum still has room to run. The 50 SMA has flattened, pointing to market indecision in the near term. A deeper pullback could extend toward $1.2769 or even $1.2720 if $1.2821 fails to hold.

That said, upside risks remain if GBP/USD can clear $1.2955 decisively. A sustained move higher could see the pair test $1.3014 and $1.3060—levels aligning with the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the recent drop.

However, without a clean break above the 50 SMA and Fibonacci cluster, rallies are likely to face selling pressure. Bias favors the downside as long as price stays below $1.2955. Break below $1.2821 opens room for deeper retracement toward $1.2720.

GBP/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.29548

Take Profit – 1.28216

Stop Loss – 1.30258

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1332/ -$710

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$133/ -$71